Breaking down the Top 10 guards in the Pac-12 Conference (freshmen not included).
1. Spencer Dinwiddie | Colorado | Junior, 20 years old
G, 6-5, 200
Last season (32.5 MPG): Last season: 15.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 7.3 FTA, 22.8 PER
Outlook: Spencer Dinwiddie quietly had one of the most productive seasons of any point guard in college basketball last year, leading to both team and individual success. A fringe top-100 prospect coming out of high school, Dinwiddie is—in my opinion—now the best point guard in the Pac-12, and has a chance to be a lottery pick in a guard-heavy Draft next June. Standing at 6-5, Dinwiddie has good size, attacks the rim with relative regularity, has offensive versatility and can lock-up his man when focused.
The question marks surrounding his game stem from a lack of assertiveness, skinny frame and below-the-rim athleticism. However, all things considered, Dinwiddie has the talent to significantly impact every college game he plays in.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 66.4% Jump Shots | 23.6% Around the Basket | 9.6% Runner
Half-Court, Pick-and-Roll
Dinwiddie posted an excellent 1.006 points per possession in half court, ranking in the 89th percentile nationally. He has a quick first step to penetrate the defense, and his size makes him hard to stop when he’s in the second level of the defense. This is a big reason why he averaged 7.3 free-throw attempts last season led the Pac-12 and ranked 16th nationally.
Dinwiddie has a polished offensive arsenal—he was an efficient jump shooter last season (.961 PPP, 66th percentile, 48 percent adjusted field goal percentage), utilized a polish floater (.864 PPP, 73rd percentile) and as mentioned racked up a ton of foul shots. He is an advanced ball hander, which is the foundation of his isolation prowess, and is skilled to finish with either hand. His size also gives him an advantage, as he can get clear shooting looks and also back down/overpower smaller guards.
Transition
Dinwiddie was an average transition player last season; he has the requisite size and skill to score/distribute, but sometimes lacks the body control to finish through contact. He hardly goes up for a dunk, and often lacks “NBA burst.”
As the second video shows, Dinwiddie has his fair share of trouble finishing through contact. This is partly due to a lack of athleticism, but also due to a lack of effort and strength. He seems to coast in transition, and it’s frustrating to watch. Finishing with more assertiveness should be at the top of his “to do” list.
Drawing Fouls
When Dinwiddie is keyed in, he attacks the basket relentlessly and is a foul-drawing machine. As mentioned, his 7.3 free-throw attempts last season were most in the Pac-12 and 16th nationally. He drew fouls in both transition (24.1% free throw percentage) and in isolation (28.4%), taking advantage of the bevy of smaller guards in the Pac-12 (Dominic Artis, Jahii Carson, Justin Cobbs, Royce Woolridge, etc).
Overall
In my estimation, Dinwiddie was more of a lead guard than a point guard last season. If he can increase his assist numbers and continue to penetrate the lane, he will solidify himself in the point guard crop. He should also make strides in his isolation game, expanding his offensive arsenal and overall playmaking. Without Andre Roberson to collect rebounds and cause havoc on defense this season, Dinwiddie is now the main cog in Colorado’s attack, and will be held to such a standard. With a strong crop of guards in the Pac-12 (and nationally), I expect Dinwiddie to continue his development as a do-everything point guard and solidify his status as a first-round pick.
2. Jahii Carson | Arizona State | Sophomore, 21 years old
PG, 5-11, 180
Last season (37.2 MPG): 18.5 PPG, 5 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 47% FG, 19.9 PER
Outlook: After redshirting his freshman year at ASU because of academic eligibility issues, Jahii Carson had a special debut season for the Sun Devils. Carson quickly solidified himself as one of the best point guards in the country.
Carson is a playmaker that thrives with the ball in his hands. He’s never shy to take a tough shot, and his impact is felt across the board, as he led ASU in points, assists, and minutes last season.
Although only 5-11, Carson has an advanced handle (filthy two-way crossover, and one of those players who can integrate “streetball” moves into a professional setting), a lethal mid-range jump shot, and an excellent first step to get by any player in college basketball. In fact, his 1.13 points per possession in isolation situations ranked better than 96 percent of all college players. And once Carson gets into the lane he’s a near-automatic finisher—his 1.098 points per possession driving right and 1.158 PPP driving left both ranked in the top 10 percent nationally.
So yes, Jahii Carson is a very skilled, very tough, very fun-to-watch basketball player. But that doesn’t mean he’s without room for improvement, and more frankly, without flaws.
Let’s break it down.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: Jump Shots 43.7% | Around the Basket 38.4% | Runner 17.9%
STRENGTHS
Mid-Range Jump Shot
Like any diminutive high-usage star, Carson uses a beautiful mid-range, stop-and-pop jump shot to freeze the opposition and score before he even reaches the second level of the defense. Mid-range jumpers composed 17.3% of his jump shots, and Carson shot an excellent .933 points per possession on such shots, per Synergy Sports.
