North Carolina 93, Louisville 84
Sunday, November 24, 2013 | 1:00 p.m. EST | Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, CT)
North Carolina 4-1, Louisville 5-1
Recap: Marcus Paige scored a career-high 32 points, Brice Johnson contributed 13 points and 5 rebounds, and freshman Kennedy Meeks added 13 points, 12 rebounds and 7 assists to help North Carolina defeat Louisville 93-84. Russ Smith (36 points) and Chris Jones (20 points) kept it competitive, but Louisville produced only 8 assists as a team, and played “individual” basketball for most of the night.
Kevin Keatts (Assistant Coach, Louisville): 502-424-5122 (cell)
NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):
1) Montrezl Harrell (SO, Louisville): PF, 6-8, 230, 20 years old
2) James Michael McAdoo (JR, North Carolina): SF, 6-9, 230, 21 years old
3) Russ Smith (SR, Louisville): G, 6-0, 165, 23 years old
4) Brice Johnson (SO, North Carolina): PF, 6-9, 210, 19 years old
Tier 2
5) Chris Jones (JR, Louisville (via NorthWest Florida State JC)): PG, 5-10, 175, 22 years old
6) Marcus Paige (SO, North Carolina): PG, 6-1, 175, 20 years old
7) Chane Behanan (JR, Louisville): F, 6-6, 250, 21 years old
8) J.P. Tokoto (SO, North Carolina): SF, 6-6, 185, 20 years old
—-
NBA Prospects
1) Montrezl Harrell — Sophomore, 20 years old
PF, 6-8, 235
Season (25.6 mpg): 12.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 59% field goal percentage
Game: 5 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 5 fouls
Outlook: Standing at 6-10 with a 7-3 wingspan, Montrezl Harrell is a versatile power forward with supreme athleticism and an unlimited motor. He struggles to create his own shot, and doesn’t have much of a “post game,” but Harrell’s awareness around the rim and impressive physical attributes give him upside. Harrell is mobile and fluid in the open floor, catches the ball with strong hands and finishes above the rim. Defensively, he can guard bigger players because of his length and athleticism, and has the timing to reject shots at the rim. He appears to have legitimate potential as a weak-side defender as well.
A high motor accentuates Harrell’s physical attributes, and considering he’s only 20 years old, he looks to have a high upside.
STRENGTHS
TRANSITION (ATHLETICISM)
Harrell is a huge threat in the open floor. He explodes off the ground, with a second and third bounce. His 1.21 points transition last season ranked in the 75th percentile nationally, and his current numbers mirror last year’s production.
CUTTING
32% of Harrell’s baskets this season have come in the form of “cutting/slashing” to the hoop, and according to Synergy Sports, he’s shooting 72% on those attempts. Harrell roams the baseline, often receiving a bounce pass and simultaneously going up for a quick jaunt towards the hoop. His quick bounce and strong frame allow him to finish through contact.
PUT-BACKS / OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING / NATURAL PHYSICALITY
Harrell’s physicality and athleticism also make him a force on the glass. He averages 3.7 offensive rebounds per game, and his 14% offensive rebounding percentage (the percentage of possible o-rebounds Harrell secures when on the floor) ranks 110th in the country. He has a strong frame to establish rebounding position in the paint, but most of the time Harrell uses his athleticism to catch a tip-in. His second and third bounce is a factor on the glass as well.
INTERIOR DEFENSE / CONTESTING
Harrell is a versatile defender—against North Carolina, he defended three completely different players: James Michael McAdoo (lean, face-up), Kennedy Meeks (chubby post man with girth), and Brice Johnson (slender, runs the floor).
