Author Archives: Eldon Khorshidi

Opposition Report: Temple Owls

Opposition Report: Temple Owls

Thursday, February 20, 9 p.m. ET

*I’ve observed Temple live once this season. 71-66 loss @ Rutgers.

Record
OVERALL: 7-17
CONFERENCE: 2-10 (wins vs. Rutgers, SMU)
HOME: 3-8
ROAD: 1-7
NEUTRAL: 3-2

Offense: 1.07 points per possession (147th)
Defense: 1.11 points allowed per possession (329th)

Temple average possession: 17.2 seconds
UConn average possession: 17.9 seconds

Temple is the worst rebounding team in the conference: 858 rebounds, 919 rebounds allowed
31.8% offensive rebounding percentage in conference games (8th)
64.7% defensive rebounding percentage in conference games

UConn: 903 rebounds, 861 rebounds allowed
34.8% offensive rebounding percentage in conference games (4th)
68% defensive rebounding percentage in conference games

UConn

Point Distribution: 49% 2-Pointers | 29% 3-Pointers | 22% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 54% Jump Shots | 34% Around Basket | 6% Post-Ups | 6% Runner

83% Half Court; 17% Transition

98% man defense; 2% zone

Temple

Point Distribution: 55% 2-Pointers | 26% 3-Pointers | 19% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 48% Jump Shots | 34% Around Basket | 9% Post-Ups | 9% Runner

84% Half-Court, 16% Transition

89% man defense, 11% zone

*If the videos do not appear, please “refresh” the webpage once.

Scouting Report: Columbia vs. Harvard

Harvard 88, Columbia 84 (2OT)

Friday, February 14, 2014 | 7 p.m. ET | Levien Gymnasium (Manhattan, NY)

Harvard 19-4, Columbia 14-10

Recap: Despite Alex Rosenberg’s career-high 34 points, Harvard was able to outlast Columbia in double overtime, 88-84. For the Crimson, Siyani Chambers and Steve Moundou-Missi scored 22 apiece, while Wesley Saunders added 19 points, 7 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks. For Columbia, sophomore guard Maodo Lo contributed 20 points—including 18 in the second half/OT—along with 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Columbia erased a 12-point second half deficit to force overtime, but Harvard simply made more plays down the stretch. With the win, Harvard remains tied with Yale atop the Ivy League standings (7-1).

NBA Prospects

1. Wesley Saunders (JR, Harvard): SG, 6-5, 215

2. Alex Rosenberg (JR, Columbia): PF, 6-7, 215

Next Tier

3. Siyani Chambers (SO, Harvard): PG, 6-0, 170

4. Maodo Lo (SO, Columbia): SG, 6-3, 180

5. Steve Moundou-Missi (JR, Harvard): PF, 6-7, 225

6. Laurent Rivard (SR, Harvard): SG, 6-5, 215

–

NBA Prospects

1. Wesley Saunders — SG, 6-5, 215
Junior

Season (34 mpg): 15 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4 APG, 2 SPG
48% FG, 32% 3-point

Game: 19 points, 7 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals
5-8 FG, 8-12 FT

Outlook: Saunders, a do-it-all wing, has the size, strength and skill to make an impact in any conference. He just happens to play for Harvard.

At 6-5 with long arms and solid athleticism, Saunders contributes in virtually every aspect of the game. He unselfishly—and effectively—distributes the basketball, is a strong rebounder from the wing, and scores efficiently (15 PPG on 48% FG, 55% TS) within the framework of the offense. He’s not a go-to scorer, per se, but he can penetrate the lane and create offense. Saunders did whatever he wanted vs. Columbia. Scoring-wise, he was smooth on the pick and roll, pulling up or taking it to the basket with grace and body control. He’s not the most explosive leaper, but his long arms and strong build allow him to finish through contact. Good shooter, either with his feet set or off the dribble, although not consistent from 3 (32% on 1.3 attempts per game).

Saunders scored 19 points on 8 field goals. I would’ve liked to see him be more aggressive down the stretch, but instead he simply played within the offense until a good shot presented itself. Saunders displayed good passing instincts, as he converged the defense and kicked it to open shooters time and time again.

However, Saunders’ two-way ability is what distinguishes him. Saunders guards the other team’s best perimeter player every game, no exceptions, and still has a major impact offensively. This lends credence not only to his physical makeup, but also his stamina, mental toughness and competitive nature. Saunders is long and physical to contain penetration and contest layups. He averages 2 steals per game, and his 3.4% steal percentage ranks first in the Ivy and 116th nationally. That said, he has an average build by NBA standards, and on film, he appears to struggle containing penetration. He sometimes loses his footing on the perimeter.

I had some reservations about Saunders’ below-average leaping ability (explosiveness), and also about the competition he’s playing against. He’s posted big numbers throughout his career, but I question if Saunders is capable of scoring, distributing and defending against high-major players. Can he create space for himself against NBA defenders? No Columbia player could match Saunders’ physical makeup, let alone his skill set, so it was difficult for me to gauge his NBA potential one way or the other. What I could gauge, however, was that Saunders was the most offensively gifted and polished player on the court.

Here’s Saunders’ shot attempt breakdown this season (FG% in parenthesis):

52% jump shots (44%)
33% around basket (44%)
6.5% runner (17%)
8% post up (47% on 15 attempts)

Video: Unselfish / Court Vision

— Saunders’ 3.9 assists per game is second best on Harvard, despite the fact he hardly brings the ball up the court. He can distribute out of the pick and roll, or penetrate and kick. He is patient and decisive with the basketball. Saunders’ 25.6% assist percentage ranks 197th nationally.