Whether it’s coming off the pick-and-roll or receiving a catch-and-shoot, Carson quickly rises, floats the ball through the air and knocks down the jump shot. He’s especially dangerous off the pick-and-roll, where he can halt his momentum, freeze the defense and get a shot off.
One of the main reasons why second-level defenders back off Carson and surrender the mid-range is because Carson can finish at the basket. In other words, defenders are left with no choice but to concede a jump shot, which by default is more difficult than a half-open layup.
Another reason Carson is so good at getting open is because he is sometimes literally a step ahead of the defense. He advances the ball so rapidly that when he’s ready to make his move, defenders are still reacting to what happened a second prior. Carson has no hesitation on his decisions, and is extraordinarily nimble in his movements.
Runners
17.9 percent of Carson’s jump shots were in the form of runners, and his .887 points per possession on such shots ranked in the 76th percentile nationally. He also recorded a 53.5 field goal percentage around the basket. Carson has a nice touch on his runners—which speaks to his overall smoothness operating with the ball in his hands—and has underrated body control to finish at weird angles.
Pick-and-Roll
Carson utilized the pick-and-roll on 39.5% of his possessions last season, by far his most used play in the half court. He’ll often start just above half-court and wait for an oncoming pick on the right side. If the defense doesn’t switch, Carson uses his ball-skills/quick first step to get around the pick (and past his original defender) and attack the hoop. If the defense does switch, Carson is still incredibly effective — defenders switched on 14.8 percent of his pick-and-rolls last season, and his 1.308 points per possession in such situations was in the top seven percent nationally.
ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT
Driving Left
Carson is a special player for all the aforementioned reasons—rare speed and craftiness, mid-range shooting and soft touch—there is one facet of his game that continues to linger with me: Carson has serious trouble going left.
Last season, Carson went right on 76.2% of his drives, while going left on only 23.8% of his possessions. Sure, he shot an “excellent” 1.158 points per possession on his drives going left, but when you watch the film (either the clip of his pick-and-rolls above, or the clip below), his discomfort going left is obvious. He often ignores screens on the left side (1:35 in the below clip), or if he does use the screen, attempts to finish with his right hand on the left side (0:10, 0:40).
Shooting Form
While Carson’s game is filled with flair, his shooting form (especially from 3-point range) is fundamentally poor. Carson often fades-away, even if the defense is not playing him tight, which causes him to shoot off-balance. He’s also made it a habit to kick-out his right leg as he releases the ball, again unnecessarily making the shot more difficult. Carson’s release and footwork are crooked — you’re not supposed to land on one leg when you shoot.
Carson posted a below-average .939 points per possession on 3-pointers (42nd percentile), and a decent .931 points per possession on all jump shots (61st percentile), in large part due to his shooting form. Hopefully he spent the off-season refining his jump shot.
OVERALL
There are some more things to nit-pick—like how Carson keeps his head down when he drives—but all things considered, Jahii Carson is among the nation’s “elite” point guards, showing the ability to maximize his skills while running an offense, and attracting serious interest from the NBA. However, there are still questions: How much of an impediment is his size? Can he sustain the success he experienced last season? Can he go left? Can he survive as a below-the-rim player? We should get a much better idea this season.
3. Jordan Adams | UCLA | Sophomore, 19 years old
G, 6-5, 220
Last season (31.4 MPG): 15.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.2 SPG, 23.7 PER
Outlook: When UCLA brought in a “hyped” 2012 freshmen class—headlined by the triumvirate of Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker—Jordan Adams slipped under the radar. A few months later, however, Adams was widely considered the most important Bruin, as UCLA’s season was finished when Adams broke his foot in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Only 19 years of age, Adams is a smooth shooter with a ton of upside. He has a beautiful shooting stroke from all three levels on the court, is a deft slasher to the hoop, and has good length at 6-5. Adams is nimble on his feet, can settle into defensive pockets and never hesitates on his shot, both in transition and half court. If you let Adams receive the ball in his spots, he’s automatic.
There are two potential question marks when I observe Adams: 1) Is he athletic enough to compete on the NBA level? He’s not athletically challenged, per se, but he may not have the speed or burst to consistently defend in the NBA. He’s more “fluid and smooth” than explosive. Also, can he contribute beyond solely scoring? He led UCLA with a 23.7 Player Efficiency Rating, but posted pedestrian rebounding and assist numbers.
