Breaking down the Top 10 guards in the Pac-12 Conference (freshmen not included).

1. Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | Junior, 20 years old
G, 6-5, 200

Last season (32.5 MPG): Last season: 15.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 7.3 FTA, 22.8 PER

Outlook: Spencer Dinwiddie quietly had one of the most productive seasons of any point guard in college basketball last year, leading to both team and individual success. A fringe top-100 prospect coming out of high school, Dinwiddie is—in my opinion—now the best point guard in the Pac-12, and has a chance to be a lottery pick in a guard-heavy Draft next June. Standing at 6-5, Dinwiddie has good size, attacks the rim with relative regularity, has offensive versatility and can lock-up his man when focused.

The question marks surrounding his game stem from a lack of assertiveness, skinny frame and below-the-rim athleticism. However, all things considered, Dinwiddie has the talent to significantly impact every college game he plays in.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 66.4% Jump Shots | 23.6% Around the Basket | 9.6% Runner

Half-Court, Pick-and-Roll

Dinwiddie posted an excellent 1.006 points per possession in half court, ranking in the 89th percentile nationally. He has a quick first step to penetrate the defense, and his size makes him hard to stop when he’s in the second level of the defense. This is a big reason why he averaged 7.3 free-throw attempts last season led the Pac-12 and ranked 16th nationally.

Dinwiddie has a polished offensive arsenal—he was an efficient jump shooter last season (.961 PPP, 66th percentile, 48 percent adjusted field goal percentage), utilized a polish floater (.864 PPP, 73rd percentile) and as mentioned racked up a ton of foul shots. He is an advanced ball hander, which is the foundation of his isolation prowess, and is skilled to finish with either hand. His size also gives him an advantage, as he can get clear shooting looks and also back down/overpower smaller guards.

Transition

Dinwiddie was an average transition player last season; he has the requisite size and skill to score/distribute, but sometimes lacks the body control to finish through contact. He hardly goes up for a dunk, and often lacks “NBA burst.”

As the second video shows, Dinwiddie has his fair share of trouble finishing through contact. This is partly due to a lack of athleticism, but also due to a lack of effort and strength. He seems to coast in transition, and it’s frustrating to watch. Finishing with more assertiveness should be at the top of his “to do” list.

Drawing Fouls

When Dinwiddie is keyed in, he attacks the basket relentlessly and is a foul-drawing machine. As mentioned, his 7.3 free-throw attempts last season were most in the Pac-12 and 16th nationally. He drew fouls in both transition (24.1% free throw percentage) and in isolation (28.4%), taking advantage of the bevy of smaller guards in the Pac-12 (Dominic Artis, Jahii Carson, Justin Cobbs, Royce Woolridge, etc).

Overall

In my estimation, Dinwiddie was more of a lead guard than a point guard last season. If he can increase his assist numbers and continue to penetrate the lane, he will solidify himself in the point guard crop. He should also make strides in his isolation game, expanding his offensive arsenal and overall playmaking. Without Andre Roberson to collect rebounds and cause havoc on defense this season, Dinwiddie is now the main cog in Colorado’s attack, and will be held to such a standard. With a strong crop of guards in the Pac-12 (and nationally), I expect Dinwiddie to continue his development as a do-everything point guard and solidify his status as a first-round pick.

 

2. Jahii Carson | Arizona State | Sophomore, 21 years old
PG, 5-11, 180

Last season (37.2 MPG): 18.5 PPG, 5 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 47% FG, 19.9 PER

Outlook: After redshirting his freshman year at ASU because of academic eligibility issues, Jahii Carson had a special debut season for the Sun Devils. Carson quickly solidified himself as one of the best point guards in the country.

Carson is a playmaker that thrives with the ball in his hands. He’s never shy to take a tough shot, and his impact is felt across the board, as he led ASU in points, assists, and minutes last season.

Although only 5-11, Carson has an advanced handle (filthy two-way crossover, and one of those players who can integrate “streetball” moves into a professional setting), a lethal mid-range jump shot, and an excellent first step to get by any player in college basketball. In fact, his 1.13 points per possession in isolation situations ranked better than 96 percent of all college players. And once Carson gets into the lane he’s a near-automatic finisher—his 1.098 points per possession driving right and 1.158 PPP driving left both ranked in the top 10 percent nationally.

So yes, Jahii Carson is a very skilled, very tough, very fun-to-watch basketball player. But that doesn’t mean he’s without room for improvement, and more frankly, without flaws.

Let’s break it down.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: Jump Shots 43.7% | Around the Basket 38.4% | Runner 17.9%

STRENGTHS

Mid-Range Jump Shot

Like any diminutive high-usage star, Carson uses a beautiful mid-range, stop-and-pop jump shot to freeze the opposition and score before he even reaches the second level of the defense. Mid-range jumpers composed 17.3% of his jump shots, and Carson shot an excellent .933 points per possession on such shots, per Synergy Sports.

Whether it’s coming off the pick-and-roll or receiving a catch-and-shoot, Carson quickly rises, floats the ball through the air and knocks down the jump shot. He’s especially dangerous off the pick-and-roll, where he can halt his momentum, freeze the defense and get a shot off.

One of the main reasons why second-level defenders back off Carson and surrender the mid-range is because Carson can finish at the basket. In other words, defenders are left with no choice but to concede a jump shot, which by default is more difficult than a half-open layup.

Another reason Carson is so good at getting open is because he is sometimes literally a step ahead of the defense. He advances the ball so rapidly that when he’s ready to make his move, defenders are still reacting to what happened a second prior. Carson has no hesitation on his decisions, and is extraordinarily nimble in his movements.

Runners

17.9 percent of Carson’s jump shots were in the form of runners, and his .887 points per possession on such shots ranked in the 76th percentile nationally. He also recorded a 53.5 field goal percentage around the basket. Carson has a nice touch on his runners—which speaks to his overall smoothness operating with the ball in his hands—and has underrated body control to finish at weird angles.

Pick-and-Roll

Carson utilized the pick-and-roll on 39.5% of his possessions last season, by far his most used play in the half court. He’ll often start just above half-court and wait for an oncoming pick on the right side. If the defense doesn’t switch, Carson uses his ball-skills/quick first step to get around the pick (and past his original defender) and attack the hoop. If the defense does switch, Carson is still incredibly effective — defenders switched on 14.8 percent of his pick-and-rolls last season, and his 1.308 points per possession in such situations was in the top seven percent nationally.

ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT

Driving Left

Carson is a special player for all the aforementioned reasons—rare speed and craftiness, mid-range shooting and soft touch—there is one facet of his game that continues to linger with me: Carson has serious trouble going left.

Last season, Carson went right on 76.2% of his drives, while going left on only 23.8% of his possessions. Sure, he shot an “excellent” 1.158 points per possession on his drives going left, but when you watch the film (either the clip of his pick-and-rolls above, or the clip below), his discomfort going left is obvious. He often ignores screens on the left side (1:35 in the below clip), or if he does use the screen, attempts to finish with his right hand on the left side (0:10, 0:40).

Shooting Form

While Carson’s game is filled with flair, his shooting form (especially from 3-point range) is fundamentally poor. Carson often fades-away, even if the defense is not playing him tight, which causes him to shoot off-balance. He’s also made it a habit to kick-out his right leg as he releases the ball, again unnecessarily making the shot more difficult. Carson’s release and footwork are crooked — you’re not supposed to land on one leg when you shoot.

Carson posted a below-average .939 points per possession on 3-pointers (42nd percentile), and a decent .931 points per possession on all jump shots (61st percentile), in large part due to his shooting form. Hopefully he spent the off-season refining his jump shot.

OVERALL

There are some more things to nit-pick—like how Carson keeps his head down when he drives—but all things considered, Jahii Carson is among the nation’s “elite” point guards, showing the ability to maximize his skills while running an offense, and attracting serious interest from the NBA. However, there are still questions: How much of an impediment is his size? Can he sustain the success he experienced last season? Can he go left? Can he survive as a below-the-rim player? We should get a much better idea this season.

 

3. Jordan Adams | UCLA | Sophomore, 19 years old
G, 6-5, 220

Last season (31.4 MPG): 15.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.2 SPG, 23.7 PER

Outlook: When UCLA brought in a “hyped” 2012 freshmen class—headlined by the triumvirate of Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker—Jordan Adams slipped under the radar. A few months later, however, Adams was widely considered the most important Bruin, as UCLA’s season was finished when Adams broke his foot in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Only 19 years of age, Adams is a smooth shooter with a ton of upside. He has a beautiful shooting stroke from all three levels on the court, is a deft slasher to the hoop, and has good length at 6-5. Adams is nimble on his feet, can settle into defensive pockets and never hesitates on his shot, both in transition and half court. If you let Adams receive the ball in his spots, he’s automatic.

There are two potential question marks when I observe Adams: 1) Is he athletic enough to compete on the NBA level? He’s not athletically challenged, per se, but he may not have the speed or burst to consistently defend in the NBA. He’s more “fluid and smooth” than explosive. Also, can he contribute beyond solely scoring? He led UCLA with a 23.7 Player Efficiency Rating, but posted pedestrian rebounding and assist numbers.

Nevertheless, Adams has good size at 6-5, and is undoubtedly one of the most skilled shooters in the country.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 70.1% Jump Shots | 21.1% Around the Basket | 7.4% Runner | 1.4% Post Up

TRANSITION

21.8 percent of Adams’ baskets came in transition last season, where he posted an excellent 1.294 points per possession, ranking in the 85th percentile nationally. On film, it’s evident Adams has trouble finishing at- or above-the rim, but he can leak out in transition and convert a jump shot from virtually any spot. In fact, his 1.522 PPP shooting from the left wing in transition, and his 1.386 PPP from the right wing were both in the top 20 percent nationally.

If Adams he gets ahead of the defense, he is an excellent shooter in transition.

MID-RANGE

Adams, for lack of a better term, has a “wet” jump shot. He has the length to get it off whenever he desires, and can shoot off balance. As the film shows, Adams often starts on the interior, roaming the baseline until a crease opens. Once it opens, he quickly settles in, receives a pass and goes up for the shot. For a freshman to have that kind of awareness and mid-range ability is uncanny. He rivals Jahii Carson for the best mid-range in the Pac-12.

CUTTING

Adams posted a remarkable 1.571 points per possession on “cuts”, ranking in the top 3 percent nationally. Ben Howland often had Adams run the baseline against a zone, resulting in easy layups and floaters. Adams can also run around screens—a la Richard Hamilton, or more recently, Tony Snell/Ben MacLemore—to create misdirection and an inch of separation.

ISOLATION

Adams averaged 1 point per possession in isolation situations last season, ranking in the top 10 percentile nationally. Adams uses a strong crossover to get by his man one-on-one, and dips his shoulder while driving to embrace contact. He can also pull-up on a dime, and shoot coming off screens. His vast isolation skill set is displayed below.

DEFENSE

While Adams has NBA size, he’s not particularly quick or explosive, which could make it difficult for him to guard NBA shooting guards. Quicker guards can get around him, and bigger guards with an ounce of explosion will usually make things difficult.

That being said, he has quick hands to disrupt passing lanes and accumulate deflections/steals. He led the Pac-12 with 2.2 steals per game, and his 4.2 steal percentage was 39th in the country, per KenPom.com.

Much of Adams’ freshman season was overshadowed by “what could’ve been”, as he was on the cusp of breaking through in the NCAA Tournament prior to getting injured. I think we should wait to see how Adams’ defense has developed—or possibly even regressed—since last season before making any definitive statements.

OVERALL

Adams quickly established himself as one of the most dangerous scorers in college basketball last season, and firmly put himself on the NBA radar. He was also on pace to have a productive NCAA Tournament before getting injured. These were his totals in the last five games before he went down:

Arizona – 6 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 steals

@ Washington State – 18 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 4 steals

@ Washington – 17 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 steals

Arizona State – 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals

Arizona – 24 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals

With a quick start already this season (16 points last night against a tough Drexel team), Adams should return at full form. He could lead the Pac-12 in scoring, and if he can consistently defend at a high level, he should solidify himself as a first-round talent.