Video: Attacking the Basket

— Saunders has good extension and body control to finish once in the paint. Smooth rip-through in the triple threat position, and is ambidextrous when finishing at the basket. That said, he’ll need to showcase the ability to change speeds in the half court.

Video: Catch and Shoot

— He is a capable catch and shoot player, albeit in a small sample size (11-for-24 on the season, per Synergy). He’s only attempted 28 3′s on the season, which is frankly not adequate for an upperclassman with NBA hopes. Developing a 3-point shot is paramount for his NBA prospects.

Video: Shooting off the Dribble

— Saunders gathers himself to rise off the dribble. A large portion of his shots (21%) are in the pick and roll, and 56% of his pick and roll attempts are pull-up jumpers. Saunders is skilled, yet still developing, his off the dribble shooting.

Video: Defense (containing penetration)

— Saunders has quick hands and good anticipatory instincts on defense, but I’m not sure if he’s quick enough laterally to defend NBA-level competition.

2. Alex Rosenberg — PF, 6-7, 215
Junior, 22 years old

*Rosenberg played one season of postgraduate basketball at The Peddle School (NJ).

Season (28 mpg): 15 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.2 APG
46% FG, 46% three-point

Game: 34 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals
10-17 FG, 4-6 three-point

Outlook: Rosenberg led Columbia, scoring a career-high 34 points including key free throws in regulation and overtime. At 6-7, he is a power forward with terrific range on his jump shot. He is Columbia’s best offensive player, and he’s very important to his team’s success, as his 4.1 win shares lead the Ivy League.

Rosenberg is most effective as a floor spacing shooter. He primarily sets up on the perimeter, where he can get a clean look over the top of the defense, or take bigger/slower defenders off the dribble. This season, 75 of his 216 attempts (35%) have been 3-pointers. In terms of shooting, he’s most effective with his feet set, shooting 48% on catch and shoot attempts this season. Rosenberg can curl around a screen or flair out for a quick attempt.

Although he’s a good shooter, Rosenberg is not nearly as effective in the paint. He occasionally flashed a face-up game (mostly jump shots) vs. Harvard, but he hardly scores with his back to the basket. In fact, only 3% of his attempts this season have been direct post ups. Through watching film of Rosenberg vs. St. John’s earlier this year, it’s obvious he struggles to score against length and athleticism. He lacks vertical athleticism, which often results in Rosenberg getting his shot blocked. Furthermore, Rosenberg has a tendency to scoop the ball underhand when driving. He inexplicably attempted four underhand layups vs. Harvard (by my count).

Also, I’m not sure where Rosenberg fits defensively. He’s too skinny to defend post players, and lacks the speed and athleticism to defend the perimeter. Rosenberg struggled to defend Harvard combo forward Steve Moundou-Missi, who finished with 22 points.

Going forward, Rosenberg must develop an interior game, and also adapt a more physical mindset. He needs to bulk up to play in the paint, instead of just moseying around the perimeter. Playing inside will position Rosenberg to compete for more rebounds. Overall, Rosenberg is a good shooter, but has a few areas to improve in. If he rounds out his game over the next 12 months, we can maybe revisit down the line.

Video: 3-Point Shooting

– Mostly catch and shoot.

Video: Around the Basket

Quick first step, but often finishes underhand.

Video: Post Struggles

Next Tier

3. Siyani Chambers — PG, 6-0, 170
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (35 mpg): 11 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.3 SPG

Game: 22 points, 0 assists
5-9 FG

Outlook: Chambers converted several difficult shots vs. Columbia, but from my perspective, his stat line misrepresents his actual ability. I don’t mean to denigrate Chambers, but he must adapt and vastly improve his game to become a viable NBA prospect.

Chambers is Harvard’s starting point guard and floor general. He possesses good feel for the game, capable of setting the tempo and initiating Harvard’s offensive actions. He’s accurate on his passes, both into the paint or moving the ball on the perimeter. Chambers can shoot when given space, particularly in catch and shoot, where he’s shooting 45%. More than anything else, though, Chambers plays with moxie, often converting shots in the clutch and elevating the play of his teammates.

That said, Chambers struggles in various aspects. At 6-feet, he lacks the quickness, length (6-1 wingspan) and vertical athleticism to finish at the basket. In fact, 87% of his attempts this season are jump shots, while only 12.5% are in the paint. He struggles to penetrate due to a lack of quickness, and if he does manage to penetrate, he really struggles to finish. He’s shooting 25% on only 16 attempts around the basket, and his inability to finish is apparent in person and on film. Chambers is also overly reliant on his strong hand (left), to the point he’ll spurn an open right-handed layup for a contested left-handed attempt.

Furthermore, Chambers lacks consistency on his jumper (38%), and is shooting 40% on from deep. He has poor lift on his shot, and lacks the necessary quickness to create space for himself in the half court. He’s crafty with the ball, but right now, he can’t create space in the half court.

I will admit that Chambers sticks to his strengths and doesn’t force it. But that doesn’t remedy his shortcomings. Lack of size, speed and vertical athleticism are a lot to overcome, especially defensively. I don’t see how Chambers can guard point guards at the next level.

At only 20 years old, Chambers has the natural talent to keep improving, but it will be difficult for him to reach an NBA level. He should start by perfecting his shooting, developing his right hand, and adding a floater.

Smart player, but in my opinion, his physical limitations are too much to overcome.

Video: Transition Struggles

— Chambers is posting a below average .79 points per transition attempt. His athletic shortcomings are apparent, to the point he often pulls up for a jumper instead of driving to the rim.