Nevertheless, Adams has good size at 6-5, and is undoubtedly one of the most skilled shooters in the country.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 70.1% Jump Shots | 21.1% Around the Basket | 7.4% Runner | 1.4% Post Up
TRANSITION
21.8 percent of Adams’ baskets came in transition last season, where he posted an excellent 1.294 points per possession, ranking in the 85th percentile nationally. On film, it’s evident Adams has trouble finishing at- or above-the rim, but he can leak out in transition and convert a jump shot from virtually any spot. In fact, his 1.522 PPP shooting from the left wing in transition, and his 1.386 PPP from the right wing were both in the top 20 percent nationally.
If Adams he gets ahead of the defense, he is an excellent shooter in transition.
MID-RANGE
Adams, for lack of a better term, has a “wet” jump shot. He has the length to get it off whenever he desires, and can shoot off balance. As the film shows, Adams often starts on the interior, roaming the baseline until a crease opens. Once it opens, he quickly settles in, receives a pass and goes up for the shot. For a freshman to have that kind of awareness and mid-range ability is uncanny. He rivals Jahii Carson for the best mid-range in the Pac-12.
CUTTING
Adams posted a remarkable 1.571 points per possession on “cuts”, ranking in the top 3 percent nationally. Ben Howland often had Adams run the baseline against a zone, resulting in easy layups and floaters. Adams can also run around screens—a la Richard Hamilton, or more recently, Tony Snell/Ben MacLemore—to create misdirection and an inch of separation.
ISOLATION
Adams averaged 1 point per possession in isolation situations last season, ranking in the top 10 percentile nationally. Adams uses a strong crossover to get by his man one-on-one, and dips his shoulder while driving to embrace contact. He can also pull-up on a dime, and shoot coming off screens. His vast isolation skill set is displayed below.
DEFENSE
While Adams has NBA size, he’s not particularly quick or explosive, which could make it difficult for him to guard NBA shooting guards. Quicker guards can get around him, and bigger guards with an ounce of explosion will usually make things difficult.
That being said, he has quick hands to disrupt passing lanes and accumulate deflections/steals. He led the Pac-12 with 2.2 steals per game, and his 4.2 steal percentage was 39th in the country, per KenPom.com.
Much of Adams’ freshman season was overshadowed by “what could’ve been”, as he was on the cusp of breaking through in the NCAA Tournament prior to getting injured. I think we should wait to see how Adams’ defense has developed—or possibly even regressed—since last season before making any definitive statements.
OVERALL
Adams quickly established himself as one of the most dangerous scorers in college basketball last season, and firmly put himself on the NBA radar. He was also on pace to have a productive NCAA Tournament before getting injured. These were his totals in the last five games before he went down:
Arizona – 6 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 steals
@ Washington State – 18 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 4 steals
@ Washington – 17 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 steals
Arizona State – 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals
Arizona – 24 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals
With a quick start already this season (16 points last night against a tough Drexel team), Adams should return at full form. He could lead the Pac-12 in scoring, and if he can consistently defend at a high level, he should solidify himself as a first-round talent.
4. Kyle Anderson | UCLA | Sophomore, 20 years old
PG/SF, 6-8, 235
Last season (29.9 MPG): 9.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 20.2 PER
Outlook: On paper, Anderson is one of the most unique players in the country — he’s 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan, with the size of a wing and the skills of a point guard. But for all of his physical gifts and versatility, Anderson is a below-the-rim, flat-footed, Slow Motion (his nickname in high school was literally “Slow Mo”) player who’s lack of athleticism tends to surface at some point every game. Sometimes Anderson looks like he is attacking the defense and proceeding at his own speed, but other times he looks a step behind.
So where does Anderson lie in the context of the NBA Draft? Even after a full year of college basketball, it’s still difficult for me to definitively appraise Anderson’s NBA potential. I say this because I saw him dominate his high school class, but I’m not blind to the athletic shortcomings which hinder him.
Last season, Anderson was an “average” player in both half court and transition. His .938 points per possession in transition situations ranked in the 34th percentile nationally, while his .794 points per possession in the half court ranked in the 49th percentile. Granted, though, UCLA’s crowded backcourt of Larry Drew, Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams made it tough for Anderson to establish a rhythm and find his role in the offense (he averaged the fourth most shot attempts on the team, and played the fourth most minutes).
Let’s take a look at Anderson’s game.
Jump Shot
Anderson posted a below average .667 points per possession in spot up situations, ranking in the bottom 20 percentile nationally. But, for the sake of this evaluation, just disregard those numbers — after all, only 13.3% of his shots were spot-ups.
Simply by watching the video, we can dissect Anderson’s jump shot. He a slow release and poor lift on his shot, basically counteracting his own advantage (height). Defenders can play off him but still have time to contest his shot. Also, on a few of the clips, Anderson unnecessarily fades away on his release.
