5. CJ Wilcox | Washington | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-5, 195
Last season (34.8 MPG): 16.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 20.7 PER
Outlook: Standing at 6-5, CJ Wilcox’s game revolves around a beautiful jump shot and excellent size for his position (6-5 height and 6-8 wingspan). Wilcox is a dynamic shooter who has a good feel for the game and can score in a variety of ways from the perimeter.
Wilcox is excellent shooting off screens (46 percent), and spotting up (37 percent), where nearly 50 percent of his shot attempts came from. He also shot a solid 37 percent from 3-point range. Case in point: Wilcox is a great shooter. His size and length have also made him an effective slasher, scoring on 61% of his cuts.
There are some reservations with Wilcox as an NBA prospect, mostly because he’ll be 23 next June. This causes some to believe his success is due to maturity rather than basketball acumen. In any case, his size and shooting are too much to simply dismiss.
Wilcox is a pure shooter, but he does have some flaws as a prospect. He’s not particularly adept at creating clean looks off the dribble, and is an average finisher at the rim (1 point per possession, 36th percentile). He developed a fairly reliable floater last season, but he’s still best suited to space the floor as a shooter rather than initiate offense for the team.
Wilcox’s jump shot is definitely praise-worthy, but there are question marks surrounding his lack of finishing ability and also his pedestrian 3.4 free throw attempts last season. In my opinion, much of this stems from a lack of killer instinct — Wilcox needs to adopt a more aggressive mindset on offense.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 72.8% Jump Shots | 16.3% Around the Basket | 8.4% Runner | 2.5% Post Up
STRENGTHS
SHOOTING OFF SCREENS
Wilcox’s favorite shot last season was curling around screens, which composed 24.5 percent of his attempts. He shot an exceptional 46 percent coming off screens. It is equally impressive when viewed on film.
Wilcox can seemingly run off screens for days, and he doesn’t much space to get his shot off. Similar to what New Mexico did with Tony Snell last year, running Wilcox off screens will get the entire offense—and opposing defense—moving, as it creates misdirection and also mismatches when the big men and guards switch.
Wilcox has a quick release on his jump shot, and he’ll make you pay if you give him even an inch of space. He has solid technique and a smooth follow through, and could be the best pure shooter in the Pac-12.
ISOLATION
Wilcox’s 1.04 points per possession in isolation was excellent, as he ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally. He can easily go left as well, making him a two-way threat.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Aggressiveness
Wilcox has a relatively skinny frame, and defenders can throw him off balance with a little contact. He also has trouble “dipping his shoulder,” which factors into him struggling to draw contact and get to the free throw line.
DEFENSE
He has a tendency to remain upright in his stance, basically negating any size and length advantage he has. He posted a poor .975 points per possession in defending isolation plays, ranking in the 13th percentile nationally. On film, it’s obvious his lack of focus, fundamentals, and physicality leave him vulnerable. Let’s take a look at two clips of Wilcox playing on-ball defense.
In this clip, Wilcox stays high in his stance, plays close but without any leverage, is loose on his feet, and unnecessarily goes for the steal. A prime example of how not to play on-ball defense.
Again, here Wilcox doesn’t move well laterally, gets out-muscled and gives up a basket. It’s plays like these that reel in all the “potential” Wilcox has.
Wilcox must adopt a more aggressive mindset, particularly on defense.
OVERALL
Wilcox’s draft range is still wide open. At the least, he should have the ability to be role-player/spot-up shooter/floor-spacer at the NBA level. His length and athleticism are intriguing, and make him versatile. However, several question marks remain. Does his injury history foreshadow an unfortunate reality? Can he get low on defense? Can he start attacking the rim with more purpose? Wilcox has value at the NBA level, but the extent is still unclear.