Video: Finishing struggles

Video: Assists

— Chambers had zero assists vs. Columbia, but he’s averaging 4 assists per game this season. However, I’m not able to glean specific attributes or tendencies from the film below. He is a good passer and can facilitate movement, but I don’t see anything worth nothing.

Video: Shooting (makes, misses)

— 87% of Chambers’ attempts are jump shots, converting 38%. He can change speeds to freeze the defense, and then quickly pull-up for a jumper. This is his most effective way of creating space in the half court.

Video: Defense (getting beat)

4. Maodo Lo — G, 6-3, 180
Sophomore

Season (32 mpg): 14 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.7 APG

Game: 20 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds
5-17 FG, 2-9 three-point

Outlook: Lo is one of the smoothest guards in the Ivy League. He’s equipped with a quick crossover and first step to get in the lane and score. Lo is right handed, yet is equally capable of finishing with his left hand. He is smooth off the dribble, and constantly moving off the ball, which keeps in position to attack.

Smooth athlete with the ability to “glide.” He can create in isolation or the pick and roll, where he turns the corner with a burst through the lane. Lo can also shoot from 3, as he’s shooting 45% on five 3-point attempts per game.

Lo has developed nicely this year, and could be a top-tier shooting guard in the Ivy League next season. The next step is improving his mid-range game, as well his passing—he gets into the paint with such ease that you’d expect him to average more than 1.7 assists.

Video: Isolation

— Quick first step, can occasionally pull up for a jumper. I’m not sure what kind of athlete Lo is, but the ball handling and separation ability are present.

Video: Shooting

— Shooting 46% on all jump shots, as well as from 3-point range. He can shoot with his feet set (48%), off the dribble (41%), or running off screens (40%).

Video: Pick and Roll

— Lo plants his pivot foot and changes direction with ease. This change of pace is very effective, to create space and zip through the lane.

5. Steve Moundou-Missi — PF, 6-7, 225
Junior, 22 years old

Season (24.3 mpg): 9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG
50% FG on 6.7 attempts

Game: 22 points, 8 rebounds
7-13 FG, 8-10 FT

Outlook: Missi is a bouncy and explosive power forward with great activity around the basket. He’s nimble on his feet in the high post, quickly rolling off screens towards the basket. In the low post, he’s showcased an improving back to the basket game, finishing with turn-around jumpers and hook shots. Missi impacts the game with his energy, athleticism and activity in the paint. He occasionally creates his own shot, but most of his baskets come off angles, cuts and drop offs. 30% of his attempts are post ups (43% FG), while 22% are cuts (60% FG).

Going forward, Missi needs to get stronger in order to maximize his natural physicality. He also needs to improve his jump shot, because at 6-7 and with quick feet, he has good pick and pop potential. Per Synergy, only 21% of Missi’s attempts this season are jumpers (35% FG), while 77% are from the interior (49% FG). If he develops a shot, he could average 15-and-10 with increased minutes.

Missi did a solid job defending Columbia, though I honestly couldn’t glean much. He’s athletic, but I’m still not sure what position he’s best suited to guard. He’s physical, fast, and has a nose for the ball defensively.

Overall, Missi is a physical and athletic forward who just needs to keep on working. The next step in his development is refining his shot, adding some muscle and staying consistent with his interior touch. If he does, he could be an all-League player next season.

Video: Crashing Boards

Video: Around the Basket / Post Up

Video: Jump Shooting (9-26 this season)

(makes)

(misses)

6. Laurent Rivard — SG, 6-4, 215
Senior, 23 years old

Season (34 mpg): 9.7 PPG, 3 RPG
137 of 153 shots are 3′s; 40%

Game: 10 points, 5 rebounds
3-11 FG, 3-10 three-point

Outlook: Rivard is Harvard’s 3-point specialist (137 of his 153 attempts this season are 3′s). He has total autonomy in the offense, free—and possibly encouraged—to shot whenever he wants.

But he didn’t look great vs. Columbia. His lack of length, athleticism and ball handling make him one-dimensional, and he often jacks up unnecessary 3-pointers. As mentioned, 90% of his attempts are 3-pointers, but more than 60% of those attempts are catch and shoot. Rivard has difficulty creating his own shot, and frankly hasn’t been that efficient behind the arc this season.

He’s a skilled shooter, but he’s scrawny, slow off the ball, limited offensively (doesn’t even run off screens well), and too small defensively. Good college player, but I don’t see Rivard cracking an NBA rotation.

Video: 3′s Made

Video: 3′s Missed

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft (I could not find Wesley Saunders and Maodo Lo’s date of birth)

Full box score

Opposition Report: Memphis Tigers

Opposition Report: Memphis Tigers

Saturday, February 15, 12 p.m. EST

Record
OVERALL: 19-5
CONFERENCE: 8-3
HOME: 12-2
ROAD: 4-2
NEUTRAL: 3-1

Offense: 1.1 points per possession (68th)
Defense: .96 points allowed per possession (43rd)

Memphis average possession: 15.8 seconds (18th fastest)
UConn average possession: 18 seconds (180th)

— Memphis forces 16 turnovers per game; UConn committing 11 turnovers per game.

22.4% turnover percentage, 14th best in country.