Runner
Anderson uses his length to get into the paint, and he also sets up in the high post (especially against a zone), so last season we saw him attempt quite a few runners. He was average at best on runners, shooting 33.3% from the field on such attempts, and I think his struggles are directly attributable to 1) his hesitancy to make decisions, and 2) his lack of “burst” in the paint.
In the first clip, Anderson uses a quick crossover to get by his man, but then panics in the paint, throwing up a jump-pass-shot at the rim. Anderson has touch, but man, his lack of self-confidence on drives really held him back last season. Anderson missed more than a few runners at point-blank range.
EURO-STEP?
Because Anderson’s lack of athleticism makes it difficult to finish in open space, after watching some film a thought occured to me: Anderson is a silky-smooth player; why not perfect a smooth Euro-step? If he can time his Euro-step correctly, his length is too much for anyone to stay with him. Here is one example:
DEFENDING JUMP SHOTS
Although very tall and long, Anderson surrendered .983 points per possession on jump shots, ranking in the bottom 30 percentile. When you look at the film, it seems Anderson often inexplicably backs off his man, and stands there ball-watching. This results in easy jump shots for the opposition. I’m not sure if Anderson backs off because he thinks he can fully recover and get a hand up, or because he’s a bit lazy, but as the clips below show, he doesn’t have the type of close-out speed to nonchalantly back off his man.
PICK-AND-ROLL DEFENSE
Anderson length enables him to deflect passes and alter shots—he posted 2.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per 40 minutes, pace adjusted—consistently making his presence felt on the defensive end. However, his lack of athleticism leaves him susceptible to quicker guards, and he often gets beat one-on-one.
Anderson can go under screens and still recover to contest a jump shot, or can go over screens. He can also switch onto a big man, or even blitz-trap a big man in the post, using his length to force a steal (we see this at the :35 second mark).
OVERALL
Perhaps no returning player will have more to prove than Kyle Anderson this season. With a new head coach, new freedom (Larry Drew and Shabazz Muhammad—the two most-featured UCLA backcourt players last season—are gone), and with an entire offseason to retool his game for the college level, Anderson will have a chance to fully prove himself this season. His unique physical makeup and solid floor vision will always intrigue NBA scouts, but questions about athleticism and inability to finish through contact persist as well. If Anderson has true NBA promise, this is the season he’ll show it.
5. CJ Wilcox | Washington | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-5, 195
Last season (34.8 MPG): 16.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 20.7 PER
Outlook: Standing at 6-5, CJ Wilcox’s game revolves around a beautiful jump shot and excellent size for his position (6-5 height and 6-8 wingspan). Wilcox is a dynamic shooter who has a good feel for the game and can score in a variety of ways from the perimeter.
Wilcox is excellent shooting off screens (46 percent), and spotting up (37 percent), where nearly 50 percent of his shot attempts came from. He also shot a solid 37 percent from 3-point range. Case in point: Wilcox is a great shooter. His size and length have also made him an effective slasher, scoring on 61% of his cuts.
There are some reservations with Wilcox as an NBA prospect, mostly because he’ll be 23 next June. This causes some to believe his success is due to maturity rather than basketball acumen. In any case, his size and shooting are too much to simply dismiss.
Wilcox is a pure shooter, but he does have some flaws as a prospect. He’s not particularly adept at creating clean looks off the dribble, and is an average finisher at the rim (1 point per possession, 36th percentile). He developed a fairly reliable floater last season, but he’s still best suited to space the floor as a shooter rather than initiate offense for the team.
Wilcox’s jump shot is definitely praise-worthy, but there are question marks surrounding his lack of finishing ability and also his pedestrian 3.4 free throw attempts last season. In my opinion, much of this stems from a lack of killer instinct — Wilcox needs to adopt a more aggressive mindset on offense.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 72.8% Jump Shots | 16.3% Around the Basket | 8.4% Runner | 2.5% Post Up
STRENGTHS
SHOOTING OFF SCREENS
Wilcox’s favorite shot last season was curling around screens, which composed 24.5 percent of his attempts. He shot an exceptional 46 percent coming off screens. It is equally impressive when viewed on film.
Wilcox can seemingly run off screens for days, and he doesn’t much space to get his shot off. Similar to what New Mexico did with Tony Snell last year, running Wilcox off screens will get the entire offense—and opposing defense—moving, as it creates misdirection and also mismatches when the big men and guards switch.
Wilcox has a quick release on his jump shot, and he’ll make you pay if you give him even an inch of space. He has solid technique and a smooth follow through, and could be the best pure shooter in the Pac-12.
ISOLATION
Wilcox’s 1.04 points per possession in isolation was excellent, as he ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally. He can easily go left as well, making him a two-way threat.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Aggressiveness
Wilcox has a relatively skinny frame, and defenders can throw him off balance with a little contact. He also has trouble “dipping his shoulder,” which factors into him struggling to draw contact and get to the free throw line.