4. Kyle Anderson | UCLA | Sophomore, 20 years old
PG/SF, 6-8, 235

Last season (29.9 MPG): 9.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 20.2 PER

Outlook: On paper, Anderson is one of the most unique players in the country — he’s 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan, with the size of a wing and the skills of a point guard. But for all of his physical gifts and versatility, Anderson is a below-the-rim, flat-footed, Slow Motion (his nickname in high school was literally “Slow Mo”) player who’s lack of athleticism tends to surface at some point every game. Sometimes Anderson looks like he is attacking the defense and proceeding at his own speed, but other times he looks a step behind.

So where does Anderson lie in the context of the NBA Draft? Even after a full year of college basketball, it’s still difficult for me to definitively appraise Anderson’s NBA potential. I say this because I saw him dominate his high school class, but I’m not blind to the athletic shortcomings which hinder him.

Last season, Anderson was an “average” player in both half court and transition. His .938 points per possession in transition situations ranked in the 34th percentile nationally, while his .794 points per possession in the half court ranked in the 49th percentile. Granted, though, UCLA’s crowded backcourt of Larry Drew, Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams made it tough for Anderson to establish a rhythm and find his role in the offense (he averaged the fourth most shot attempts on the team, and played the fourth most minutes).

Let’s take a look at Anderson’s game.

Jump Shot

Anderson posted a below average .667 points per possession in spot up situations, ranking in the bottom 20 percentile nationally. But, for the sake of this evaluation, just disregard those numbers — after all, only 13.3% of his shots were spot-ups.

Simply by watching the video, we can dissect Anderson’s jump shot. He a slow release and poor lift on his shot, basically counteracting his own advantage (height). Defenders can play off him but still have time to contest his shot. Also, on a few of the clips, Anderson unnecessarily fades away on his release.

Runner

Anderson uses his length to get into the paint, and he also sets up in the high post (especially against a zone), so last season we saw him attempt quite a few runners. He was average at best on runners, shooting 33.3% from the field on such attempts, and I think his struggles are directly attributable to 1) his hesitancy to make decisions, and 2) his lack of “burst” in the paint.

In the first clip, Anderson uses a quick crossover to get by his man, but then panics in the paint, throwing up a jump-pass-shot at the rim. Anderson has touch, but man, his lack of self-confidence on drives really held him back last season. Anderson missed more than a few runners at point-blank range.

EURO-STEP?

Because Anderson’s lack of athleticism makes it difficult to finish in open space, after watching some film a thought occured to me: Anderson is a silky-smooth player; why not perfect a smooth Euro-step? If he can time his Euro-step correctly, his length is too much for anyone to stay with him. Here is one example:

DEFENDING JUMP SHOTS

Although very tall and long, Anderson surrendered .983 points per possession on jump shots, ranking in the bottom 30 percentile. When you look at the film, it seems Anderson often inexplicably backs off his man, and stands there ball-watching. This results in easy jump shots for the opposition. I’m not sure if Anderson backs off because he thinks he can fully recover and get a hand up, or because he’s a bit lazy, but as the clips below show, he doesn’t have the type of close-out speed to nonchalantly back off his man.

PICK-AND-ROLL DEFENSE

Anderson length enables him to deflect passes and alter shots—he posted 2.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes, pace adjusted—consistently making his presence felt on the defensive end. However, his lack of athleticism leaves him susceptible to quicker guards, and he often gets beat one-on-one.

Anderson can go under screens and still recover to contest a jump shot, or can go over screens. He can also switch onto a big man, or even blitz-trap a big man in the post, using his length to force a steal (we see this at the :35 second mark).

OVERALL

Perhaps no returning player will have more to prove than Kyle Anderson this season. With a new head coach, new freedom (Larry Drew and Shabazz Muhammad—the two most-featured UCLA backcourt players last season—are gone), and with an entire offseason to retool his game for the college level, Anderson will have a chance to fully prove himself this season. His unique physical makeup and solid floor vision will always intrigue NBA scouts, but questions about athleticism and inability to finish through contact persist as well. If Anderson has true NBA promise, this is the season he’ll show it.

5. CJ Wilcox | Washington | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-5, 195

Last season (34.8 MPG): 16.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 20.7 PER

Outlook: Standing at 6-5, CJ Wilcox’s game revolves around a beautiful jump shot and excellent size for his position (6-5 height and 6-8 wingspan). Wilcox is a dynamic shooter who has a good feel for the game and can score in a variety of ways from the perimeter.

Wilcox is excellent shooting off screens (46 percent), and spotting up (37 percent), where nearly 50 percent of his shot attempts came from. He also shot a solid 37 percent from 3-point range. Case in point: Wilcox is a great shooter. His size and length have also made him an effective slasher, scoring on 61% of his cuts.

There are some reservations with Wilcox as an NBA prospect, mostly because he’ll be 23 next June. This causes some to believe his success is due to maturity rather than basketball acumen. In any case, his size and shooting are too much to simply dismiss.

Wilcox is a pure shooter, but he does have some flaws as a prospect. He’s not particularly adept at creating clean looks off the dribble, and is an average finisher at the rim (1 point per possession, 36th percentile). He developed a fairly reliable floater last season, but he’s still best suited to space the floor as a shooter rather than initiate offense for the team.

Wilcox’s jump shot is definitely praise-worthy, but there are question marks surrounding his lack of finishing ability and also his pedestrian 3.4 free throw attempts last season. In my opinion, much of this stems from a lack of killer instinct — Wilcox needs to adopt a more aggressive mindset on offense.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 72.8% Jump Shots | 16.3% Around the Basket | 8.4% Runner | 2.5% Post Up

STRENGTHS

SHOOTING OFF SCREENS

Wilcox’s favorite shot last season was curling around screens, which composed 24.5 percent of his attempts. He shot an exceptional 46 percent coming off screens. It is equally impressive when viewed on film.

Wilcox can seemingly run off screens for days, and he doesn’t much space to get his shot off. Similar to what New Mexico did with Tony Snell last year, running Wilcox off screens will get the entire offense—and opposing defense—moving, as it creates misdirection and also mismatches when the big men and guards switch.

Wilcox has a quick release on his jump shot, and he’ll make you pay if you give him even an inch of space. He has solid technique and a smooth follow through, and could be the best pure shooter in the Pac-12.

ISOLATION

Wilcox’s 1.04 points per possession in isolation was excellent, as he ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally. He can easily go left as well, making him a two-way threat.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Aggressiveness

Wilcox has a relatively skinny frame, and defenders can throw him off balance with a little contact. He also has trouble “dipping his shoulder,” which factors into him struggling to draw contact and get to the free throw line.

DEFENSE

He has a tendency to remain upright in his stance, basically negating any size and length advantage he has. He posted a poor .975 points per possession in defending isolation plays, ranking in the 13th percentile nationally. On film, it’s obvious his lack of focus, fundamentals, and physicality leave him vulnerable. Let’s take a look at two clips of Wilcox playing on-ball defense.

In this clip, Wilcox stays high in his stance, plays close but without any leverage, is loose on his feet, and unnecessarily goes for the steal. A prime example of how not to play on-ball defense.

Again, here Wilcox doesn’t move well laterally, gets out-muscled and gives up a basket. It’s plays like these that reel in all the “potential” Wilcox has.

Wilcox must adopt a more aggressive mindset, particularly on defense.

OVERALL

Wilcox’s draft range is still wide open. At the least, he should have the ability to be role-player/spot-up shooter/floor-spacer at the NBA level. His length and athleticism are intriguing, and make him versatile. However, several question marks remain. Does his injury history foreshadow an unfortunate reality? Can he get low on defense? Can he start attacking the rim with more purpose? Wilcox has value at the NBA level, but the extent is still unclear.

6. Nick Johnson | Arizona | Junior, 20 years old
G, 6-3, 200

Last season (31.4 MPG): 11.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.9 SPG, 19.3 PER

Outlook: Nick Johnson has had an up-and-down first two seasons at Arizona. He ran into trouble as an undersized shooting guard, and has spent last year refining his game to become more of a lead guard. Johnson is a savvy guard with terrific on-ball defense and athleticism.

However, he struggles to create his own shot, and offensively relies more on athleticism than skill, which hinders him when trying to beat his man or score through contact.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 63.7% Jump Shots | 12.7% Runner | 19% Around the Basket | 4.6% Post-Ups

PICK-AND-ROLL DEFENSE

Johnson posted an above-average .658 points per possession defending the pick-and-roll last season, which ranked in the 60th percentile nationally. However, on tape, Johnson looks like a terrific—not above-average—pick and roll defender.

Johnson applies constant pressure while moving with his man laterally. He goes under screens, but has the speed and instincts to fully recover and close-out on his man. He can also hedge towards the big man just enough to take away a possible passing lane, and still be in position to contest the “open” jump shot. I don’t think there’s any doubt who Sean Miller will rely on to guard the best guard on the opposing team this season.

CATCH-AND-SHOOT 3-POINT SHOOTING

Offensively, last season Johnson recorded a 51.6 effective field goal percentage, and shot 39 percent from 3-point range.

However, how he created those shot opportunities played a significant role in the outcome. Johnson was particularly effective on catch-and-shoot jump shots—which composed 33% of all his jump shot attempts—where his 1.243 points per possession ranked in the 87th percentile nationally.

In “off the dribble” jump shots, though, Johnson’s .864 points per possession ranked worse than 76 percent of all players. The snippet of film below demonstrates why: When Johnson creates off the dribble, he doesn’t have a great feel for what he’s doing, and loses himself; it’s almost as if the ball is “hot potato,” trying to get rid of it at the first possible opportunity. This lends itself to poor decision making and inconsistent shooting form. In the clip below, Johnson shoots a total of 10 times, and all 10 times his lower body moved differently. On some shots his hips weren’t squared, on others he brought his feet together, and on others he was leaning sideways.

Johnson has proper form on catch-and-shoot attempts, but his athletic (rather than skilled) makeup surfaces when creating off the dribble.

TRANSITION

29.9 percent of Johnson’s shot attempts came in transition, where he posted a decent 1.008 points per possession (46th percentile). Johnson can fly through the air, but without ball skills, his athleticism in the open court can only take him so far.

DRIVING

Johnson’s lack of ball handling/offensive moves is also evident in his (non-existent) isolation game. His .417 points per possession on drives ranked in the bottom 9 percent nationally, which indicates he will need to do more than just attack the paint for an aerial jaunt.

OVERALL

Johnson was at one point considered to be a one-and-done prospect, but he has encountered his share of troubles at Arizona. He should play a true combo-guard role this year. If he can prove to be more than just an explosive athlete who can play defense and make open shots—as in, if he finally expands his offensive repertoire—he could be an intriguing prospect next June.

 

7. Dominic Artis | Oregon | Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 185

Last season (23.8 MPG): 8.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 14.1 PER

Mobile: 510-415-3800

Outlook: Standing at 6-1, Dominic Artis is a gritty Oakland-bred point guard with playmaking ability in the half court, and a smooth jump shot from 3-point range. Artis is short and doesn’t have much athleticism to boast, but he’s a tough kid who projects to have an upward trajectory throughout his career at Oregon. Obviously, that “upward trajectory” has been paused at the moment, due to a recent nine-game suspension for selling shoes illicitly.

As a freshman, Artis contributed with shooting (particularly from deep), passing and—despite his size—playing impressive on-ball defense. However, his offensive game was limited; he struggled to do anything inside the 3-point line, struggled finishing in the paint and was even worse in transition. If he’s going to develop into an NBA prospect—a la, say, an Isaiah Cannon—Artis will need to iron out every kink in his offensive game while consistently defending at a strong level. The bright side: he has time to do so.