However, Harrell has trouble defending quick forwards who can shoot. Jump-shooting forwards can take Harrell outside and face him up, where he’s more susceptible right now. Harrell is an excellent defender on the interior, though. Contests post-ups and alters shots in his vicinity. Opposing players scored only .62 points per possession last season, a mark in the top 88th percentile among all players. Furthermore, Harrell held opponents to 30% shooting around the basket. He seems to take pride in playing interior defense, and has the physical attributes to eventually excel in this area.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
POST-UP STRUGGLES
While his physical tools and high motor are impressive, Harrell is not a great post player right now. Visibly uncomfortable scoring with his back to the basket, and relies on athleticism way too much. For example, he’ll establish position in the paint, but once he has the ball, he’ll aimlessly jump and try to “figure it out” mid-air
Harrell shot only 23.5% on post-ups last season (17 attempts). An incremental step forward in his post game would be encouraging.
SHOOTING STRUGGLES
Quite frankly, Harrell has horrible shooting form. There’s just no way around it.
His form changes every time he shoots the ball, and he struggles to make uncontested jump shots, let alone contested ones. He hardly attempts jump shots (9% of attempts last season; 19% of attempts this season), and his struggles are apparent on film.
DEFENDING SHOOTERS
Harrell has difficulty defending shooters, particularly off the dribble. Opponents scored 1.2 points per play against him on jump shots last season (bottom 80th percentile), and they are scoring 1.33 PPP so far this season (bottom 90th percentile). Harrell needs to become sounder defensively, especially from 15-feet and out.
2) James Michael McAdoo — Junior, 21 years old
SF, 6-9, 230
Season (31 mpg): 13.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.3 SPG
Game: 9 points, 2 rebounds (3-11 field goals)
Outlook: Standing at 6-9 with a 7-1 wingspan, James McAdoo is a smooth combo forward with good bounce and body control, and a developing jump shot. High motor, and can impact the game while playing within the framework of an offense. He has the athleticism to score around the basket, and is slowly developing face up game.
He struggles to defend off the dribble and in the paint, but he has shown improvement this season, which is encouraging. McAdoo’s increasingly polished skill set, coupled with his patient approach and college experience, give him one of the highest upsides in the ACC. If he lands in the right NBA system—where he’s afforded the time to make mistakes, become more consistent and find his comfort zone—he has a chance to make an impact at the next level.
Field Goals
McAdoo had a relatively quiet game vs. Louisville, but his abilities were nonetheless transparent. I believe McAdoo’s future hinges on the development of his jump shot. As the video below shows, when his shot is falling, McAdoo is very difficult to stop.
STRENGTHS
Around The Basket Scoring (Scoring with Momentum)
McAdoo has made a concentrated effort to extend his game outside this season…
Shot Attempt Distribution:
(2012-2013) 22.4% Jump Shots | 45% Around Basket | 30% Post-Ups
(2013-2014) 35.7% Jump Shots | 32.1 Around Basket | 26.8% Post-Ups
I think it’s smart for McAdoo to concentrate on improving his jump shot this year. Conversely, though, the decrease in “around the basket” attempts shouldn’t be viewed as a decrease in ability. Although McAdoo is scoring 1.04 points per possession around the basket this season (compared to 1.33 last season), he’s converting 50% of his attempts. And when you watch the film, his quick bounce and astute body angling are apparent. He can also finish with either hand.
DEFENDING SHOOTERS
McAdoo is not the best defender—quicker players can break him down—but he has the length and athleticism to compensate. In other words, because of his 7-1 wingspan, he can slightly sag off his man but still be in position to effectively contest a perimeter attempt. McAdoo’s .77 points allowed per possession on jump shots last season was a solid mark, ranking in the 72nd percentile of all college players.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
JUMP SHOT
Shooting is McAdoo’s “Achilles’ heel” right now. An improved jump shot would force defenders to play him tighter, which in turn would expand his offensive game significantly. McAdoo has struggled shooting throughout his career; he shot 28% on 96 jump shot attempts last season, and is currently 2-20 this season(!). No good.
POST-UP GAME
We already discussed how McAdoo is lethal attacking the basket with momentum. But creating his own shot in the paint is a different story.