DEFENSE
He has a tendency to remain upright in his stance, basically negating any size and length advantage he has. He posted a poor .975 points per possession in defending isolation plays, ranking in the 13th percentile nationally. On film, it’s obvious his lack of focus, fundamentals, and physicality leave him vulnerable. Let’s take a look at two clips of Wilcox playing on-ball defense.
In this clip, Wilcox stays high in his stance, plays close but without any leverage, is loose on his feet, and unnecessarily goes for the steal. A prime example of how not to play on-ball defense.
Again, here Wilcox doesn’t move well laterally, gets out-muscled and gives up a basket. It’s plays like these that reel in all the “potential” Wilcox has.
Wilcox must adopt a more aggressive mindset, particularly on defense.
OVERALL
Wilcox’s draft range is still wide open. At the least, he should have the ability to be role-player/spot-up shooter/floor-spacer at the NBA level. His length and athleticism are intriguing, and make him versatile. However, several question marks remain. Does his injury history foreshadow an unfortunate reality? Can he get low on defense? Can he start attacking the rim with more purpose? Wilcox has value at the NBA level, but the extent is still unclear.
6. Nick Johnson | Arizona | Junior, 20 years old
G, 6-3, 200
Last season (31.4 MPG): 11.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.9 SPG, 19.3 PER
Outlook: Nick Johnson has had an up-and-down first two seasons at Arizona. He ran into trouble as an undersized shooting guard, and has spent last year refining his game to become more of a lead guard. Johnson is a savvy guard with terrific on-ball defense and athleticism.
However, he struggles to create his own shot, and offensively relies more on athleticism than skill, which hinders him when trying to beat his man or score through contact.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 63.7% Jump Shots | 12.7% Runner | 19% Around the Basket | 4.6% Post-Ups
PICK-AND-ROLL DEFENSE
Johnson posted an above-average .658 points per possession defending the pick-and-roll last season, which ranked in the 60th percentile nationally. However, on tape, Johnson looks like a terrific—not above-average—pick and roll defender.
Johnson applies constant pressure while moving with his man laterally. He goes under screens, but has the speed and instincts to fully recover and close-out on his man. He can also hedge towards the big man just enough to take away a possible passing lane, and still be in position to contest the “open” jump shot. I don’t think there’s any doubt who Sean Miller will rely on to guard the best guard on the opposing team this season.
CATCH-AND-SHOOT 3-POINT SHOOTING
Offensively, last season Johnson recorded a 51.6 effective field goal percentage, and shot 39 percent from 3-point range.
However, how he created those shot opportunities played a significant role in the outcome. Johnson was particularly effective on catch-and-shoot jump shots—which composed 33% of all his jump shot attempts—where his 1.243 points per possession ranked in the 87th percentile nationally.
In “off the dribble” jump shots, though, Johnson’s .864 points per possession ranked worse than 76 percent of all players. The snippet of film below demonstrates why: When Johnson creates off the dribble, he doesn’t have a great feel for what he’s doing, and loses himself; it’s almost as if the ball is “hot potato,” trying to get rid of it at the first possible opportunity. This lends itself to poor decision making and inconsistent shooting form. In the clip below, Johnson shoots a total of 10 times, and all 10 times his lower body moved differently. On some shots his hips weren’t squared, on others he brought his feet together, and on others he was leaning sideways.
Johnson has proper form on catch-and-shoot attempts, but his athletic (rather than skilled) makeup surfaces when creating off the dribble.
TRANSITION
29.9 percent of Johnson’s shot attempts came in transition, where he posted a decent 1.008 points per possession (46th percentile). Johnson can fly through the air, but without ball skills, his athleticism in the open court can only take him so far.
DRIVING
Johnson’s lack of ball handling/offensive moves is also evident in his (non-existent) isolation game. His .417 points per possession on drives ranked in the bottom 9 percent nationally, which indicates he will need to do more than just attack the paint for an aerial jaunt.
OVERALL
Johnson was at one point considered to be a one-and-done prospect, but he has encountered his share of troubles at Arizona. He should play a true combo-guard role this year. If he can prove to be more than just an explosive athlete who can play defense and make open shots—as in, if he finally expands his offensive repertoire—he could be an intriguing prospect next June.
7. Dominic Artis | Oregon | Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 185
Last season (23.8 MPG): 8.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 14.1 PER
Mobile: 510-415-3800
Outlook: Standing at 6-1, Dominic Artis is a gritty Oakland-bred point guard with playmaking ability in the half court, and a smooth jump shot from 3-point range. Artis is short and doesn’t have much athleticism to boast, but he’s a tough kid who projects to have an upward trajectory throughout his career at Oregon. Obviously, that “upward trajectory” has been paused at the moment, due to a recent nine-game suspension for selling shoes illicitly.