UConn

Point Distribution: 49% 2-Pointers | 29% 3-Pointers | 22% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 55% Jump Shots | 33% Around Basket | 6% Post-Ups | 6% Runner

83% Half Court; 17% Transition

98% man defense; 2% zone

Memphis

Point Distribution: 59% 2-Pointers | 20% 3-Pointers | 21% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 43% Jump Shots | 40% Around Basket | 11% Post-Ups | 6% Runner

76% Half-Court; 24% Transition

91% man defense; 9% zone

THE OPPONENT

Memphis enters this game coming off a home win vs. Central Florida and going 7-1 since playing UConn. Memphis will only want to play 8 guys and cannot afford for their main guys to get in foul trouble. They have one of the fastest tempos (55th) and shortest average possessions (18th) in the country. Stacked with quick guards and explosive forwards, Memphis wants to get in transition for easy dunks and rhythm 3-pointers. They immediately start the break following a missed shot or turnover (14th best turnover% in country).

Point guard Joe Jackson is Memphis’ primary play starter. He is a gifted playmaker capable of scoring and distributing, and he sets the tempo for them. On the wings are seniors Chris Crawford and Geron Johnson; Crawford is a knockdown 3-point shooter, while Johnson is one of the most explosive drivers in the conference. On the interior are Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols. Goodwin is mobile and explosive in the open court, with great activity on the glass. Nichols is effective on the block—he establishes good post position, and is efficient at the basket. Overall, though, Memphis is shooting only 33% from 3-point. Most of their baskets come around the basket or in transition, looking to push the tempo. Only Crawford and Michael Dixon Jr are reliable shooters.

Defensively, Memphis plays a trapping full-court press, as well as mixing man and zone schemes. UConn is a better all-around team, but if they are not careful with the ball, Memphis can run away with the game. UConn’s must control the tempo on offense, and get back on defense to prevent easy buckets in transition.

KEYS TO WIN

— Be disciplined on offense and defense! (Memphis’ 22.4% turnover percentage is 14th best in country)
— Can’t over help on Joe Jackson; trap his pick and rolls
— Close out on Chris Crawford (shooting 40% from 3, be there on catch!)
— Close out driving lanes (they have powerful drivers)
— Attack offensive glass
— No 2nd chances on offense for them; Goodwin, Johnson and Nick King are tenacious on the glass
— Can’t give them easy points in transition; can’t allow them free buckets off turnovers and bad shots

STARTERS/RESERVES:

PG — Joe Jackson (6-1)
SG — Chris Crawford (6-4)
SF — Geron Johnson (6-3)
PF — Shaq Goodwin (6-8)
C — Austin Nichols (6-10)

Reserves
G — Michael Dixon Jr (6-1)
F — Nick King (6-7,)
F — David Pellom (6-7)

—

STARTERS

Joe Jackson (SR) — 14.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2 SPG
PG, 6-1, 175

— Athletic point guard that pushes the tempo and can finish in transition
— Runs a lot of pick and roll (finds crease then attacks; pulls-up 50% of time, penetrates 37% of time)
— Excellent anticipation and length on defense (3.5% steal percentage; 89th nationally)
— Solid mid-range game (42%)
— Capable but not consistent from 3-point (30%)

Strengths

Transition (fast and explosive)

Pick and Roll

Pick and Roll Pull-Up Jumper (50% of the time)

Pick and Roll Penetration (37% of the time)

Court Vision

Strong Driver in Either Direction

Right

Left

Mid-Range Jumper

Vulnerable

3-Point Misses

Chris Crawford (SR) — 9 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 APG
SG, 6-4, 220

— 3pt shooter! 131 of 184 shots are 3′s, shooting 40% from 3. Be there on catch
— Better catch and shoot (68% of attempts; shooting 43%)
— Struggles shooting off the dribble (11% of attempts; shooting 14%)
— Only 12% of shots in the paint; capable finisher but mostly a shooter

Strengths

Catch and Shoot

Vulnerable

Off the Dribble

Around the Basket (16 attempts)

Geron Johnson (SR) — 9 PPG, 5 RPG, 4 APG
SF, 6-3, 210

— Explosive finisher with strong frame
— Active on offensive glass; must put a body on him
— Shooting 58% around the basket; shooting 26% on jump shots
— Good handle to get in the lane

Strengths

Explosive Finisher

Activity and Energy

Vulnerable

Poor Shooting

Austin Nichols (FR) — 8 PPG, 4 RPG, 1 BPG
PF, 6-8, 210

— Mobile big man who runs the floor and finishes at the rim
— Establishes post position. Seals defender very well.
— 90% of attempts around the basket, shooting 55% there
— Keeps the ball high in the post; good hook shot; sound footwork
— Improving rapidly; bound for a breakout game soon

Strengths

Posting Up

Video: 18 points vs. Rutgers (8-9 FG)

Vulnerable

Limited range

Shaquille Goodwin (SO) — 12.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.7 BPG
PF, 6-9, 240

— Explosive forward who can play in high or low post
— 90% of shot attempts are in the paint
— Mobile in transition; can run the wings or trail behind
— Improving shooter out to 12-feet
— Tenacious for put-backs and hustle plays
— Alley-oop target in half court

Strengths

Put-Backs

Transition (explosive)

Explosive in transition… runs right wing most of the time … bouncy, runs the floor.