McAdoo operates with his back to the basket on nearly 70% of his post up possessions, but he is a great post player. He’s been soft in the paint. With his back to the basket, his go-to move is, of all things, a fadeaway jump shot. That should be his last option, not his first instinct.
In all fairness, it usually takes NBA small forwards several years before developing a reliable post-up game, so this is not an indictment on McAdoo. However, he has so much potential in the post due to his size and bounce that it’s imperative he optimize this area of the floor.
3) Russ Smith — Senior, 23 years old
G, 6-0, 165
Season (27 mpg): 17.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, 46% field goal percentage, 6.8 three-point attempts per game
Game: 36 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists
Outlook: Smith had a terrific game, scoring 11 points in the first five minutes, and ultimately finishing with 36 points. He is fearless lead guard, with a smooth handle and the ability to consistently convert difficult shots.
But how does he translate to the NBA? On one hand, he’s an undersized lead guard, with no true position. Plus, in the NBA, he will face elite size and athleticism every night, which will make it difficult for him to even get his shot off. Also, can he guard NBA point guards? He’s already 23 years old, and not there yet defensively—his defensive rating of 88.8 last season was the least efficient among all Louisville guards.
Those on the other end of the spectrum—including Louisville coach Rick Pitino—say Smith will be even more effective in the NBA, where the League’s shorter shot clock is conducive to Smith’s style of play. This line of thinking is, Why can’t Smith provide value as a change-of-pace scorer off the bench.
Video: 36 points vs. UNC
STRENGTHS
TRANSITION
Smith is very dangerous in transition, where he has a quick release on his jump shot, and very fast end-to-end speed. He also has exceptional body control, and can finish layups at ridiculous angles. He gets to the rim at will, though he needs to finish with more consistency. This is evidenced on film, but also by Smith’s 1.13 points per play in transition, which ranks in the 59th percentile among all players.
PICK-AND-ROLL SCORING
Smith has been very effective scoring off the pick and roll this season, converting 52% of his attempts. His 1.18 PPP in pick-and-roll situations ranks in the 92nd percentile, and on film, it’s evident why. With an inch of separation coming around a screen, Smith can pull-up for a three-pointer or take it into the lane where—as previously mentioned—he can convert difficult layups.
However, lacking elite athleticism Smith will presumably struggle to get separation on the pick and roll in the NBA. He may need to adapt his game to pass out of the pick and roll with more precision. Small sample size, but he looked good against UNC.
COURT VISION (THIS SEASON)
Smith’s assist numbers are at an all-time high this season. He’s averaging 4.8 assists per game, and his 38% assist percentage ranks 18th in the country. Smith is always looking for his teammates, and isn’t as prone to force a shot against double-teams as he was in the past. Smith will still attack those double-teams, but he seems to be reading the play with a higher IQ and savvy. It’s early in the season, but Smith has two games with 5-plus assists, already matching his total from a season ago.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
DEFENDING SHOOTERS
Smith often struggled to contain shooters last season. His 1.1 PPP allowed on jump shots ranked in the bottom 15th percentile nationally. Smith is prone to gambling in passing lanes, and considering his small stature, he has no margin for error on defense. His lack of size and length gives opposing guards a clear view to shoot over him.
FINISHING AT THE RIM
Smith’s diminutive size, skinny frame and lack of athleticism make it difficult for him to finish through contact. He ranked in the bottom 70th percentile in finishing around the rim last season. Smith needs to put on weight first and foremost, and then work on attacking only if there is an opening in the lane. He won’t last if he comes into the NBA forcing shots and attacking the rim with “tunnel vision.” Smith needs to tone it down a bit.
3-POINT SHOOTING
Smith has an alarming tendency to jack up 3′s early in possessions. This is problematic. He essentially freezes out his teammates and takes his team out of rhythm at the same time. Mechanically, his form is inconsistent. Due to small size, he often attempts off-balance shots, struggling to even get a clear look at the basket.