Shot Attempt Breakdown:

67% Jump Shots — 1.053 points per possession (80th percentile), 39.4 FG%

20.3% Around the Basket — 1.05 PPP (45th percentile), 52.5 FG%

12.7% Runner — .32 PPP (6th percentile), 16 FG%

STRENGTHS: Three-Point Shooting, Floor Vision

NEEDS TO IMPROVE: Transition Scoring, Developing a Runner, Transition Turnovers

STRENGTHS

Three-Point Shooting

Sixty-five percent of Artis’ jump shot attempts were from 3-point range, where he shot an excellent 1.221 points per possession (95th percentile), and shot an overall 41% from deep.

Artis can shoot off the dribble, or catch-and-shoot. He is dangerous either way, and must be accounted for at all times. What’s interesting is Artis wasn’t a strong jump shooter in high school; if that’s any indication, he’ll hopefully improve the rest of his game in due time as well.

Floor Vision

Artis sees the floor extremely well, mostly in the half court. His 26.9 assist percentage (the percentage of teammate field goals Artis assisted while he was on the floor) was most on Oregon and ranked 6^th in the Pac-12.

As the tape shows, Artis can make both the simple and difficult pass, and can thread-the-needle when neccesary. He seems to know where his teammates are, on the wing wing, in the post, or a trailer in transition.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Transition Turnovers

Twenty percent of Artis’ plays were in transition last season. Unfortunately for Oregon, he scored an abysmal 0.6 points per possession in transition, which ranked in the bottom four percentile nationally(!). Artis would often turn the ball over before he could even get a shot up, either by throwing an ill-advised pass or by getting stripped. In fact, he turned the ball over on 21 of his 70 transition opportunities last season (30%), an inefficient rate to say the least.

Transition Scoring

Because of Artis’ diminutive size and lack of athleticism, he often has to finish around bigger defenders in transition. He struggles to draw contact (only 1.9 free throw attempts per game), struggles going left, and has a tough time finishing at the rim. In order to finish with more consistency, Artis should develop some sort of “runner,” which is what we’ll examine next.

Runners

Considering he was so effective in the paint during high school, it was very surprising that Artis struggled so mightily on his floater last season. He shot runners on only 12.7 percent of his attempts, posting a 0.32 points per possession, which ranked in the bottom six percent nationally.

Because he is so small, defenders can stay with Artis and contest his drives. To combat this, he should either develop some kind of hesitation move (a step-back, maybe), or ideally, a smooth runner. If you’re a small guard in a transition-heavy setting, it’s essential to have a reliable floater/runner. This will make you unpredictable, keeping the dense on its toes and in turn creating opportunities for others.

Defensive Gambles

It would be foolish to say Artis is a “poor” defender. In fact, most people would say Artis is a great defender — he slides his feet well, and his 3.8 steals percentage last season ranked 93rd nationally, per KenPom.com. So, yes, Dominic Artis is a good defender. In fact, earlier in this evaluation I said Artis is an “impressive defender”.

But that doesn’t mean he’s perfect. Sure, Artis is a good defender, but he also cost his team numerous baskets last season due to easily-avoidable mistakes. Artis gambles a lot on defense; he sometimes gets overzealous with his quick hands, lunging toward his defender and giving him an open lane to blow by him. There are even times when he simply plays unnecessarily tight near the half-court line. If he gets beat at half court, Artis doesn’t have the length or speed to recover.

Artis should tweak his defensive habits to stay sound and only apply pressure when necessary. I think he will, but I also think it’s something worth monitoring.

OVERALL

Artis’ college career has been up and down to this point. He started off his career playing very well, as he was the starting point guard for an Oregon team that began the season 18-2. Then, in late January, he went down with a near-broken ankle, and subsequently missed the next nine games. When he returned to action, Johnathan Loyd was playing too well for Dana Altman to go back to Artis. As a result, Artis never regained his initial form.

Assuming he returns to the starting lineup after his suspension is over, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments—if any—Artis worked on over the summer. Has he developed a floater? Can he handle pressure in the open court? Has he ironed out the kinks on defense? Playing on a stacked Oregon team, Artis will certainly have opportunities. It’s on him to produce.

8. Justin Cobbs | California | Senior, 22 years old
G, 6-2, 190

Last season (35.6 MPG): 15.1 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.5 RPG, 45 percent FG%, 4.6 FTA, 18.5 PER

Outlook: With Allen Crabbe gone, Justin Cobbs will be the unquestioned leader of California this season, and has a chance to have a breakout all Pac-12 year. Cobbs is California’s top returning scorer (15.1 PPG), was fourth in the Pac-12 in assists last season (4.8), and top-150 nationally in assist percentage. He is hoping to convince scouts his skills can translate to the NBA level.

Cobbs is a strong playmaker in the half court, as he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can both initiate and facilitate offense for his team. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks and get himself to the free-throw line (4.6 free throws per game last season). Cobbs is also durable, as he played the 7th most minutes in the Pac-12 last season. He reportedly had a strong showing at the Deron Williams Skills Academy in June, and hopefully got some candid feedback from NBA scouts.

Average ball handling skills, and inconsistent decision-making required at point guard is what’s holding Cobbs back right now. He often gets trapped on the pick-and-roll, leading to an excess of turnovers and chaotic possessions. Nevertheless, now fully recovered from a foot injury he sustained earlier in the summer, Cobbs will have a great opportunity to prove himself this season.

Let’s take a look at Cobbs’ offensive arsenal; namely, his half-court scoring ability, and how he can improve in transition and pick-and-roll situations.

Shot Selection: 73.9% Jump Shots | 8.7% Runners | 15.4% Around the Basket | 2% Post Ups

HALF-COURT SCORING

Cobbs has a diverse half court game, as he can shoot from outside and also penetrate the lane. He has a smooth crossover, and when in a rhythm, can dictate the tempo and course of the game.

Seventy-four percent of Cobbs’ attempts were jump shots, where he produced .95 points per possession (65th percentile nationally), and 15.4% of his attempts were “around the basket,” where he posted an excellent 1.304 points per possession (86th percentile). Jabari Bird and Tyrone Wallace provide Cobbs with some weapons despite Allen Crabbe’s departure.

TRANSITION STRUGGLES

Cobbs struggled in transition last season, where his lack of size, athleticism and finishing ability made it difficult to score.

In the first sequence above, he can’t convert over the length of a UNLV help defender; in the second sequence, Cobbs can’t convert over 6-10 forward Travis Wear; uber-long Kyle Anderson easily blocks Cobbs in the third sequence; in the fourth, Cobbs attempts to dip his shoulder into the lane, but can’t covert; and in the fifth clip, Cobbs misses a point-blank layup.

Cobbs will need to find ways to compensate for his lack of athleticism in transition—perhaps by incorporating a runner (used on only 4.5% of possessions last season), developing a hesitation move or improving his pull-up jump shot.

PICK-AND-ROLL STRUGGLES

Lacking elite speed and ball handling, Cobbs turned the ball over on 17.5% of his pick-and-rolls last season. As the film shows, defenders had success trapping him, using their length to eliminate any bail-out pass and essentially suffocate him into turning the ball over. Cobbs also had trouble keeping his dribble alive, where he would either attempt a jump-pass or a shot attempt from an unreasonable distance.

Cobbs needs to work on keeping his head up, and making decisions in a reactive—instead of thought-out—way.

OVERALL

Cobbs isn’t a traditional point guard in my estimation, but he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can penetrate the defense. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks.

Overall, if Cobbs can increase his assist numbers, develop his handle and show more I’m the best point guard on the court ability, I think NBA attention will come his way. However, even if he does prove to be a dynamic playmaker, with his athletic shortcomings, it will be tough for him to be a legitimate point guard on the NBA level.

9. Royce Woolridge | Washington State (via Kansas) | Junior, 21 years old
G, 6-2, 180

Last season (32.0 MPG): 11 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 15.1 PER

Outlook: After committing to Kansas as an eighth grader, Woolridge had a brief stay in Lawrence, transferring after a freshman year in which he played a measly 2.8 minutes per game.

Woolridge is first and foremost a polished scorer. He has a quick first step and a wide frame to maneuver his way and score through traffic. He’s an excellent shooter, both in catch-and-shoot and off the dribble situations, and is also a solid pick-and-roll player. Woolridge is not very athletic, and doesn’t have exceptional speed, but he has a polished game and the ability to stick to his strengths.

All things considered, in my opinion Woolridge has the skill set to be considered at the NBA level. However, he faces one (potentially) monstrous problem: he’s a shooting guard in the body of a point guard. At only 6-2, Williams is undersized to play SG, but his skill set is of a “shooting guard.” If he can develop his facilitating skills and become more of a playmaker—and this is a big “if”, considering it requires him to reinvent his game—he’ll have a chance to prove himself at the next level. If he stays as a one-dimensional college scorer, he probably won’t have a chance.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 55.3% Jump Shots | 37.1% Around the Basket | 7.6% Runner

STRENGTHS

Isolation

Woolridge posted a .908 points per possession in isolation situations, ranking in the 79th percentile nationally. He has a developing arsenal of moves, highlighted by an ability to attack going right. He also seems to drive at the perfect angle, using his hips to shield the defender and maintain a clear look at the basket. He can also use a step-back when driving at full speed, to create separation and knock down a jump shot. Examples are below:

Spot Up / Catch-and-Shoot

Woolridge also displayed a soft shooting touch last season, posing a solid 1.074 PPP in spot-up situations (81st percentile), and an excellent 1.271 PPP in catch-and-shoot situations (90th percentile). In fact, he was even better in “guarded” catch-and-shoots than “unguarded” catch-and-shoots, showcasing the ability to create and covert difficult shots. Let’s take a look at his spot-up ability, followed by his catch-and-shoot ability.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Facilitating

Although he led Washington State with 2.7 assists per game, on film it’s evident Woolridge has a score-first mindset. Granted, there weren’t many options for him to pass to, but if he’s going to make the transition to point guard, Woolridge will have to expand his mindset to look for his teammates as much as he looks for his own shot.

Pick-and-Roll

Woolridge’s struggles playing the point are perhaps most applicable in the pick-and-roll. Again, it’s not like his teammates were the most active off the ball, but still, as the clip below demonstrates, Woolridge was easily flustered on the P-n-R. He would often pick up his dribble and subsequently throw up an ill-advised jump shot, or defenders would expose his ball handling by trapping him and forcing a turnover (0:25 mark).

OVERALL

Woolridge was the Cougars’ second-leading scorer and assist leader in his first season with the team. Now as a junior, he will be handed the keys to the offense and given the freedom to make plays. If he can expand his game to develop his point guard skills (ball handling, patience, floor vision), he’ll take steps in the right direction.

10. Roberto Nelson | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-4, 195

Last season (31.3 MPG): Last season: 17.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, 22.4 PER

Mobile: 805-698-7838

Outlook: Standing at 6-4, Roberto Nelson is a sharpshooting guard with terrific range on his jump shot and the ability to score in bunches. Nelson is a terrific spot-up shooter, and is excellent coming off screens. He quickly sets his feet and can rise for a shot.

Problem is—and I don’t mean to sound insubstantial or dismissive—Nelson is athletically challenged, and the scope of his NBA potential doesn’t extend past being a good shooter. He doesn’t have a noteworthy dribble-drive game, is a poor on-ball defender, is an average passer/rebounder, and has difficulty handling the ball against pressure. Perhaps Nelson could carve out a niche as a spot-up sharpshooter in the NBA, but as of now it seems unlikely.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 56.5% Jump Shots | 34.6% Around Basket | 5.2% Post Ups | 3.7%

STRENGTHS

Spot Up

Nelson shot an excellent 1.088 points per possession on spot-up situations, ranking in the 83rd percentile nationally. Spot-up shooting is Nelson’s biggest strength.

Nelson can find open spots within the defense, and is always ready to release. He has solid shooting form, and can heat up to either extend or shrink a lead in a matter of minutes. There’s not much to criticize about Nelson’s shooting.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Transition

Nelson posted a below average .938 points per possession “around the basket”, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. Faster and more athletic defenders can easily disrupt Nelson’s attempts at the rim. Again, Nelson can shoot open 3′s, but he struggles to create off the dribble/facilitate for teammates.