Cutting

Around the Basket (tenacity and second effort)

Vulnerable

Pick and Pop Struggles

RESERVES

Michael Dixon Jr (SR) — 11.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.5 APG
G, 6-1, 200

— Shooter! 70% of attempts are jump shots
— 43% on all jump shots; capable from 3 (38%)
— Can shoot with feet set or off the dribble
— Graduate transfer from Missouri

Strengths

Shooting

Nick King (FR) — 5 PPG, 3.3 RPG
F, 6-7, 220

— Slasher who scores on drop offs, angles, and put-backs
— Can’t let him outwork you, not super skilled
— Not a shooter; good finishing in paint
— 32% of attempts are cuts (converting 60% of cuts)
— Good length to contest shots (opponents shooting 24% on jumpers)

Strengths

Finishing/Cutting

Crashing Boards

Contesting Jumpshots (length)

Vulnerable

Poor Jumpshot

David Pellom (SR) — 5 PPG, 3.5 RPG
F, 6-7, 225

— Athletic post player (96% of shots in paint)
— Active on offensive glass
— Another high-energy athlete, can’t let him outwork you
— 39% of attempts are cuts (converting 71% of cuts)

Strengths

Cutting/Around the Basket (96% of attempts)

Offensive Rebounds

Scouting Report: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas

Arkansas 77, Vanderbilt 75

February 8, 2014 | 3 p.m. CT | Memorial Gymnasium (Nashville, TN)

Arkansas 15-8, Vanderbilt 13-9

Recap: Michael Qualls converted a 3-pointer from the left wing with 4 seconds left to give Arkansas a 77-75 victory over Vanderbilt. In an effort to exploit Vandy’s lack of depth (only seven scholarship players), the Razorbacks pressed the entire game, and played 11 guys. Qualls scored a team-high 17 points, while Rashad Madden added 12 and Bobby Portis contributed 8 points and 5 rebounds. On the other side, despite getting outscored 40-2 in bench points, Vanderbilt seniors Rod Odom (22 points) and Kyle Fuller (20 points, 5 assists) kept it close. The win marked Arkansas’ first road win of the season, and furthermore, its first non-Auburn SEC road win under Mike Anderson.

NBA Prospects

1. Bobby Portis (FR, Arkansas): PF, 6-10, 240

2. Damian Jones (FR, Vanderbilt): PF/C, 6-10, 235

3. Michael Qualls (SO, Arkansas): SG, 6-6, 210

Next Tier

4. Rod Odom (SR, Vanderbilt): F, 6-9, 210

5. Kyle Fuller (SR, Vanderbilt): PG, 6-1, 188

6. Rashad Madden (JR, Arkansas): SG, 6-5, 180

–

NBA Prospects

1. Bobby Portis — PF, 6-10, 240
Freshman, 19 years old

Season (27 mpg): 13 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.3 APG
1 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 54% FG

Game: 8 pts, 5 rbs, 0 blks
3-8 FG, 1-1 three-point

Outlook: Portis did not stand out on this particular day. He clearly has NBA size and wingspan, and has a rare inside-outside feel for a power forward, but I think he needs another year to bring it all together. Offensively, he flows between the post and the perimeter, always on the move and creating mismatches with his size. He can score facing up in the high post, or step out and make the jumper. His low post game is still a work in progress, the foundation of which is a right handed hook shot that’s slowly coming along. Portis is an aggressive rebounder, a terrific athlete with a “wide trunk” to compete for boards.

Right now, though, Portis is merely a shell of his potential. To maximize his potential, he needs to become a more conscientious contributor inside. Solid face up game, but at 6-10, will need to develop at least one go-to move with his back facing the basket. To his credit, a few moves are in the works—right handed hook shot down low, jab-step jumper from the perimeter, strong rip-through from the triple threat position—but his consistency was fleeting. Portis is a guy you want to score, and then score again and again. He needs to develop a mean streak to become a force throughout the game.

Defensively, Portis uses his length and quick feet to defend inside-out.

Three nights after recording 35 points, 9 rebounds and 6 blocks vs. Alabama, Portis had a mediocre showing in Nashville. He needs to develop in the paint, and adopt a permanent mean streak. If he does, Portis has tremendous upside as an NBA prospect.

Strengths (to be continued)
— NBA size (6-10; 7-foot wingspan)
— Versatile inside-outside game (33% of attempts are jump shots; 67% are from interior)
— High basketball IQ
— Quick first step
— Can pass out of post
— Can defend multiple positions

Defects/Areas of Improvement (to be continued)
— Skinny
— Awkward shooting form
— Not always aggressive/disappears for long stretches
— Struggles to maintain handle
— Unpolished back to the basket game

Video (#10)

5 points vs. Vandy

35 points vs. Alabama

3-8 vs. Vandy (misses)

Defending (small snippet)

2. Damian Jones — PF/C, 6-10, 235
Freshman, 18 years old

Season (24 mpg): 11 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 3 Fouls

Game: 12 pts, 7 rbs, 2 blks
4-6 FG

Outlook: A late bloomer on the high school circuit last season, Jones is a fast-improving big man with speed, agility, and next-level athleticism. At 6-10, he is a human trampoline in the half court, with the ability to seal his man or receive a drop off and quickly rise for a dunk. He has a soft jump hook in the post, can seal his man on the glass, and is athletic as hell.

An engineering major who boasted a 4.0 GPA in high school, Jones is a smart player who has a chance to become one of the best big men in the SEC. He needs to improve his free throw shooting (53% on 4 attempts per game), and add at least 25 pounds, but his combination of shot blocking, athleticism for his size, and touch in the paint are a foundation for a very high ceiling.

From playing third fiddle to Julius Randle (Kentucky) and Matt Jones (Duke) on the Texas Titans, to cementing himself as the future of Vanderbilt, Jones is getting better in a hurry. Mobile, athletic, and a developing post game. If his interior game continues to develop, Jones will become an NBA prospect soon enough.