Smith is currently shooting 33% from 3-point range, averaging 6.8 three-point attempts per game, the most attempts in his career. He can knock 3-pointers when he’s on, but like the rest of his game, Smith is streaky in this regard. Already 23 years old, Smith needs to be more prudent in his shot selection.
4) Brice Johnson — Sophomore, 19 years old (turns 20 on June 27, one day after NBA Draft)
PF, 6-9, 210
Season (20.1 min): 13.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG
Game: 13 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks, 6-7 from the field
Outlook: Johnson really impressed me vs. Louisville. Standing at 6-9 with a 6-11 wingspan, he could be the most bouncy forward in the country. In high school, he won consecutive South Carolina state championships in the high jump, and set records in the long and triple jump. Johnson is an athletic freak who—despite his skinny frame—competes hard on every possession.
Johnson is way too skinny right now though. But if he gains weight, he has a chance to make it.
On one play in the first half, Johnson stuffed a Montrezl Harrell dunk attempt at the rim, then ran up the court in four strides to catch an alley-oop. On a play in the second half, Johnson caught a put back “and-one” dunk over Harrell. He’s so bouncy that he literally has to restrain himself from going “all out” when jumping. If you throw the ball up, Johnson will go and get it.
Johnson is a surprisingly good finisher around the basket, with a soft touch to accentuate his athleticism. He struggles to finish through contact, though. Nimble on his feet and swift in his motions, but lacks touch, muscle and go-to moves in the post.
Johnson is a very raw prospect at this point, but if he can add muscle, and continues to average 13.6 points and 7 rebounds on 63% shooting (in only 20 minutes per game), he should work his way into the NBA Draft conversation.
TRANSITION
As mentioned, Johnson has tremendous bounce in transition. Weak ball handling skills, but has good size and long arms to finalize plays in the open court.
POST-UPS / PUT-BACKS
Johnson’s development in this area will be key to his future. He’s shooting 52% on “around the basket” attempts and 43% percent on “post up” attempts this season, per Synergy. Furthermore, his 1.34 points per play around the basket ranks in the 80th percentile nationally.
Establishes great position with his feet and angling of his “trunk,” and although he doesn’t have the strongest hands, he is bouncy to get off a clean attempt. He needs to refine his polish, to rely on actual moves rather than athleticism.
OVERALL
Per the above points, Johnson has a lot of work to do—adding muscle, expanding his range to 19-feet, and becoming a little smoother. But he’s also a freak athlete with an increased knack for scoring and rebounding. A unique player who will have to show us more, but all things considered, he’s on the right path.
Tier 2
5) Chris Jones — Junior, 22 years old (via Northwest Florida State Junior College)
PG, 5-10, 175
Season (27 mpg): 14.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 2.3 SPG
Game: 20 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 4-8 three-pointers
*Jones transferred to Louisville from NorthWest Florida State, where he averaged 23 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.2 APG en route to winning JUCO national player of the year last season. He’s been tasked with replacing Peyton Siva as Louisville’s starting point guard.
Outlook: Jones is a physical guard with terrific range on his jump shot and a strong handle. He can create off the dribble, and when he’s in rhythm, has great playmaking ability. He digs in defensively, with a physical frame, pesky hands and constant awareness. A tough point guard with an all-around skill set.
All that being said, though, I have several reservations on Jones’ NBA potential.
He’ll be 22 years old at the time of the Draft, and when I watched him, something was just off. He’s an average athlete, has trouble finishing through contact and seems like he has difficulty playing with the framework of organized basketball. In other words, he can make difficult shots, but he doesn’t provide much in terms of rebounding, assists and basketball IQ.
Not sure if he can create for others, or even get his own shot, at the NBA level. But after observing Jones in one game, he comes up short in several areas. I’m apprehensive right now.
STRENGTHS
JUMP SHOT / SPOT-UP
Jones fits well alongside Russ Smith, at least offensively. He torched North Carolina’s zone defense for four 3-pointers, and has a tight handle to pull-up off the dribble. For the season, he’s shooting 40% off the dribble, and is producing 0.9 points per play, ranking in the 63rd percentile nationally.