Pick-and-Roll

Nelson’s lack of quickness negatively affects his pick-and-roll ability. He recorded an extraordinarily high 20.4 turnover rate on pick-and-rolls last season, and shot 32 percent on such plays. Defenders can easily blitz-trap Nelson, making him pick up his dribble almost automatically.

Pick-and-Roll Defense

I wouldn’t be so hard on Nelson if, for all of his offensive shortcomings, he were at least a decent defender. But he struggled on defense as well last season. In defending the pick-and-roll, Nelson doesn’t get down in a proper defensive stance, has trouble moving his feet laterally, hardly applies resistance, and—due to a combination of technique and a skinny frame—can get out-muscled. Nelson’s lack of speed automatically calls for the big man to “switch,” which will often causes a mismatch. Not a good look here.

OVERALL

Nelson is a very tough kid (his mother passed away when he was younger, and his father has been in prison for most of Roberto’s college career, yet he’s managed to keep his focus and play well), but his upside doesn’t extend past being a good spot-up shooter. In my opinion, it will be difficult for him to carve out a nice in the NBA.

Breaking down the Top 10 forwards/centers in the Pac-12 (freshmen, and UCLA’s Tony Parker, not included).

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1. Dwight Powell | Stanford | Senior, 22 years old
PF, 6-10, 235

Last season: 14.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 23.3 PER

Breakdown: With great size, terrific shooting range and a quick first step, Dwight Powell is one of the most skilled big men in the country. A top-50 recruit out of high school in 2010, Powell finally “turned the corner” last season, as he stepped up in the role of Stanford’s best player. His 26.5 usage percentage ranked 7th in the Pac-12, and he was one of only two “big men” among the top 10.

Powell was very efficient in the half court, where 96.4% of his offense occurred. He shot 47% from the field, and his .933 points per possession (PPP) in the half court ranked in the top 22% of all college players. Powell isn’t the most athletic player, but he compensates with a 7-foot wingspan and an inside-outside touch. He can face up, catch-and-shoot, and attack the basket off the dribble.

Powell can score rather convincingly on the college level. In addition to scoring, he can also rebound—his 24% defensive rebounding percentage ranked 48th nationally, per Kenpom.com.

Shot distribution: 29.9% Jump Shots | 5% Runner | 40.8% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 24.3% Post-Ups

AROUND THE BASKET SCORING

As mentioned before, Powell can score from all three levels, especially in the half court. Let’s take a look at his post scoring, where he attempted 65% of his shots.

Powell shot a productive .833 PPP in post-ups, ranking among the top 60% nationally, and his 1.281 PPP in “around the basket” situations ranked in the top 18% nationally. Powell doesn’t receive “traditional post-ups” deep on the block, but he can set up in the high post and knows how to leverage for position down low.

While he is effective in the paint, Powell’s best skill is his ability to spot up and shoot from virtually anywhere. His quick release and smooth stroke keeps defenders on their toes, disrupting their timing and giving Powell a split-second edge.

SHOOTING

Powell’s .986 PPP in spot-up situations was a solid mark. Furthermore, he can operate on both sides of the floor (48.1% of offense from the right side of the court; 51.9% from the left side).

However, if you watch closely, virtually every jumpshot attempt was either from a no-dribble or one-dribble stance. While it is efficient to minimize dribbles, Powell’s (lack of) off-the-dribble jump shooting is a cause for concern. His .364 PPP shooting off the dribble ranked in the bottom 6% nationally.

Many praise Powell for his rip-through ability and quick release, but in my opinion if Powell doesn’t develop his off the dribble game, he’ll run into trouble once he starts facing NBA close-out speed and athleticism. Powell’s entire effectiveness is predicated on keeping the defense on its toes; the next step is developing his off the dribble jump shooting.

PASSING

Powell is also a very skilled post passer. His 1.44 PPP on passing out of the post when the defense commits ranked in the top 4% of all college players. As the film shows, Powell has a keen sense of where his double-teams are coming from, and where his open teammates are located. He seems to read cuts before they happen, and is a deft jump-passer. He’s not hesitant to make the correct “basketball play” (i.e. kicking it out to his shooters on the perimeter if their defender slides over to help), and he can pass with either hand.

It’s unclear how much post potential Powell has in the NBA, but his court vision and outside shooting should carry over to the next level.

OVERALL

Powell will be 23 next July, so if he’s going to bring it all together, the time is now. His jump shooting and soft touch have him on the NBA radar. If he continues to rebound and can develop his handle a little further, he has a chance to be a first round pick.

2. Brandon Ashley | Arizona | Sophomore, 19 years old
F, 6-8, 235

Last season (20.5 MPG): 7.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 17.5 PER, 53% field goals

A McDonald’s All-American and top-20 recruit out of high school, to me Brandon Ashley is one of the most intriguing players in the country. He’s a gifted athlete with a silky-smooth flow and physical attributes (6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan). Ashley a deft slasher with exceptional timing around the basket.

I think it boils down to this: Ashley has first-round-pick talent, but in order to maximize said talent, he will have to improve 1) his ball handling and 2) his assertiveness. Improving his “weaknesses” won’t be easy, but the good news is that unlike the majority of NBA draft prospects, Ashley’s potential and areas of growth are completely transparent, for better or worse.

In other words, the versatility is there, the rebounding (Ashley’s 21.4 defensive rebound percentage was 9^th in Pac-12, and 129^th nationally) is there, the defense is there. But attacking off the dribble, and more importantly the necessary motor, are not yet there.

Shot distribution: 27.9% Jump Shots | 51.9% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 13% Post-Ups | 7.1% Runner

Ashley is in the Austin Daye/Tayshaun Prince mold — he can guard both forward positions on defense, and on offense can run the baseline, roam the perimeter and slash through the lane.

51.9% of his shots came around the basket last season, with 21.5% of those shot attempts coming from cuts to the hoop. Ashley’s length, bounce and timing make him a promising slasher.

CUTTING

———

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

15.4% of Ashley’s shot attempts came off offensive rebounds (put backs), where he posted a solid 1.225 PPP (77th percentile).

As mentioned before, when Ashley is focused, his instincts and timing separate him from the pack.

———

Ashley will have to elevate his game this season, and a major part of that “elevation” will hinge on his ability to put the ball on the floor and attack. This season, his focus needs to be on attacking the hoop with a refined intensity.

WEAK DRIVES

In the snippet of film above, Ashley is either “soft” attacking the rim, or his poor ball skills throw him into an off-balance shot. Ashley needs to put on weight, and develop (even if it’s just a little bit) his ball skills. If he can attack the rim while maintaining balance and position, his impact will be more than just a rebounder/slasher/active defender.

In other words, can Brandon Ashley—the epitome of versatility—impose his will? Does he have it in him? We certainly thought so coming out of high school, but now in year two, the pressure is starting to surface.

3. Kaleb Tarczewski | Arizona | Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 7-0, 255

Last season (22 MPG): 6.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 54% field goal percentage, 2.5 personal fouls, 15 PER

Pace-Adjusted Per 40 Minutes: 11.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 4.5 personal fouls

Breakdown:

A top-10 recruit coming out of high school, Kaleb Tarczewski had a revealing freshman season. He flashed glimpses of immense potential, and also showcased where he needs to improve.

Tarczewski is a supremely athletic and mobile center, running the floor smoothly and getting up to finish put-backs and infuse activity at the rim. His scoring contributions were mostly in the paint last season, where 99% of his shot attempts came from (58.4% around the basket; 40.3% Post-Ups). He shot a solid 58% around the basket, and made his mark felt on the offensive glass, where his 11.9% offensive rebounding percentage was second in the Pac-12 and 129th in the country.

On defense, Tarczewski held opponents to .57 PPP, an exceptional rate that ranked in the top 93% of the country. His mobility and length on the block, coupled with strong defensive instincts, have created for a very high defensive ceiling.

With a maturing frame and skill set, Tarczewski’s NBA prospects look very promising. He should play at least 30 minutes per game this season, and starting alongside uber-athletes Aaron Gordon and Brandon Ashley in the frontcourt should bring out the best in Tarczewski.

Let’s break down the “glimpses,” both good and bad, that we saw last season:

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS (PUT-BACKS)

Tarczewski positions himself well and has the length/timing to grab a ton of rebounds, but he struggles to finish the second chance opportunities. His .931 PPP on put-backs ranked in the bottom 30% nationally, and even on video, it’s evident why. Tarczewski needs to improve his hand-eye coordination, and often seems to be “thinking” rather than playing instinctively. It’s almost as if he’s thinking “OK, I got the rebound. Let me regroup, bring the ball low, and now go up for a lay-up or dunk .” As he continues to repeat this process, he should gradually start reacting instead of thinking.

Also, when Tarczewski catches a put-back above the rim, he should never bring the ball down with him. At some point, put-back dunks (like we see in the last clip) should become routine.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Similar to his offensive rebounding, Tarczewski will need to improve his hand-eye coordination on the pick-and-roll. He finished a decent 1.273 PPP (88th percentile) on pick-and-rolls, and because he is a threat in the vicinity of the rim, defenses must always keep an eye on him. If Tarczewski can roll harder off the screen, he should get a ton of easy buckets next season. This is a potential breakout area for Tarczewski.

CONTESTING SHOTS

Because of his length and quickness, Tarczewski can contest shots both in the paint and on the perimeter. His length also allows him to keep his distance from the pick-and-roll ball handler (thus obstructing the roll man) while being able to contest a jumpshot from a foot away.

OVERALL

Tarczewski plays hard and looks like he can be a very good defender. The main question going forward is whether or not he can develop into a low-post threat — Put backs and pick-and-rolls have their respective value, but you need to have some semblance of an offensive game to make it in the NBA. With so much still unknown, this year will play an integral role in gauging Tarczewski’s NBA potential.

4. Josh Scott | Colorado | Sophomore, 20 years old
PF, 6-10, 215

Last season (28.2 MPG): 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 19 PER

Breakdown:

Shot distribution:

13.7% Jump Shots
42.3% Around the Basket (not Post-Ups)
43.6% Post-Ups

Josh Scott’s freshman season was more of a teaser than anything else. His NBA future is contingent on how he continues to develop. Sure, this can be said for any college player, but for Scott, his potential is really the only exciting/enjoyable/inspiring facet.

Scott is a rangy and mobile big-man with a feathery touch around the rim using his left hand (he’s a lefty). He uses long strides and quickness to get ahead of the defense in transition, and many times last season finished fast breaks as the trailer.

In the half court, Scott mainly scores in three ways: 1) he slides into open spaces to get a quick shot (i.e. no dribbles) from the elbow or low post, or 2) he scores on a put-back — 18.4% of his shots came off offensive rebounds, and he posted a very solid 1.131 PPP—better than 67% of all college players—on such plays. Furthermore, his offensive rebound percentage of 11.8% was third in Pac-12 and 132 nationally, per KenPom.com. He’s an alert—albeit awkward, which we will get to—big man with a nose for the ball, and doesn’t need to be featured in the offense to be productive (again, last season he scored mostly on hustle plays and second-chance opportunities).

Let’s take a look at where Scott was most effective as a freshman

TRANSITION

15-FOOTERS

PUT-BACKS

Scott does a nice job in all three facets, but to make it on the NBA level, he needs to improve in several areas.

Firstly, his 215-pound frame isn’t doing him any favors. Opposing big men can easily bully Scott in the paint on both sides of the ball. He needs to gain 15-20 pounds to be able to bang down low. If he can add weight and maintain his touch and agility, Scott could considerably elevate his game.

Secondly, on film Scott appears “slow,” both in getting to a spot and also releasing his shot. He compensates with great size, but his going-through-the-motions appearance concerns me. Scott needs to improve his hand-eye coordination, as has difficulty catching the ball in stride. He also makes elementary mistakes, like holding the ball down low on entry passes and rebounds, which contributed to a 10.7% turnover percentage, ranking 5th worst in the Pac-12. Let’s take a look at Scott on the pick-and-roll, and also in turnover situations.