Video (#30)

12 points vs. Arkansas

Contesting shots (small snippet)

3. Michael Qualls — SG, 6-5, 210
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (25 mpg): 11.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.4 APG
42% FG, 35% 3-Pointer

Game: 17 pts, 3 ast
5-10 FG, 3-5 three-point

Outlook: One of the more underrated shooting guards in the country, Qualls is flourishing in Arkansas’ uptempo system. He has quick hands defensively, is an explosive leaper, and makes plays in transition. Offensively, he’s more skilled than I thought. His January struggles notwithstanding (20-80 FG), Qualls is a reliable spot up shooter (1.1 points per attempt), with a excellent first step to get into the lane. He’s “live and active” on both sides of the ball, and most importantly, he delivers in crucial moments (game-winner vs. Kentucky, game-winner vs. Vanderbilt, etc).

If he can refine his perimeter skills to become a more efficient scorer, Qualls should get Draft consideration. He shoots, jumps, defends and rebounds at a high level, with significant upside in all areas.

Video (#24)

17 points vs. Vandy

5-10 vs. Vandy (misses)

3 assists vs. Vandy

Next Tier

4. Rod Odom — F, 6-9, 210
Senior, 22 years old

Season (36 mpg): 15.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.1 APG

Game: 22 pts, 3 rbs, 1 ast, 5 to
8-14 FG, 3-7 three-point

Outlook: Odom is a skinny 6-9 forward who primarily plays on the perimeter. He’s shooting 44% on nearly seven 3-pointers per game. He has an awkward shooting form, releasing the ball just above his hip, but he makes it work.

While he can shoot, I didn’t like how Odom strayed to the perimeter the entire game—it almost felt like he was wasting his size. He can shoot, but Odom struggles to handle the ball against pressure; he panicked vs. Arkansas’ press, committing five easily-avoidable turnovers. Not a good look for a senior.

He’s also paper thin, at 210 pounds. Perhaps Odom could carve out a role as a pick and pop stretch-forward, but I don’t see it. Too weak, and not enough ball skills. He can’t attempt seven 3′s a game at the next level.

Video

22 points vs. Arkansas

Video: 8-14 vs. Arkansas (misses)

Video: 5 turnovers vs. Arkansas

5. Kyle Fuller — PG, 6-1, 188
Senior, 22 years old

Season (32 mpg): 11.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.4 APG , 3 TO

Game: 20 pts, 5 ast, 3 to
5-13 FG, 8-13 FT

Outlook: Fuller is the driving force and heartbeat of this Vandy team. His strong frame and tight handle—specifically a swift two-way crossover—repelled Arkansas’ pressure all game long. Fuller is not a natural scorer; instead, his production is a result of toughness and chipping away on every possession. Good handle and pace, can get into the paint and distribute. Fuller is as durable as any player in college basketball—he’s played 383 of a possible 400 minutes in 10 SEC games.

But he’s only 6-1, and lacks the athleticism and lateral quickness to defend at a high level. Admirable competitor, but will struggle to make plays at the next level.

Video

20 points vs. Arkansas

Video: 5-13 vs. Arkansas (misses)

Video: Contact Drawn (8-13 FT)

Video: 5 assists vs. Arkansas

6. Rashad Madden — SG, 6-5, 180
Junior, 22 years old

Season (25 mpg): 12.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 49% FG

Game: 12 pts, 2 rbs, 3 ast
5-7 FG

Outlook: Madden is versatile in the backcourt with the ability to play point guard, or also off the ball. He entered college as a drive-first player, but has developed into a solid 3-point shooter (44% on 4 attempts per game) who can facilitate off the bounce. He pushes the ball in the open floor, with the ability to pull-up for a jumper or finish over smaller defenders.

Defensively, he can apply pressure, though he’s not exceptional in this regard. Kind of stuck defensively, with average foot speed and length.

Overall, Madden is a smooth guard who can score in variety of ways. But he appears to be a step too slow, lacks an identity offensively (he’s good-but-not-great across the board), and struggles through contact. Madden is a reliable scorer and a main cog in Arkansas’ attack, but he doesn’t distinguish himself in any facet of the game. I don’t see it.

Video

12 points vs. Vandy

2 turnovers vs. Vandy

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full box score

Scouting Report: New Mexico vs. Wyoming

New Mexico 66, Wyoming 61 (OT)

February 5, 2014 | 9 p.m. MT | The Pit (Albuquerque, NM)

New Mexico 18-4, Wyoming 14-8

Practice notes from Tuesday, Feb 4, can be found here.

Recap: In a game that featured nine ties and 23 lead changes, New Mexico outlasted Wyoming in overtime, 66-61. Lobos forward Cameron Bairstow—who posted 23 points and 11 rebounds—hit a game-tying layup with 35 seconds left in regulation to force OT. Alex Kirk contributed 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Kendall Williams scored 13 points on 2-13 shooting. Riley Grabau led Wyoming with 12 points, while three players—Larry Nance Jr., Charles Hankerson Jr. and Nathan Sobey—scored 10 a piece. It’s always close when these two teams play; according to New Mexico’s sports information director, the Lobos lead the all time series, 66-64.

*Wyoming sophomore Josh Adams, who leads the Cowboys in assists (3 APG) and is second in scoring (11.8 PPG), was suspended after striking a Utah State player last Saturday, Feb 1.