As a freshman, Artis contributed with shooting (particularly from deep), passing and—despite his size—playing impressive on-ball defense. However, his offensive game was limited; he struggled to do anything inside the 3-point line, struggled finishing in the paint and was even worse in transition. If he’s going to develop into an NBA prospect—a la, say, an Isaiah Cannon—Artis will need to iron out every kink in his offensive game while consistently defending at a strong level. The bright side: he has time to do so.
Shot Attempt Breakdown:
67% Jump Shots — 1.053 points per possession (80th percentile), 39.4 FG%
20.3% Around the Basket — 1.05 PPP (45th percentile), 52.5 FG%
12.7% Runner — .32 PPP (6th percentile), 16 FG%
STRENGTHS: Three-Point Shooting, Floor Vision
NEEDS TO IMPROVE: Transition Scoring, Developing a Runner, Transition Turnovers
STRENGTHS
Three-Point Shooting
Sixty-five percent of Artis’ jump shot attempts were from 3-point range, where he shot an excellent 1.221 points per possession (95th percentile), and shot an overall 41% from deep.
Artis can shoot off the dribble, or catch-and-shoot. He is dangerous either way, and must be accounted for at all times. What’s interesting is Artis wasn’t a strong jump shooter in high school; if that’s any indication, he’ll hopefully improve the rest of his game in due time as well.
Floor Vision
Artis sees the floor extremely well, mostly in the half court. His 26.9 assist percentage (the percentage of teammate field goals Artis assisted while he was on the floor) was most on Oregon and ranked 6th in the Pac-12.
As the tape shows, Artis can make both the simple and difficult pass, and can thread-the-needle when neccesary. He seems to know where his teammates are, on the wing wing, in the post, or a trailer in transition.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Transition Turnovers
Twenty percent of Artis’ plays were in transition last season. Unfortunately for Oregon, he scored an abysmal 0.6 points per possession in transition, which ranked in the bottom four percentile nationally(!). Artis would often turn the ball over before he could even get a shot up, either by throwing an ill-advised pass or by getting stripped. In fact, he turned the ball over on 21 of his 70 transition opportunities last season (30%), an inefficient rate to say the least.
Transition Scoring
Because of Artis’ diminutive size and lack of athleticism, he often has to finish around bigger defenders in transition. He struggles to draw contact (only 1.9 free throw attempts per game), struggles going left, and has a tough time finishing at the rim. In order to finish with more consistency, Artis should develop some sort of “runner,” which is what we’ll examine next.
Runners
Considering he was so effective in the paint during high school, it was very surprising that Artis struggled so mightily on his floater last season. He shot runners on only 12.7 percent of his attempts, posting a 0.32 points per possession, which ranked in the bottom six percent nationally.
Because he is so small, defenders can stay with Artis and contest his drives. To combat this, he should either develop some kind of hesitation move (a step-back, maybe), or ideally, a smooth runner. If you’re a small guard in a transition-heavy setting, it’s essential to have a reliable floater/runner. This will make you unpredictable, keeping the dense on its toes and in turn creating opportunities for others.
Defensive Gambles
It would be foolish to say Artis is a “poor” defender. In fact, most people would say Artis is a great defender — he slides his feet well, and his 3.8 steals percentage last season ranked 93rd nationally, per KenPom.com. So, yes, Dominic Artis is a good defender. In fact, earlier in this evaluation I said Artis is an “impressive defender”.
But that doesn’t mean he’s perfect. Sure, Artis is a good defender, but he also cost his team numerous baskets last season due to easily-avoidable mistakes. Artis gambles a lot on defense; he sometimes gets overzealous with his quick hands, lunging toward his defender and giving him an open lane to blow by him. There are even times when he simply plays unnecessarily tight near the half-court line. If he gets beat at half court, Artis doesn’t have the length or speed to recover.
Artis should tweak his defensive habits to stay sound and only apply pressure when necessary. I think he will, but I also think it’s something worth monitoring.
OVERALL
Artis’ college career has been up and down to this point. He started off his career playing very well, as he was the starting point guard for an Oregon team that began the season 18-2. Then, in late January, he went down with a near-broken ankle, and subsequently missed the next nine games. When he returned to action, Johnathan Loyd was playing too well for Dana Altman to go back to Artis. As a result, Artis never regained his initial form.
Assuming he returns to the starting lineup after his suspension is over, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments—if any—Artis worked on over the summer. Has he developed a floater? Can he handle pressure in the open court? Has he ironed out the kinks on defense? Playing on a stacked Oregon team, Artis will certainly have opportunities. It’s on him to produce.