Scott can knock down jumpshots as a roll man, but he has difficulty finishing through contact, or even driving by a stationary defender. In terms of turnovers, Scott gets flustered under pressure, picks up his dribble, and keeps it low – a recipe for disaster.

OVERALL

Scott posted solid numbers as a freshman (19 PER, 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG), and validated his potential. Although he’s not the most athletic player, Scott’s size, rebounding, and inside touch make him an intriguing prospect. If he can gain weight and become more consistent on offense, he should emerge on the NBA Draft radar.

5. Mike Moser | Oregon (via UNLV via UCLA) | Senior, 22 years old
6-8, 210

Last season (21.3 MPG): 7.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 14 PER

Per 40 Minutes Pace Adjusted: 12.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG

Breakdown:

After previous stints at UCLA and UNLV, Mike Moser enters Oregon as a fifth-year senior with a lot to prove. Moser had a great 2011-’12 campaign at UNLV, and after deciding to return to school, he suffered a dislocated elbow early last season that at the moment seems to have derailed his NBA plans.

Moser’s best skill is rebounding, as he uses his length and explosiveness to collect boards from all over the court. He can also shoot the ball semi-consistently. But he’s very skinny, and doesn’t have much of an offensive repertoire. Is Moser still—and does he have enough to be—a legitimate NBA prospect? Let’s take a look at some film:

FINISHING AROUND THE RIM

Moser has exceptional athleticism and strong hands to finish around the rim, both in the half court and transition. He can track down the ball in transition, and can rise for a dunk when set up in the half court. Although he’s not particularly skilled, he shot a solid 54.5% around the basket last season, lending credence to his potential in that area.

REBOUNDING

Moser’s calling card has always been rebounding. He 23.4% defensive rebounding percentage last season ranked 65^th in the country, and he was 9^th in defensive rebounding percentage during his “breakout” season two years ago.

PICK-AND-POP, SHOOTING

46.3% of Moser’s shot attempts last season were of the jumpshot variety. As seen in the clip above (apologies for the excessive “slow motion”), Moser has range on his jumpshot when given space. He’s agile enough to set wide screens and quickly pop out for a jumpshot, or to roll hard to the basket. If Moser has an NBA future, his jumpshot will play an integral role. He’s not a 3-point shooter, but Moser can knock it down from 17-feet.

DEFENSE

Moser’s 0.582 PPP defending jumpshots ranked in the 93rd percentile, as he has the length and athleticism to alter shots in his vicinity. However, because he is so frail, opposing bigs can easily back him down and bully him. His 1 PPP allowed on Post-Ups ranked in the bottom quarter of all college players, and this problem has followed him throughout his college career.

OVERALL

Nobody questions Moser’s athleticism and rebounding ability. But many have questions about his skinny frame, his lack of traditional post moves, how he’ll fit at Oregon and, frankly, what upside he has left. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, Moser has one last chance to prove himself.

6. Eric Moreland | Oregon State | Senior, 21 years old
6-10, 215

Last season (30.7 MPG): 9.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 21.6 PER, 57% FG

Breakdown:

Eric Moreland’s NBA profile starts with his physical attributes. Standing 6-10 with a reported 7-4 wingspan, Moreland is a lanky power forward whose game is predicated on athleticism and energy. Moreland runs the floor well, is mobile and fluid, and can accumulate rebounds, deflections and blocks in a hurry

He has all the physical attributes, but Moreland must continue to develop his floor skills to be taken seriously at the next level. He made progress last season, improving his scoring average by more than four points per game. Moreland extended his range out to the foul line/elbow area last season, which was a huge step considering that two years ago he was essentially a center playing in a (skinny) power forward frame, which, obviously, was alarming.

Last season, Moreland finished seventh in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounds, 4th in defensive rebounds, 2nd in blocks, and 2nd in rebounds per game. His 27.5% defensive rebound percentage ranked 5th in the country, and his 8.1 block percentage was 68th nationally. He also shot the ball very efficiently, as his 59% effective field goal percentage ranked 64th in the country.

CUTTING

———

Moreland can undoubtedly use his bounce and length to make plays in the paint. Overall though, Moreland sill has a lot to improve on in the half court. At 6-10, only 6.5% of his offense came from the post. Now this would be OK if he did damage from the perimeter, but he was even worse there — his .462 PPP on “off the dribble” jumpshots ranked in the bottom 14% of all college players. He was also rarely used in the pick-and-roll last year, as he had one possession as the P&R ball handler, and only 6 possessions as the P&R screener.

Moreland can score in the half court, but in order to do so he needs someone to facilitate for him. He does a lot of work catching the ball on the move, or when the defense is out of position. But in terms of pure isolation and/or spot-up situations, he possesses neither the necessary ball handling nor shooting skills to be effective.

SHOOTING

As the video shows, Moreland’s shooting form is all sorts of whacky. He does a fade-away leg-kick on his jumpshots. Hopefully he worked on his shooting form over the summer — jumping straight up and down, correct finger and hand placement, and releasing the ball at its highest point. That’s a broken jumpshot for sure.

———

DEFENSE

Moreland’s defense is also—quite literally—a step behind. His .9 PPP allowed ranked in the bottom 27% of the country, and his rebounding and shot blocking prowess notwithstanding, Moreland can be exposed in the half court. Let’s take a look at three clips from a game against Towson where Moreland struggles on defense.

In this clip, Towson’s Jerrelle Benimon swiftly blows by Moreland for an easy reverse layup. Moreland’s initial stance is forcing Benimon to go baseline, so the Towson forward takes what is given for the easy bucket. This is due to a lack of focus early on in the possession and a lack of foot speed once he’s beat.

In this clip, Moreland’s skinny frame gets taken advantage of. Using three dribbles, Benimon takes Moreland from the 3-point line to the basket for an easy bucket. Moreland applied zero resistance.

This basket is directly attributable to a lack of focus early in the possession. Towson guard Mike Burwell catches the ball in rhythm and simply goes up for the shot. Moreland—even with his freakish length—is late to recover.

———

OVERALL

Moreland has physical attributes NBA teams covet, but his skill set is a few steps behind right now. The odds are against him, but if he can develop his handle, improve his focus and shooting form—all while continuing to rebound and be active on defense—he’ll have a chance at the NBA.

7. Jordan Bachynski | Arizona State | Senior, 24 years old
C, 7-2, 250

Last season (25.4 MPG): 9.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.4 BPG, 21.5 PER

Breakdown:

Jordan Bachynski is a tough prospect for me to evaluate. He enrolled as a 21-year-old freshman at Arizona State, after spending two years on a Mormon mission.

So, is he a grown man playing against boys, or is he merely catching up to where he should be? Has Bachynski already reached his ceiling, or is he still trending upwards? I am honestly unsure of how to approach his evaluation.

Age notwithstanding, Bachynski emerged on the radar during his “junior” season. Offensively, he is a traditional back to the basket center, priding himself on setting screens, finishing in the paint and blocking shots on defense. The lefty showcased nice touch inside, utilizing hook shots over his right shoulder to score. He has strong hands and consistently leverages himself to catch the ball deep in the paint, minimizing the distance between himself and the basket, in turn creating easier scoring opportunities.

Bachynski is an above-average rebounder for his size. 15.4% of his shot attempts last season came on offensive rebounds, where he shot a very good 1.225 PPP (78th percentile). His most promising skill, though, may be his shot blocking ability—Bachynski’s 13.5 block percentage was 7^th best in the country. He possesses a rare skill set (the “traditional” center skill set), which has intrigued scouts.

Let’s take a look at some film:

POST-UPS

Bachynski shot 58% from the field last season, with over 90% of his shot attempts coming in the paint. As mentioned, Bachynski gets in position and finishes with a soft touch inside. That being said, he must continue to get stronger, as he will face more physical (and more skilled) defenders if he gets an NBA opportunity. Bachynski must also develop his right hand, as he shot with his left hand on 80% of his post-up attempts.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Standing at 7-2, operating out of the pick-and-roll will be essential to Bachynski’s NBA prospects. 13.6% of Bachynski’s offense came in pick-and-roll, where his 1.426 PPP ranked in the 95^th percentile nationally.

As the film shows, he has impressive timing and finishing ability off the pick-and-roll, and he should continue to develop this skill while playing with Jahii Carson. His pick-and-roll skills, combined with his defense, could be his potential calling card.

SHOT BLOCKING

He stands his ground in the paint, slides his feet well and has great timing on blocks. Great footwork, patience, and defensive instincts make Bachynski one of the best shot blockers in the nation.

OVERALL

Bachynski has something you can’t tech (size), and two NBA skills (finishing on the pick-and-roll and shot blocking) that teams often covet. With Arizona State looking like a legitimate NCAA Tournament team, Bachynski will have a chance to assert himself both in-conference and nationally this season. I’m not sure if he’s already past his prime, but if Bachynski can get physically stronger and improve his right hand, a team could take a flyer on him in the second round.

8. Jordan Loveridge | Utah | Sophomore, 19 years old
SF/PF, 6-6, 220

Last season (31.7 MPG): 12.1 PPG, 7 RPG, 2 APG, 17.6 PER

Breakdown:

After a “breakout” freshman season in which he averaged 12.1 points and 7 rebounds per game, swingman Jordan Loveridge will now be the focal point of Utah’s offense, and inevitably, of all opponent scouting reports. A top-100 recruit coming out of high school, Loveridge has a silky-smooth jumpshot with a quick first step and developing mid-range game. He possesses a high basketball IQ, and if he can develop an off the dribble game, has a chance to be an NBA player.

After weighing 230 pounds last year, Loveridge has reportedly shed 15 pounds this offseason which should pay dividends on the court. He always had a deceptive first step, but he may now be able to gather a burst of explosion that was absent last season. All in all, with a strong jumpshot and impressive rebounding numbers, Loveridge has a chance to be one of the most productive players in the Pac-12 this season.

Shot distribution: 51.3% Jump Shots | 33.6% Around the Basket | 11.4% Post-Ups | 3.7% Runner

SHOOTING

Seventy-five percent of Loveridge’s jumpshots were of the mid-range and three-point variety, where he averaged a solid 1.0 PPP. Loveridge has beautiful form on his shot; he sets his feet, releases the ball at its highest point and follows through. He sometimes brings the ball behind his head, but overall he is a consistent catch-and-shoot player.

NOT GREAT IN ISOLATION, THOUGH

When defenders close out on him, though, Loveridge struggles to attack off the dribble. He produced a below-average .559 PPP (ranking in the bottom 23% of all players) in isolation situations, in addition to a 23.5% turnover rate.

Perhaps his isolation struggles were directly correlated to his heavy frame last year, and now that he’s trimmed down he’ll be able to make more of an impact. One way or another, if he wants to be an NBA player, Loveridge will need to expand his offensive arsenal to be more than just a catch-and-shoot threat.

OVERALL

With a trimmed down frame, Loveridge is in a great position to build on his impressive freshman campaign. He should once again lead the Utes in scoring, and continue to expand his offensive arsenal. If he makes progress this season, he should draw legitimate attention from NBA scouts.

10. Devon Collier | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
F, 6-8, 215

Last season (25.5 MPG): 12.6 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 23.4 PER

Devon Collier is a smooth athlete with soft touch deep in the paint. Collier has an uncanny nose for the ball, ranking in the top-10 in every offensive rebound category in the Pac-12. He is also extremely efficient, both in the half court and transition.

His 23.4 Player Efficiency Rating ranked fourth in the Pac-12; his 51.5% field goal percentage, which was second-best in the Pac-12, was actually a step back from his 61.5% field goal percentage as a sophomore. For his career, Collier is shooting 58% from the field. He also gets to the free throw line often, shooting the fifth most FTs in the conference.

All that being said, there’s one fundamental problem in Collier’s make-up that overshadows—and even undermines—all of his effectiveness: Collier is a power forward living in a small forward’s body.

At 6-8 and 215 pounds, Collier hasn’t attempted a 3-pointer in all three years of his college career. Furthermore, 85% of his shot attempts last season were of the “Post-Up” or “around the basket” variety. On the other hand, jump shooting only made up 9.4% of his shot attempts, and he shot a very poor .348 PPP on such attempts (ranking in the bottom 3% nationally).