PICK-AND-ROLL PASSING
Although he averages only 2.6 assists per game, Jones has been terrific setting-up his teammates on the pick and roll. Teammates are scoring a very good 1.14 points per play on Jones’ pick and roll pass outs (16 possessions). His ability to attack the lane and draw defenders really helps in this regard, especially with Montrezl Harrell roaming the baseline. Jones freezes the defense at the moment the screener hits his man, because he can either shoot off the dribble or penetrate the lane. Surrounded by shooters on the outside and with Harrell down low, Jones has quickly made an impact distributing off the pick and roll.
PICK-AND-ROLL SCORING
Jones is also dangerous driving the ball off screens, scoring an efficient 1 point per play. Jones can pull-up for a jumper, use a floater or finish at the rim. He is particularly adept at seeing a crease in the lane and attacking the open space. However, he lacks the ability to explode through the lane, which gives me pause because NBA big men rarely surrender buckets to undersized, below-the-rim point guards.
Hence…
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
STRUGGLES TO FINISH
Due to his diminutive size and poor athleticism, Jones often struggles to finish at the rim. To his credit, he is crafty with the ball when he drives, and is actually shooting 61% around the basket. But his struggles to at the rim were apparent vs. North Carolina.
DEFENDING JUMP SHOTS
Admittedly, because Louisville plays a considerable amount of zone (43% of possessions), several of the converted baskets in the clip below weren’t a result of poor defense by Jones. But that doesn’t absolve him, either; at 5-10, it’s considerably difficult for him to be “a factor” on the defensive end.
6) Marcus Paige — Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 175
Season (35.6 min): 19.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.0 APG
Game: 32 points, 2 assists, 2 rebounds, 2 steals
9-12 shooting, 3-5 three-pointer, 11-11 free throws
Outlook: Paige had the best performance of any player in this game. He scored 32 points and made countless “dagger,” nail in the coffin plays to put Louisville away. He’s a savvy point guard with NBA range on his jump shot and the quickness to maneuver his way in the lane. He’s also the consummate leader, maintaining his composure at all times and setting the tone for his team. Averaging 19.7 points and 4 assists per game on 47 percent shooting, Paige is a legitimate candidate to win ACC Player of the Year.
vs. Louisville
Paige didn’t showcase any glaring weaknesses, but he lacks NBA size and athleticism, which gives me pause. Furthermore, he was a scoring-oriented point guard in high school, so I want to see if he can sustain his strong assist numbers for the duration of the season. He’s an average athlete, and doesn’t do anything particularly well, but his intangibles are special.
7) Chane Behanan — Junior, 21 years old
F, 6-6, 250
Season (18.4 mpg) – 8.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Game: 7 points, 9 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal
Outlook: Behanan’s calling card is rebounding. He’s relentless on the glass, using a strong upper body and solid athleticism to secure boards and finish second-chance points. Behanan’s 19.7% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 12th in the country. He’s also shooting a very efficient 60% around the basket. However, it’s tough for him to get shots off around the basket due to his limited size.
All things considered, though, rebounding usually translates from college to the NBA,. If he can play well in big games, and his off-court struggles notwithstanding, he has a chance to get drafted in June.
8) J.P. Tokoto — Sophomore, 20 years old
SF, 6-6, 185
Season (27.3 min): 9.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.4 APG
Game: 4 points, 4 rebounds
Outlook: With a wiry 6-6 frame and long 6-9 wingspan, Tokoto is a great athlete who can finish at the rim. But he lacks polish offensively; struggles to shoot, handle the ball, and create for himself.
Tokoto can finish inside 15-feet with impressive leaping ability and touch. But his range is very limited, and as a small forward prospect, he needs to develop some semblance of a perimeter game. We can revisit Tokoto later this season if he improves his jump shot.
POOR JUMP SHOT
AROUND THE BASKET
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 Draft