8. Justin Cobbs | California | Senior, 22 years old
G, 6-2, 190
Last season (35.6 MPG): 15.1 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.5 RPG, 45 percent FG%, 4.6 FTA, 18.5 PER
Outlook: With Allen Crabbe gone, Justin Cobbs will be the unquestioned leader of California this season, and has a chance to have a breakout all Pac-12 year. Cobbs is California’s top returning scorer (15.1 PPG), was fourth in the Pac-12 in assists last season (4.8), and top-150 nationally in assist percentage. He is hoping to convince scouts his skills can translate to the NBA level.
Cobbs is a strong playmaker in the half court, as he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can both initiate and facilitate offense for his team. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks and get himself to the free-throw line (4.6 free throws per game last season). Cobbs is also durable, as he played the 7th most minutes in the Pac-12 last season. He reportedly had a strong showing at the Deron Williams Skills Academy in June, and hopefully got some candid feedback from NBA scouts.
Average ball handling skills, and inconsistent decision-making required at point guard is what’s holding Cobbs back right now. He often gets trapped on the pick-and-roll, leading to an excess of turnovers and chaotic possessions. Nevertheless, now fully recovered from a foot injury he sustained earlier in the summer, Cobbs will have a great opportunity to prove himself this season.
Let’s take a look at Cobbs’ offensive arsenal; namely, his half-court scoring ability, and how he can improve in transition and pick-and-roll situations.
Shot Selection: 73.9% Jump Shots | 8.7% Runners | 15.4% Around the Basket | 2% Post Ups
HALF-COURT SCORING
Cobbs has a diverse half court game, as he can shoot from outside and also penetrate the lane. He has a smooth crossover, and when in a rhythm, can dictate the tempo and course of the game.
Seventy-four percent of Cobbs’ attempts were jump shots, where he produced .95 points per possession (65th percentile nationally), and 15.4% of his attempts were “around the basket,” where he posted an excellent 1.304 points per possession (86th percentile). Jabari Bird and Tyrone Wallace provide Cobbs with some weapons despite Allen Crabbe’s departure.
TRANSITION STRUGGLES
Cobbs struggled in transition last season, where his lack of size, athleticism and finishing ability made it difficult to score.
In the first sequence above, he can’t convert over the length of a UNLV help defender; in the second sequence, Cobbs can’t convert over 6-10 forward Travis Wear; uber-long Kyle Anderson easily blocks Cobbs in the third sequence; in the fourth, Cobbs attempts to dip his shoulder into the lane, but can’t covert; and in the fifth clip, Cobbs misses a point-blank layup.
Cobbs will need to find ways to compensate for his lack of athleticism in transition—perhaps by incorporating a runner (used on only 4.5% of possessions last season), developing a hesitation move or improving his pull-up jump shot.
PICK-AND-ROLL STRUGGLES
Lacking elite speed and ball handling, Cobbs turned the ball over on 17.5% of his pick-and-rolls last season. As the film shows, defenders had success trapping him, using their length to eliminate any bail-out pass and essentially suffocate him into turning the ball over. Cobbs also had trouble keeping his dribble alive, where he would either attempt a jump-pass or a shot attempt from an unreasonable distance.
Cobbs needs to work on keeping his head up, and making decisions in a reactive—instead of thought-out—way.
OVERALL
Cobbs isn’t a traditional point guard in my estimation, but he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can penetrate the defense. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks.
Overall, if Cobbs can increase his assist numbers, develop his handle and show more I’m the best point guard on the court ability, I think NBA attention will come his way. However, even if he does prove to be a dynamic playmaker, with his athletic shortcomings, it will be tough for him to be a legitimate point guard on the NBA level.
9. Royce Woolridge | Washington State (via Kansas) | Junior, 21 years old
G, 6-2, 180
Last season (32.0 MPG): 11 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 15.1 PER
Outlook: After committing to Kansas as an eighth grader, Woolridge had a brief stay in Lawrence, transferring after a freshman year in which he played a measly 2.8 minutes per game.
Woolridge is first and foremost a polished scorer. He has a quick first step and a wide frame to maneuver his way and score through traffic. He’s an excellent shooter, both in catch-and-shoot and off the dribble situations, and is also a solid pick-and-roll player. Woolridge is not very athletic, and doesn’t have exceptional speed, but he has a polished game and the ability to stick to his strengths.