Let’s take a look at the film:

SHOOTING (17-feet and in):

In many of the clips above, Collier literally passes up wide open 18-footers for contested 15-footers. His form is totally crooked. He brings his feet together when he shoots, all while fading diagonally, sometimes backwards and other times forwards. His shooting elbow—which should ideally be at a 90-degree angle—is completely crooked as well. I’m not saying his form is beyond repair, but in his first three seasons, Collier hasn’t given us much of a reason to believe he’ll expand his game. He should be spending countless hours in the gym working on reinventing his shot.

——

TRANSITION

Collier’s 1.148 PPP in transition ranked in the 67th percentile of all players. He runs the floor well — he’s quick and bouncy, and can finish through contact.

——

OVERALL

Collier is efficient, and has a propensity to accumulate rebounds and get to the foul line. But as a 22 year-old senior, as a 6-8 power forward, he must develop even a semblance of a jumpshot to be considered at the NBA level.

Link to aggregate rankings

1. Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | Junior, 20 years old
G, 6-5, 200

Last season (32.5 MPG): Last season: 15.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 7.3 FTA, 22.8 PER

Outlook: Spencer Dinwiddie quietly had one of the most productive seasons of any point guard in college basketball last year, leading to both team and individual success. A fringe top-100 prospect coming out of high school, Dinwiddie is—in my opinion—now the best point guard in the Pac-12, and has a chance to be a lottery pick in a guard-heavy Draft next June. Standing at 6-5, Dinwiddie has good size, attacks the rim with relative regularity, has offensive versatility and can lock-up his man when focused.

The question marks surrounding his game stem from a lack of assertiveness, skinny frame and below-the-rim athleticism. However, all things considered, Dinwiddie has the talent to significantly impact every college game he plays in.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 66.4% Jump Shots | 23.6% Around the Basket | 9.6% Runner

Half-Court, Pick-and-Roll

Dinwiddie posted an excellent 1.006 points per possession in half court, ranking in the 89th percentile nationally. He has a quick first step to penetrate the defense, and his size makes him hard to stop when he’s in the second level of the defense. This is a big reason why he averaged 7.3 free-throw attempts last season led the Pac-12 and ranked 16th nationally.

Dinwiddie has a polished offensive arsenal—he was an efficient jump shooter last season (.961 PPP, 66th percentile, 48 percent adjusted field goal percentage), utilized a polish floater (.864 PPP, 73rd percentile) and as mentioned racked up a ton of foul shots. He is an advanced ball hander, which is the foundation of his isolation prowess, and is skilled to finish with either hand. His size also gives him an advantage, as he can get clear shooting looks and also back down/overpower smaller guards.

Transition

Dinwiddie was an average transition player last season; he has the requisite size and skill to score/distribute, but sometimes lacks the body control to finish through contact. He hardly goes up for a dunk, and often lacks “NBA burst.”

As the second video shows, Dinwiddie has some trouble finishing through contact. This is partly due to a lack of athleticism, but also due to a lack of effort and strength. He seems to coast in transition, and it’s frustrating to watch. Finishing with more assertiveness should be at the top of his “to do” list.

Drawing Fouls

When Dinwiddie is keyed in, he attacks the basket relentlessly and is a foul-drawing machine. As mentioned, his 7.3 free-throw attempts last season were most in the Pac-12 and 16th nationally. He drew fouls in both transition (24.1% free throw percentage) and in isolation (28.4%), taking advantage of the bevy of smaller guards in the Pac-12 (Dominic Artis, Jahii Carson, Justin Cobbs, Royce Woolridge, etc).

Overall

In my estimation, Dinwiddie was more of a lead guard than a point guard last season. If he can increase his assist numbers and continue to penetrate the lane, he will solidify himself in the point guard crop. He should also make strides in his isolation game, expanding his offensive arsenal and overall playmaking. Without Andre Roberson to collect rebounds and cause havoc on defense this season, Dinwiddie is now the main cog in Colorado’s attack, and will be held to such a standard. With a strong crop of guards in the Pac-12 (and nationally), I expect Dinwiddie to continue his development as a do-everything point guard and solidify his status as a first-round pick.

Link to aggregate rankings

3. Jordan Adams | UCLA | Sophomore, 19 years old
G, 6-5, 220

Last season (31.4 MPG): 15.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.2 SPG, 23.7 PER

Outlook: When UCLA brought in a “hyped” 2012 freshmen class—headlined by the triumvirate of Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker—Jordan Adams slipped under the radar. A few months later, however, Adams was widely considered the most important Bruin, as UCLA’s season was finished when Adams broke his foot in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Only 19 years of age, Adams is a smooth shooter with a ton of upside. He has a beautiful shooting stroke from all three levels on the court, is a deft slasher to the hoop, and has good length at 6-5. Adams is nimble on his feet, can settle into defensive pockets and never hesitates on his shot, both in transition and half court. If you let Adams receive the ball in his spots, he’s automatic.

There are two potential question marks when I observe Adams: 1) Is he athletic enough to compete on the NBA level? He’s not athletically challenged, per se, but he may not have the speed or burst to consistently defend in the NBA. He’s more “fluid and smooth” than explosive. Also, can he contribute beyond solely scoring? He led UCLA with a 23.7 Player Efficiency Rating, but posted pedestrian rebounding and assist numbers.

Nevertheless, Adams has good size at 6-5, and is undoubtedly one of the most skilled shooters in the country.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 70.1% Jump Shots | 21.1% Around the Basket | 7.4% Runner | 1.4% Post Up

TRANSITION

21.8 percent of Adams’ baskets came in transition last season, where he posted an excellent 1.294 points per possession, ranking in the 85th percentile nationally. On film, it’s evident Adams has trouble finishing at- or above-the rim, but he can leak out in transition and convert a jump shot from virtually any spot. In fact, his 1.522 PPP shooting from the left wing in transition, and his 1.386 PPP from the right wing were both in the top 20 percent nationally.

If Adams he gets ahead of the defense, he is an excellent shooter in transition.

MID-RANGE

Adams, for lack of a better term, has a “wet” jump shot. He has the length to get it off whenever he desires, and can shoot off balance. As the film shows, Adams often starts on the interior, roaming the baseline until a crease opens. Once it opens, he quickly settles in, receives a pass and goes up for the shot. For a freshman to have that kind of awareness and mid-range ability is uncanny. He rivals Jahii Carson for the best mid-range in the Pac-12.

CUTTING

Adams posted a remarkable 1.571 points per possession on “cuts”, ranking in the top 3 percent nationally. Ben Howland often had Adams run the baseline against a zone, resulting in easy layups and floaters. Adams can also run around screens—a la Richard Hamilton, or more recently, Tony Snell/Ben MacLemore—to create misdirection and an inch of separation.

ISOLATION

Adams averaged 1 point per possession in isolation situations last season, ranking in the top 10 percentile nationally. Adams uses a strong crossover to get by his man one-on-one, and dips his shoulder while driving to embrace contact. He can also pull-up on a dime, and shoot coming off screens. His vast isolation skill set is displayed below.

DEFENSE

While Adams has NBA size, he’s not particularly quick or explosive, which could make it difficult for him to guard NBA shooting guards. Quicker guards can get around him, and bigger guards with an ounce of explosion will usually make things difficult.

That being said, he has quick hands to disrupt passing lanes and accumulate deflections/steals. He led the Pac-12 with 2.2 steals per game, and his 4.2 steal percentage was 39th in the country, per KenPom.com.

Much of Adams’ freshman season was overshadowed by “what could’ve been”, as he was on the cusp of breaking through in the NCAA Tournament prior to getting injured. I think we should wait to see how Adams’ defense has developed—or possibly even regressed—since last season before making any definitive statements.

OVERALL

Adams quickly established himself as one of the most dangerous scorers in college basketball last season, and firmly put himself on the NBA radar. He was also on pace to have a productive NCAA Tournament before getting injured. These were his totals in the last five games before he went down:

Arizona – 6 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 steals

@ Washington State – 18 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 4 steals

@ Washington – 17 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 steals

Arizona State – 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals

Arizona – 24 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals

With a quick start already this season (16 points last night against a tough Drexel team), Adams should return at full form. He could lead the Pac-12 in scoring, and if he can consistently defend at a high level, he should solidify himself as a first-round talent.

Link to aggregate rankings

4. Kyle Anderson | UCLA | Sophomore, 20 years old
PG/SF, 6-8, 235

Last season (29.9 MPG): 9.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 20.2 PER

Outlook: On paper, Anderson is one of the most unique players in the country — he’s 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan, with the size of a wing and the skills of a point guard. But for all of his physical gifts and versatility, Anderson is a below-the-rim, flat-footed, Slow Motion (his nickname in high school was literally “Slow Mo”) player who’s lack of athleticism tends to surface at some point every game. Sometimes Anderson looks like he is attacking the defense and proceeding at his own speed, but other times he looks a step behind.

So where does Anderson lie in the context of the NBA Draft? Even after a full year of college basketball, it’s still difficult for me to definitively appraise Anderson’s NBA potential. I say this because I saw him dominate his high school class, but I’m not blind to the athletic shortcomings which hinder him.

Last season, Anderson was an “average” player in both half court and transition. His .938 points per possession in transition situations ranked in the 34th percentile nationally, while his .794 points per possession in the half court ranked in the 49th percentile. Granted, though, UCLA’s crowded backcourt of Larry Drew, Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams made it tough for Anderson to establish a rhythm and find his role in the offense (he averaged the fourth most shot attempts on the team, and played the fourth most minutes).

Let’s take a look at Anderson’s game.

Jump Shot

Anderson posted a below average .667 points per possession in spot up situations, ranking in the bottom 20 percentile nationally. But, for the sake of this evaluation, just disregard those numbers — after all, only 13.3% of his shots were spot-ups.

Simply by watching the video, we can dissect Anderson’s jump shot. He a slow release and poor lift on his shot, basically counteracting his own advantage (height). Defenders can play off him but still have time to contest his shot. Also, on a few of the clips, Anderson unnecessarily fades away on his release.

Runner

Anderson uses his length to get into the paint, and he also sets up in the high post (especially against a zone), so last season we saw him attempt quite a few runners. He was average at best on runners, shooting 33.3% from the field on such attempts, and I think his struggles are directly attributable to 1) his hesitancy to make decisions, and 2) his lack of “burst” in the paint.

In the first clip, Anderson uses a quick crossover to get by his man, but then panics in the paint, throwing up a jump-pass-shot at the rim. Anderson has touch, but man, his lack of self-confidence on drives really held him back last season. Anderson missed more than a few runners at point-blank range.

EURO-STEP?

Because Anderson’s lack of athleticism makes it difficult to finish in open space, after watching some film a thought occured to me: Anderson is a silky-smooth player; why not perfect a smooth Euro-step? If he can time his Euro-step correctly, his length is too much for anyone to stay with him. Here is one example:

DEFENDING JUMP SHOTS

Although very tall and long, Anderson surrendered .983 points per possession on jump shots, ranking in the bottom 30 percentile. When you look at the film, it seems Anderson often inexplicably backs off his man, and stands there ball-watching. This results in easy jump shots for the opposition. I’m not sure if Anderson backs off because he thinks he can fully recover and get a hand up, or because he’s a bit lazy, but as the clips below show, he doesn’t have the type of close-out speed to nonchalantly back off his man.

PICK-AND-ROLL DEFENSE

Anderson length enables him to deflect passes and alter shots—he posted 2.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes, pace adjusted—consistently making his presence felt on the defensive end. However, his lack of athleticism leaves him susceptible to quicker guards, and he often gets beat one-on-one.

Anderson can go under screens and still recover to contest a jump shot, or can go over screens. He can also switch onto a big man, or even blitz-trap a big man in the post, using his length to force a steal (we see this at the :35 second mark).