NBA Prospects

1. Cameron Bairstow (SR): PF, 6-9, 250

2. Alex Kirk (JR): C, 7-0, 250

3a. Larry Nance Jr. (JR, Wyoming): SF/PF, 6-8, 225

3b. Kendall Williams (SR): G, 6-4, 180

Next Tier

5. Cullen Neal (FR): PG, 6-4, 186

6. Obij Aget (FR): C, 7-0, 220

7. Derek Cooke Jr. (JR, Wyoming): PF, 6-9, 220

8. Deshawn Delaney (JR): SG, 6-5, 190

9. Hugh Greenwood (JR): G, 6-3, 205

10. Nathan Sobey (SR, Wyoming): PG, 6-3, 185

11. Riley Grabau (JR, Wyoming): G, 6-2, 175

–

NBA Prospects

1. Cameron Bairstow — PF, 6-9, 250
Senior, 23 years old

Season (32 mpg): 20 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.8 APG
56% FG, 62% true shooting percentage

Game: 23 pts, 11 rbs
8-14 FG, 7-11 FT

Outlook: Bairstow was the best player on the court. Using world-class strength, he punished Wyoming’s frontline to the tune of 23 points and 11 rebounds on 57% shooting. He established position in the paint, maintained a high motor, and pounded away until Wyoming eventually gave up.

Offensively, he displayed a soft touch on jump hooks in the paint, made several elbow jumpers, and cleaned up two put-back dunks. He’s also an underrated passer, capable of distributing from the high or low post, or passing out of traps.

Bairstow’s most apparent weakness was the inability to explode off the ground. It often seemed like he exerted all his energy just to elevate; like jumping doesn’t come naturally to him. Larry Nance and Derek Cooke rejected Bairstow with ease. Bairstow compensates with a muscular frame and high motor, but it makes you wonder if this will fly in the NBA.

Defensively, Bairstow maintains position in the low post, but his average athleticism and wingspan make it difficult to contest shots. Additionally, he’s appears to stay upright in his stance, allowing quicker/more athletic forwards to blow by him on the perimeter. This is problematic. He needs to stay upright in his stance to defend out to 18-feet.

Bairstow continues to add skill to his NBA frame, and has been a reliable contributor all season. Going forward, I’d like to see him finish with his left hand more often. During practice Tuesday and the game Wednesday, he clearly favored his right hand. Even if he would drive left, he’d inexplicably force a reverse layup on the right side. Per Synergy, Bairstow drives right 58% of the time in isolation situations, and drives left 26% of the time (he rises for a jump shot 16%). He’s not necessarily averse to going left, but he is averse to finishing with his left hand.

Overall, based on the eye test, Bairstow had a strong frame, was capable from mid-range (62% shooting; 1.24 PPP on the year), has a soft touch around the rim and a high motor. Not very explosive or athletic, but he’s capable on both sides of the ball. If nothing else, his professional approach and attitude are a boon to any program. He sort of reminds me of Luis Scola.

Strengths
— Very strong and powerful
— Tireless work ethic
— Efficient scorer (56% FG, 62% true shooting percentage)
— Improving mid-range jumper (62% on 29 attempts; 1.2 PPP; pick and pop potential)
— Soft touch to finish around the basket (converting 57% around the basket, 61% post up)
— Uses strength to position for rebounds; natural physicality
— Skilled passer in the post, out of traps
— Proven development

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Average athlete and wingspan (poor lift? – NBA combine will reveal)
— Slow foot speed (Quick and athletic forwards take him off the bounce)
— Avoids finishing with left hand
— 23 years old (has he peaked?)

Video

Poor Lift?

Not Bad Lift …

Points vs. Wyoming

Offensive Rebounds (recent)

Passing (out of traps, in of the post)

Mid-Range Jump Shots

Slow Feet?

2. Alex Kirk — C, 7-0, 250
Junior, 22 years old

Season (32 mpg): 14 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.8 BPG

Game: 15 pts, 10 rbs, 2 stl
7-11 FG, 1-1 FT

Outlook: Kirk posted a double-double and on an efficient 64%. But he failed to establish a rhythm, attempting only two shots in 13 first-half minutes.

Nevertheless, he flashed glimpses of NBA potential. Standing at 7-feet tall, Kirk has a versatile game, with power down low and range to 18-feet. He produced from the paint and perimeter vs. Wyoming—power and touch at the basket, and a catch-and-shoot machine from the high post. The threat of his jump shot pays dividends for New Mexico, because Kirk stretches the defense and creates space for his teammates. I need to watch more film to understand his defense, but offensively he’s more skilled than most 7-footers. Kirk could enter the draft after this season, or stay for his redshirt senior year, when he’ll be the focal point of New Mexico’s offense.

Strengths
— True 7-footer
— Adequate rebounder
— Range (effective shooter inside 3-point line; only making 19% of 3-pointers, though)
— Mobile in transition
— Explosive from stand-still position (not particularly explosive off the dribble)
— Skilled in low post (shooting 70% around the basket, per Synergy)
— Pick-and-Pop Potential

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Has range, but poor 3-point shooter
— Unproven defender (in my opinion)
— Not very physical on either side of the ball (how will he fit as a 7-footer?; is there such a thing as a “stretch 7-footer?”)
— Underwent back surgery, which led to redshirt sophomore year

Video

Points vs. Wyoming

Crashing Boards (recent)

Nance Blocks Kirk

3a. Larry Nance Jr. — SF/PF, 6-8, 225
Junior, 21 years old

Season (34.6 mpg): 16 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 APG, 2 BPG
54% FG, 27% 3-point (1.5 attempts per game)

Game: 10 pts, 5 rbs, 4 blks
4-13 FG, 2-2 FT

Outlook: Nance is a slender and extremely athletic stretch-forward. Not a great jump shooter, Nance is most effective driving the lane for an aerial jaunt towards the basket. Big hands, long arms, and explosive jumping ability. He can drive to the hoop in the half court, or lead the break and finish in transition.