All things considered, in my opinion Woolridge has the skill set to be considered at the NBA level. However, he faces one (potentially) monstrous problem: he’s a shooting guard in the body of a point guard. At only 6-2, Williams is undersized to play SG, but his skill set is of a “shooting guard.” If he can develop his facilitating skills and become more of a playmaker—and this is a big “if”, considering it requires him to reinvent his game—he’ll have a chance to prove himself at the next level. If he stays as a one-dimensional college scorer, he probably won’t have a chance.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 55.3% Jump Shots | 37.1% Around the Basket | 7.6% Runner
STRENGTHS
Isolation
Woolridge posted a .908 points per possession in isolation situations, ranking in the 79th percentile nationally. He has a developing arsenal of moves, highlighted by an ability to attack going right. He also seems to drive at the perfect angle, using his hips to shield the defender and maintain a clear look at the basket. He can also use a step-back when driving at full speed, to create separation and knock down a jump shot. Examples are below:
Spot Up / Catch-and-Shoot
Woolridge also displayed a soft shooting touch last season, posing a solid 1.074 PPP in spot-up situations (81st percentile), and an excellent 1.271 PPP in catch-and-shoot situations (90th percentile). In fact, he was even better in “guarded” catch-and-shoots than “unguarded” catch-and-shoots, showcasing the ability to create and covert difficult shots. Let’s take a look at his spot-up ability, followed by his catch-and-shoot ability.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Facilitating
Although he led Washington State with 2.7 assists per game, on film it’s evident Woolridge has a score-first mindset. Granted, there weren’t many options for him to pass to, but if he’s going to make the transition to point guard, Woolridge will have to expand his mindset to look for his teammates as much as he looks for his own shot.
Pick-and-Roll
Woolridge’s struggles playing the point are perhaps most applicable in the pick-and-roll. Again, it’s not like his teammates were the most active off the ball, but still, as the clip below demonstrates, Woolridge was easily flustered on the P-n-R. He would often pick up his dribble and subsequently throw up an ill-advised jump shot, or defenders would expose his ball handling by trapping him and forcing a turnover (0:25 mark).
OVERALL
Woolridge was the Cougars’ second-leading scorer and assist leader in his first season with the team. Now as a junior, he will be handed the keys to the offense and given the freedom to make plays. If he can expand his game to develop his point guard skills (ball handling, patience, floor vision), he’ll take steps in the right direction.
10. Roberto Nelson | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-4, 195
Last season (31.3 MPG): Last season: 17.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, 22.4 PER
Mobile: 805-698-7838
Outlook: Standing at 6-4, Roberto Nelson is a sharpshooting guard with terrific range on his jump shot and the ability to score in bunches. Nelson is a terrific spot-up shooter, and is excellent coming off screens. He quickly sets his feet and can rise for a shot.
Problem is—and I don’t mean to sound insubstantial or dismissive—Nelson is athletically challenged, and the scope of his NBA potential doesn’t extend past being a good shooter. He doesn’t have a noteworthy dribble-drive game, is a poor on-ball defender, is an average passer/rebounder, and has difficulty handling the ball against pressure. Perhaps Nelson could carve out a niche as a spot-up sharpshooter in the NBA, but as of now it seems unlikely.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 56.5% Jump Shots | 34.6% Around Basket | 5.2% Post Ups | 3.7%
STRENGTHS
Spot Up
Nelson shot an excellent 1.088 points per possession on spot-up situations, ranking in the 83rd percentile nationally. Spot-up shooting is Nelson’s biggest strength.
Nelson can find open spots within the defense, and is always ready to release. He has solid shooting form, and can heat up to either extend or shrink a lead in a matter of minutes. There’s not much to criticize about Nelson’s shooting.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Transition
Nelson posted a below average .938 points per possession “around the basket”, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. Faster and more athletic defenders can easily disrupt Nelson’s attempts at the rim. Again, Nelson can shoot open 3′s, but he struggles to create off the dribble/facilitate for teammates.
Pick-and-Roll
Nelson’s lack of quickness negatively affects his pick-and-roll ability. He recorded an extraordinarily high 20.4 turnover rate on pick-and-rolls last season, and shot 32 percent on such plays. Defenders can easily blitz-trap Nelson, making him pick up his dribble almost automatically.
Pick-and-Roll Defense
I wouldn’t be so hard on Nelson if, for all of his offensive shortcomings, he were at least a decent defender. But he struggled on defense as well last season. In defending the pick-and-roll, Nelson doesn’t get down in a proper defensive stance, has trouble moving his feet laterally, hardly applies resistance, and—due to a combination of technique and a skinny frame—can get out-muscled. Nelson’s lack of speed automatically calls for the big man to “switch,” which will often causes a mismatch. Not a good look here.
OVERALL
Nelson is a very tough kid (his mother passed away when he was younger, and his father has been in prison for most of Roberto’s college career, yet he’s managed to keep his focus and play well), but his upside doesn’t extend past being a good spot-up shooter. In my opinion, it will be difficult for him to carve out a nice in the NBA.