OVERALL

Perhaps no returning player will have more to prove than Kyle Anderson this season. With a new head coach, new freedom (Larry Drew and Shabazz Muhammad—the two most-featured UCLA backcourt players last season—are gone), and with an entire offseason to retool his game for the college level, Anderson will have a chance to fully prove himself this season. His unique physical makeup and solid floor vision will always intrigue NBA scouts, but questions about athleticism and inability to finish through contact persist as well. If Anderson has true NBA promise, this is the season he’ll show it.

Link to aggregate rankings

5. CJ Wilcox | Washington | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-5, 195

Last season (34.8 MPG): 16.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 20.7 PER

Outlook: Standing at 6-5, CJ Wilcox’s game revolves around a beautiful jump shot and excellent size for his position (6-5 height and 6-8 wingspan). Wilcox is a dynamic shooter who has a good feel for the game and can score in a variety of ways from the perimeter.

Wilcox is excellent shooting off screens (46 percent), and spotting up (37 percent), where nearly 50 percent of his shot attempts came from. He also shot a solid 37 percent from 3-point range. Case in point: Wilcox is a great shooter. His size and length have also made him an effective slasher, scoring on 61% of his cuts.

There are some reservations with Wilcox as an NBA prospect, mostly because he’ll be 23 next June. This causes some to believe his success is due to maturity rather than basketball acumen. In any case, his size and shooting are too much to simply dismiss.

Wilcox is a pure shooter, but he does have some flaws as a prospect. He’s not particularly adept at creating clean looks off the dribble, and is an average finisher at the rim (1 point per possession, 36th percentile). He developed a fairly reliable floater last season, but he’s still best suited to space the floor as a shooter rather than initiate offense for the team.

Wilcox’s jump shot is definitely praise-worthy, but there are question marks surrounding his lack of finishing ability and also his pedestrian 3.4 free throw attempts last season. In my opinion, much of this stems from a lack of killer instinct — Wilcox needs to adopt a more aggressive mindset on offense.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 72.8% Jump Shots | 16.3% Around the Basket | 8.4% Runner | 2.5% Post Up

STRENGTHS

SHOOTING OFF SCREENS

Wilcox’s favorite shot last season was curling around screens, which composed 24.5 percent of his attempts. He shot an exceptional 46 percent coming off screens. It is equally impressive when viewed on film.

Wilcox can seemingly run off screens for days, and he doesn’t much space to get his shot off. Similar to what New Mexico did with Tony Snell last year, running Wilcox off screens will get the entire offense—and opposing defense—moving, as it creates misdirection and also mismatches when the big men and guards switch.

Wilcox has a quick release on his jump shot, and he’ll make you pay if you give him even an inch of space. He has solid technique and a smooth follow through, and could be the best pure shooter in the Pac-12.

ISOLATION

Wilcox’s 1.04 points per possession in isolation was excellent, as he ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally. He can easily go left as well, making him a two-way threat.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Aggressiveness

Wilcox has a relatively skinny frame, and defenders can throw him off balance with a little contact. He also has trouble “dipping his shoulder,” which factors into him struggling to draw contact and get to the free throw line.

DEFENSE

He has a tendency to remain upright in his stance, basically negating any size and length advantage he has. He posted a poor .975 points per possession in defending isolation plays, ranking in the 13th percentile nationally. On film, it’s obvious his lack of focus, fundamentals, and physicality leave him vulnerable. Let’s take a look at two clips of Wilcox playing on-ball defense.

In this clip, Wilcox stays high in his stance, plays close but without any leverage, is loose on his feet, and unnecessarily goes for the steal. A prime example of how not to play on-ball defense.

Again, here Wilcox doesn’t move well laterally, gets out-muscled and gives up a basket. It’s plays like these that reel in all the “potential” Wilcox has.

Wilcox must adopt a more aggressive mindset, particularly on defense.

OVERALL

Wilcox’s draft range is still wide open. At the least, he should have the ability to be role-player/spot-up shooter/floor-spacer at the NBA level. His length and athleticism are intriguing, and make him versatile. However, several question marks remain. Does his injury history foreshadow an unfortunate reality? Can he get low on defense? Can he start attacking the rim with more purpose? Wilcox has value at the NBA level, but the extent is still unclear.

Link to aggregate rankings

7. Dominic Artis | Oregon | Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 185

Last season (23.8 MPG): 8.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 14.1 PER

Mobile: 510-415-3800

Outlook: Standing at 6-1, Dominic Artis is a gritty Oakland-bred point guard with playmaking ability in the half court, and a smooth jump shot from 3-point range. Artis is short and doesn’t have much athleticism to boast, but he’s a tough kid who projects to have an upward trajectory throughout his career at Oregon. Obviously, that “upward trajectory” has been paused at the moment, due to a recent nine-game suspension for selling shoes illicitly.

As a freshman, Artis contributed with shooting (particularly from deep), passing and—despite his size—playing impressive on-ball defense. However, his offensive game was limited; he struggled to do anything inside the 3-point line, struggled finishing in the paint and was even worse in transition. If he’s going to develop into an NBA prospect—a la, say, an Isaiah Cannon—Artis will need to iron out every kink in his offensive game while consistently defending at a strong level. The bright side: he has time to do so.

Shot Attempt Breakdown:

67% Jump Shots — 1.053 points per possession (80th percentile), 39.4 FG%

20.3% Around the Basket — 1.05 PPP (45th percentile), 52.5 FG%

12.7% Runner — .32 PPP (6th percentile), 16 FG%

STRENGTHS: Three-Point Shooting, Floor Vision

NEEDS TO IMPROVE: Transition Scoring, Developing a Runner, Transition Turnovers

STRENGTHS

Three-Point Shooting

Sixty-five percent of Artis’ jump shot attempts were from 3-point range, where he shot an excellent 1.221 points per possession (95th percentile), and shot an overall 41% from deep.

Artis can shoot off the dribble, or catch-and-shoot. He is dangerous either way, and must be accounted for at all times. What’s interesting is Artis wasn’t a strong jump shooter in high school; if that’s any indication, he’ll hopefully improve the rest of his game in due time as well.

Floor Vision

Artis sees the floor extremely well, mostly in the half court. His 26.9 assist percentage (the percentage of teammate field goals Artis assisted while he was on the floor) was most on Oregon and ranked 6^th in the Pac-12.

As the tape shows, Artis can make both the simple and difficult pass, and can thread-the-needle when neccesary. He seems to know where his teammates are, on the wing wing, in the post, or a trailer in transition.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Transition Turnovers

Twenty percent of Artis’ plays were in transition last season. Unfortunately for Oregon, he scored an abysmal 0.6 points per possession in transition, which ranked in the bottom four percentile nationally(!). Artis would often turn the ball over before he could even get a shot up, either by throwing an ill-advised pass or by getting stripped. In fact, he turned the ball over on 21 of his 70 transition opportunities last season (30%), an inefficient rate to say the least.

Transition Scoring

Because of Artis’ diminutive size and lack of athleticism, he often has to finish around bigger defenders in transition. He struggles to draw contact (only 1.9 free throw attempts per game), struggles going left, and has a tough time finishing at the rim. In order to finish with more consistency, Artis should develop some sort of “runner,” which is what we’ll examine next.

Runners

Considering he was so effective in the paint during high school, it was very surprising that Artis struggled so mightily on his floater last season. He shot runners on only 12.7 percent of his attempts, posting a 0.32 points per possession, which ranked in the bottom six percent nationally.

Because he is so small, defenders can stay with Artis and contest his drives. To combat this, he should either develop some kind of hesitation move (a step-back, maybe), or ideally, a smooth runner. If you’re a small guard in a transition-heavy setting, it’s essential to have a reliable floater/runner. This will make you unpredictable, keeping the dense on its toes and in turn creating opportunities for others.

Defensive Gambles

It would be foolish to say Artis is a “poor” defender. In fact, most people would say Artis is a great defender — he slides his feet well, and his 3.8 steals percentage last season ranked 93rd nationally, per KenPom.com. So, yes, Dominic Artis is a good defender. In fact, earlier in this evaluation I said Artis is an “impressive defender”.

But that doesn’t mean he’s perfect. Sure, Artis is a good defender, but he also cost his team numerous baskets last season due to easily-avoidable mistakes. Artis gambles a lot on defense; he sometimes gets overzealous with his quick hands, lunging toward his defender and giving him an open lane to blow by him. There are even times when he simply plays unnecessarily tight near the half-court line. If he gets beat at half court, Artis doesn’t have the length or speed to recover.

Artis should tweak his defensive habits to stay sound and only apply pressure when necessary. I think he will, but I also think it’s something worth monitoring.

OVERALL

Artis’ college career has been up and down to this point. He started off his career playing very well, as he was the starting point guard for an Oregon team that began the season 18-2. Then, in late January, he went down with a near-broken ankle, and subsequently missed the next nine games. When he returned to action, Johnathan Loyd was playing too well for Dana Altman to go back to Artis. As a result, Artis never regained his initial form.

Assuming he returns to the starting lineup after his suspension is over, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments—if any—Artis worked on over the summer. Has he developed a floater? Can he handle pressure in the open court? Has he ironed out the kinks on defense? Playing on a stacked Oregon team, Artis will certainly have opportunities. It’s on him to produce.

Link to aggregate rankings

8. Justin Cobbs | California | Senior, 22 years old
G, 6-2, 190

Last season (35.6 MPG): 15.1 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.5 RPG, 45 percent FG%, 4.6 FTA, 18.5 PER

Outlook: With Allen Crabbe gone, Justin Cobbs will be the unquestioned leader of California this season, and has a chance to have a breakout all Pac-12 year. Cobbs is California’s top returning scorer (15.1 PPG), was fourth in the Pac-12 in assists last season (4.8), and top-150 nationally in assist percentage. He is hoping to convince scouts his skills can translate to the NBA level.

Cobbs is a strong playmaker in the half court, as he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can both initiate and facilitate offense for his team. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks and get himself to the free-throw line (4.6 free throws per game last season). Cobbs is also durable, as he played the 7th most minutes in the Pac-12 last season. He reportedly had a strong showing at the Deron Williams Skills Academy in June, and hopefully got some candid feedback from NBA scouts.

Average ball handling skills, and inconsistent decision-making required at point guard is what’s holding Cobbs back right now. He often gets trapped on the pick-and-roll, leading to an excess of turnovers and chaotic possessions. Nevertheless, now fully recovered from a foot injury he sustained earlier in the summer, Cobbs will have a great opportunity to prove himself this season.

Let’s take a look at Cobbs’ offensive arsenal; namely, his half-court scoring ability, and how he can improve in transition and pick-and-roll situations.

Shot Selection: 73.9% Jump Shots | 8.7% Runners | 15.4% Around the Basket | 2% Post Ups

HALF-COURT SCORING

Cobbs has a diverse half court game, as he can shoot from outside and also penetrate the lane. He has a smooth crossover, and when in a rhythm, can dictate the tempo and course of the game.

Seventy-four percent of Cobbs’ attempts were jump shots, where he produced .95 points per possession (65th percentile nationally), and 15.4% of his attempts were “around the basket,” where he posted an excellent 1.304 points per possession (86th percentile). Jabari Bird and Tyrone Wallace provide Cobbs with some weapons despite Allen Crabbe’s departure.

TRANSITION STRUGGLES

Cobbs struggled in transition last season, where his lack of size, athleticism and finishing ability made it difficult to score.

In the first sequence above, he can’t convert over the length of a UNLV help defender; in the second sequence, Cobbs can’t convert over 6-10 forward Travis Wear; uber-long Kyle Anderson easily blocks Cobbs in the third sequence; in the fourth, Cobbs attempts to dip his shoulder into the lane, but can’t covert; and in the fifth clip, Cobbs misses a point-blank layup.

Cobbs will need to find ways to compensate for his lack of athleticism in transition—perhaps by incorporating a runner (used on only 4.5% of possessions last season), developing a hesitation move or improving his pull-up jump shot.

