1. Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | Junior, 20 years old
G, 6-5, 200
Last season (32.5 MPG): Last season: 15.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 7.3 FTA, 22.8 PER
Outlook: Spencer Dinwiddie quietly had one of the most productive seasons of any point guard in college basketball last year, leading to both team and individual success. A fringe top-100 prospect coming out of high school, Dinwiddie is—in my opinion—now the best point guard in the Pac-12, and has a chance to be a lottery pick in a guard-heavy Draft next June. Standing at 6-5, Dinwiddie has good size, attacks the rim with relative regularity, has offensive versatility and can lock-up his man when focused.
The question marks surrounding his game stem from a lack of assertiveness, skinny frame and below-the-rim athleticism. However, all things considered, Dinwiddie has the talent to significantly impact every college game he plays in.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 66.4% Jump Shots | 23.6% Around the Basket | 9.6% Runner
Half-Court, Pick-and-Roll
Dinwiddie posted an excellent 1.006 points per possession in half court, ranking in the 89th percentile nationally. He has a quick first step to penetrate the defense, and his size makes him hard to stop when he’s in the second level of the defense. This is a big reason why he averaged 7.3 free-throw attempts last season led the Pac-12 and ranked 16th nationally.
Dinwiddie has a polished offensive arsenal—he was an efficient jump shooter last season (.961 PPP, 66th percentile, 48 percent adjusted field goal percentage), utilized a polish floater (.864 PPP, 73rd percentile) and as mentioned racked up a ton of foul shots. He is an advanced ball hander, which is the foundation of his isolation prowess, and is skilled to finish with either hand. His size also gives him an advantage, as he can get clear shooting looks and also back down/overpower smaller guards.
Transition
Dinwiddie was an average transition player last season; he has the requisite size and skill to score/distribute, but sometimes lacks the body control to finish through contact. He hardly goes up for a dunk, and often lacks “NBA burst.”
As the second video shows, Dinwiddie has some trouble finishing through contact. This is partly due to a lack of athleticism, but also due to a lack of effort and strength. He seems to coast in transition, and it’s frustrating to watch. Finishing with more assertiveness should be at the top of his “to do” list.
Drawing Fouls
When Dinwiddie is keyed in, he attacks the basket relentlessly and is a foul-drawing machine. As mentioned, his 7.3 free-throw attempts last season were most in the Pac-12 and 16th nationally. He drew fouls in both transition (24.1% free throw percentage) and in isolation (28.4%), taking advantage of the bevy of smaller guards in the Pac-12 (Dominic Artis, Jahii Carson, Justin Cobbs, Royce Woolridge, etc).
Overall
In my estimation, Dinwiddie was more of a lead guard than a point guard last season. If he can increase his assist numbers and continue to penetrate the lane, he will solidify himself in the point guard crop. He should also make strides in his isolation game, expanding his offensive arsenal and overall playmaking. Without Andre Roberson to collect rebounds and cause havoc on defense this season, Dinwiddie is now the main cog in Colorado’s attack, and will be held to such a standard. With a strong crop of guards in the Pac-12 (and nationally), I expect Dinwiddie to continue his development as a do-everything point guard and solidify his status as a first-round pick.