PICK-AND-ROLL STRUGGLES

Lacking elite speed and ball handling, Cobbs turned the ball over on 17.5% of his pick-and-rolls last season. As the film shows, defenders had success trapping him, using their length to eliminate any bail-out pass and essentially suffocate him into turning the ball over. Cobbs also had trouble keeping his dribble alive, where he would either attempt a jump-pass or a shot attempt from an unreasonable distance.

Cobbs needs to work on keeping his head up, and making decisions in a reactive—instead of thought-out—way.

OVERALL

Cobbs isn’t a traditional point guard in my estimation, but he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can penetrate the defense. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks.

Overall, if Cobbs can increase his assist numbers, develop his handle and show more I’m the best point guard on the court ability, I think NBA attention will come his way. However, even if he does prove to be a dynamic playmaker, with his athletic shortcomings, it will be tough for him to be a legitimate point guard on the NBA level.

Link to aggregate rankings

9. Royce Woolridge | Washington State (via Kansas) | Junior, 21 years old
G, 6-2, 180

Last season (32.0 MPG): 11 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 15.1 PER

Outlook: After committing to Kansas as an eighth grader, Woolridge had a brief stay in Lawrence, transferring after a freshman year in which he played a measly 2.8 minutes per game.

Woolridge is first and foremost a polished scorer. He has a quick first step and a wide frame to maneuver his way and score through traffic. He’s an excellent shooter, both in catch-and-shoot and off the dribble situations, and is also a solid pick-and-roll player. Woolridge is not very athletic, and doesn’t have exceptional speed, but he has a polished game and the ability to stick to his strengths.

All things considered, in my opinion Woolridge has the skill set to be considered at the NBA level. However, he faces one (potentially) monstrous problem: he’s a shooting guard in the body of a point guard. At only 6-2, Williams is undersized to play SG, but his skill set is of a “shooting guard.” If he can develop his facilitating skills and become more of a playmaker—and this is a big “if”, considering it requires him to reinvent his game—he’ll have a chance to prove himself at the next level. If he stays as a one-dimensional college scorer, he probably won’t have a chance.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 55.3% Jump Shots | 37.1% Around the Basket | 7.6% Runner

STRENGTHS

Isolation

Woolridge posted a .908 points per possession in isolation situations, ranking in the 79th percentile nationally. He has a developing arsenal of moves, highlighted by an ability to attack going right. He also seems to drive at the perfect angle, using his hips to shield the defender and maintain a clear look at the basket. He can also use a step-back when driving at full speed, to create separation and knock down a jump shot. Examples are below:

Spot Up / Catch-and-Shoot

Woolridge also displayed a soft shooting touch last season, posing a solid 1.074 PPP in spot-up situations (81st percentile), and an excellent 1.271 PPP in catch-and-shoot situations (90th percentile). In fact, he was even better in “guarded” catch-and-shoots than “unguarded” catch-and-shoots, showcasing the ability to create and covert difficult shots. Let’s take a look at his spot-up ability, followed by his catch-and-shoot ability.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Facilitating

Although he led Washington State with 2.7 assists per game, on film it’s evident Woolridge has a score-first mindset. Granted, there weren’t many options for him to pass to, but if he’s going to make the transition to point guard, Woolridge will have to expand his mindset to look for his teammates as much as he looks for his own shot.

Pick-and-Roll

Woolridge’s struggles playing the point are perhaps most applicable in the pick-and-roll. Again, it’s not like his teammates were the most active off the ball, but still, as the clip below demonstrates, Woolridge was easily flustered on the P-n-R. He would often pick up his dribble and subsequently throw up an ill-advised jump shot, or defenders would expose his ball handling by trapping him and forcing a turnover (0:25 mark).

OVERALL

Woolridge was the Cougars’ second-leading scorer and assist leader in his first season with the team. Now as a junior, he will be handed the keys to the offense and given the freedom to make plays. If he can expand his game to develop his point guard skills (ball handling, patience, floor vision), he’ll take steps in the right direction.

Link to aggregate rankings

10. Roberto Nelson | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-4, 195

Last season (31.3 MPG): Last season: 17.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, 22.4 PER

Mobile: 805-698-7838

Outlook: Standing at 6-4, Roberto Nelson is a sharpshooting guard with terrific range on his jump shot and the ability to score in bunches. Nelson is a terrific spot-up shooter, and is excellent coming off screens. He quickly sets his feet and can rise for a shot.

Problem is—and I don’t mean to sound insubstantial or dismissive—Nelson is athletically challenged, and the scope of his NBA potential doesn’t extend past being a good shooter. He doesn’t have a noteworthy dribble-drive game, is a poor on-ball defender, is an average passer/rebounder, and has difficulty handling the ball against pressure. Perhaps Nelson could carve out a niche as a spot-up sharpshooter in the NBA, but as of now it seems unlikely.

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 56.5% Jump Shots | 34.6% Around Basket | 5.2% Post Ups | 3.7%

STRENGTHS

Spot Up

Nelson shot an excellent 1.088 points per possession on spot-up situations, ranking in the 83rd percentile nationally. Spot-up shooting is Nelson’s biggest strength.

Nelson can find open spots within the defense, and is always ready to release. He has solid shooting form, and can heat up to either extend or shrink a lead in a matter of minutes. There’s not much to criticize about Nelson’s shooting.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Transition

Nelson posted a below average .938 points per possession “around the basket”, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. Faster and more athletic defenders can easily disrupt Nelson’s attempts at the rim. Again, Nelson can shoot open 3′s, but he struggles to create off the dribble/facilitate for teammates.

Pick-and-Roll

Nelson’s lack of quickness negatively affects his pick-and-roll ability. He recorded an extraordinarily high 20.4 turnover rate on pick-and-rolls last season, and shot 32 percent on such plays. Defenders can easily blitz-trap Nelson, making him pick up his dribble almost automatically.

Pick-and-Roll Defense

I wouldn’t be so hard on Nelson if, for all of his offensive shortcomings, he were at least a decent defender. But he struggled on defense as well last season. In defending the pick-and-roll, Nelson doesn’t get down in a proper defensive stance, has trouble moving his feet laterally, hardly applies resistance, and—due to a combination of technique and a skinny frame—can get out-muscled. Nelson’s lack of speed automatically calls for the big man to “switch,” which will often causes a mismatch. Not a good look here.

OVERALL

Nelson is a very tough kid (his mother passed away when he was younger, and his father has been in prison for most of Roberto’s college career, yet he’s managed to keep his focus and play well), but his upside doesn’t extend past being a good spot-up shooter. In my opinion, it will be difficult for him to carve out a nice in the NBA.

Dwight Powell | Stanford | Senior, 22 years old
PF, 6-10, 235

Last season: 14.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 23.3 PER

Breakdown: With great size, terrific shooting range and a quick first step, Dwight Powell is one of the most skilled big men in the country. A top-50 recruit out of high school in 2010, Powell finally “turned the corner” last season, as he stepped up in the role of Stanford’s best player. His 26.5 usage percentage ranked 7th in the Pac-12, and he was one of only two “big men” among the top 10.

Powell was very efficient in the half court, where 96.4% of his offense occurred. He shot 47% from the field, and his .933 points per possession (PPP) in the half court ranked in the top 22% of all college players. Powell isn’t the most athletic player, but he compensates with a 7-foot wingspan and an inside-outside touch. He can face up, catch-and-shoot, and attack the basket off the dribble.

Powell can score rather convincingly on the college level. In addition to scoring, he can also rebound—his 24% defensive rebounding percentage ranked 48th nationally, per Kenpom.com.

Shot distribution: 29.9% Jump Shots | 5% Runner | 40.8% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 24.3% Post-Ups

AROUND THE BASKET SCORING

As mentioned before, Powell can score from all three levels, especially in the half court. Let’s take a look at his post scoring, where he attempted 65% of his shots.

Powell shot a productive .833 PPP in post-ups, ranking among the top 60% nationally, and his 1.281 PPP in “around the basket” situations ranked in the top 18% nationally. Powell doesn’t receive “traditional post-ups” deep on the block, but he can set up in the high post and knows how to leverage for position down low.

While he is effective in the paint, Powell’s best skill is his ability to spot up and shoot from virtually anywhere. His quick release and smooth stroke keeps defenders on their toes, disrupting their timing and giving Powell a split-second edge.

SHOOTING

Powell’s .986 PPP in spot-up situations was a solid mark. Furthermore, he can operate on both sides of the floor (48.1% of offense from the right side of the court; 51.9% from the left side).

However, if you watch closely, virtually every jumpshot attempt was either from a no-dribble or one-dribble stance. While it is efficient to minimize dribbles, Powell’s (lack of) off-the-dribble jump shooting is a cause for concern. His .364 PPP shooting off the dribble ranked in the bottom 6% nationally.

Many praise Powell for his rip-through ability and quick release, but in my opinion if Powell doesn’t develop his off the dribble game, he’ll run into trouble once he starts facing NBA close-out speed and athleticism. Powell’s entire effectiveness is predicated on keeping the defense on its toes; the next step is developing his off the dribble jump shooting.

PASSING

Powell is also a very skilled post passer. His 1.44 PPP on passing out of the post when the defense commits ranked in the top 4% of all college players. As the film shows, Powell has a keen sense of where his double-teams are coming from, and where his open teammates are located. He seems to read cuts before they happen, and is a deft jump-passer. He’s not hesitant to make the correct “basketball play” (i.e. kicking it out to his shooters on the perimeter if their defender slides over to help), and he can pass with either hand.

It’s unclear how much post potential Powell has in the NBA, but his court vision and outside shooting should carry over to the next level.

OVERALL

Powell will be 23 next July, so if he’s going to bring it all together, the time is now. His jump shooting and soft touch have him on the NBA radar. If he continues to rebound and can develop his handle a little further, he has a chance to be a first round pick.

Brandon Ashley | Arizona | Sophomore, 19 years old
F, 6-8, 235

Last season (20.5 MPG): 7.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 17.5 PER, 53% field goals

A McDonald’s All-American and top-20 recruit out of high school, to me Brandon Ashley is one of the most intriguing players in the country. He’s a gifted athlete with a silky-smooth flow and physical attributes (6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan). Ashley is a deft slasher with exceptional timing around the basket.

I think it boils down to this: Ashley has first-round-pick talent, but in order to maximize said talent, he will have to improve 1) his ball handling and 2) his assertiveness. Improving his “weaknesses” won’t be easy, but the good news is that unlike the majority of NBA draft prospects, Ashley’s potential and areas of growth are completely transparent, for better or worse.

In other words, the versatility is there, the rebounding (Ashley’s 21.4 defensive rebound percentage was 9^th in Pac-12, and 129^th nationally) is there, the defense is there. But attacking off the dribble, and more importantly the necessary motor, are not yet there.

Shot distribution: 27.9% Jump Shots | 51.9% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 13% Post-Ups | 7.1% Runner

Ashley is in the Austin Daye/Tayshaun Prince mold — he can guard both forward positions on defense, and on offense can run the baseline, roam the perimeter and slash through the lane.

51.9% of his shots came around the basket last season, with 21.5% of those shot attempts coming from cuts to the hoop. Ashley’s length, bounce and timing make him a promising slasher.

CUTTING

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OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

15.4% of Ashley’s shot attempts came off offensive rebounds (put backs), where he posted a solid 1.225 PPP (77th percentile).

As mentioned before, when Ashley is focused, his instincts and timing separate him from the pack.

———

Ashley will have to elevate his game this season, and a major part of that “elevation” will hinge on his ability to put the ball on the floor and attack. This season, his focus needs to be on attacking the hoop with a refined intensity.

WEAK DRIVES

In the snippet of film above, Ashley is either “soft” attacking the rim, or his poor ball skills throw him into an off-balance shot. Ashley needs to put on weight, and develop (even if it’s just a little bit) his ball skills. If he can attack the rim while maintaining balance and position, his impact will be more than just a rebounder/slasher/active defender.

In other words, can Brandon Ashley—the epitome of versatility—impose his will? Does he have it in him? We certainly thought so coming out of high school, but now in year two, the pressure is starting to surface.