He’s terrific attacking the rim and straight-line finishing, but Nance struggles away from the basket. He displayed poor shooting form, and according to Synergy, he’s shooting a horrid 25% on 69 jumpshot attempts this season.

Frankly, his offensive game is predicated on energy and points around the basket. He often scores on drop offs or quick cuts in the half-court, but his range is limited and I wonder how he’d fit within the constraints of an NBA offense. Defensively, Nance has long arms to contest shots, but at 225 pounds, he will struggle to defend post players in the NBA.

Overall, he hasn’t been able to add skill or polish to his athletic gifts. He’s aggressive, which is good, but he needs to develop some sort of shot.

Strengths
— NBA athlete
— Finishes through contact
— Stretch-forward potential (if he can develop jump shot)
— Defends bigger than his size
— Excellent timing on blocks
— High motor (despite skinny build)

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Shooting 25% on jump shots (poor form)
— Defends big men in college (needs to defend wing players in NBA — does he possess requisite foot speed?)
— Average touch around the basket (overly reliant on athleticism)
— Just feels like something is missing (vague/ambiguous observation, but a visceral feeling that something is missing)

Video

Nance blocks Kirk, Bairstow

10 points vs. New Mexico

4-13 vs. New Mexico (misses)

3b. Kendall Williams — G, 6-4, 180
Senior, 22 years old

Season (35 mpg): 17.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.3 RPG, 2 SPG
29% assist rate; 95th nationally

Game: 13 pts, 4 rbs, 0 ast
2-13 FG, 0-6 three-point, 9-12 FT

Outlook: Williams had one of his worst performances this season. He was overly passive early on, and was imprudent/forceful late in the game. I’m not sure if he was told to play a certain way, but the result was a 2-for-13 performance, including his first zero-assist game this season.

Williams is a “rhythm player”, and he couldn’t find his groove on this particular day. If you put this performance in a bubble, you’d think Williams is not an NBA prospect. But obviously, being the reigning Mountain West POY, he’s a proven commodity in college basketball.

Through observing him over the last two years, his makeup as an NBA prospect is clear. Here’s what I wrote following Tuesday’s practice, slightly modified:

“A wiry combo guard with excellent speed and a good first step. Due to his speed, it’s difficult to keep him out of the lane. He can score in a variety of ways in the lane, changing direction in the paint and using either hand to finish at the rim. Good body control and speed in the paint. He’s also showcased a mid- and long-range jumper, though not with consistency.

Williams can play on or off the ball. In transition, he can push the ball or run the wings; in the half court, he can run the pick-and-roll, or use off-ball screens to free himself. He’s a dynamic weapon on the college level, as he can go for 46 points one game, then 17-and-10 the next.

However, at 6-4 and 180 pounds, Williams is a tweener. He lacks the requisite foot speed and strength to defend NBA shooting guards. Too slow laterally, and too small physically.

If he’s going to make it, it’ll be as a point guard. But Williams played off the ball against Wyoming. His jump shot, which has been hit or miss throughout his career, was out of sync—and frankly a disservice—on this day.”

Strengths
— Excellent first step to get in the paint
— Capable finisher with both hands
— Draws contact (8.3 FTA)
— Second burst “turning the corner” on screens
— Can play on-or-off ball
— Good hands defensively (2 SPG)
— Gifted scorer when feeling it

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Has makeup of PG, not SG (6-4, 180; needs to make full transition)
— Can he make plays for teammates at the NBA level?
— Can he finish over NBA size?
— Skinny, arguably weak
— Often turns back against pressure; not a great one-on-one player

Video

2-13 FG vs. Wyoming

Drawing contact vs. Wyoming (9-12 FT)

Next Tier

5. Cullen Neal — PG, 6-4, 186
Freshman, 20 years old

Season (21 mpg): 8 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG

Game: 5 pts, 4 rbs
2-5 FG, 4 fouls in 17 min

Outlook: Cullen’s court vision and shooting off the dribble were apparent in the 17 minutes he played. He accurately placed long-range passes, and knocked down a 3-pointer from NBA range. He plays with contagious energy and emotion, and should play an integral role as early as next season. Quite honestly, New Mexico’s offense was more fluid with Cullen on the floor and Kendall Williams on the bench; not a knock against Kendall, but Cullen’s playmaking skills facilitated crisp ball movement and got the bigs involved.

Strengths
— Size for position (6-4 PG)
— Court vision and passing instincts (can pass with both hands, takes pride in distributing)
— Can shoot off the dribble, with range
— Developing as a floor general (projects to be New Mexico’s point guard for next three years)
— Can play on or off ball

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Skinny frame
— Stays high defensively
— Average athlete (can he finish over bigger players?)
— Keeps dribble high
— Small sample size (can’t make any definitive assertions right now)

Video

5 points vs. Wyoming

2 assists vs. Wyoming

6. Obij Aget — C, 7-0, 220
Freshman, 21 years old

*Aget originally signed for the 2012-13 season, but he tore his ACL and did not enroll in the fall of 2012, thereby not starting his eligibility clock.

Season (7.5 mpg): 1.5 PPG, 2 RPG, 0.3 BPG

Game: 0 pts, 0 rbs (3 min)

Outlook: Entered the game, got called for a travel, exited game. Notes from practice:

“Right now, Aget is as raw as they come.

Strengths
— 7-footer with a 6-10 (estimated) wingspan
— Tries to dunk everything inside the foul line
— Decent timing on blocks

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— No offensive moves
— As raw as they come (raw dribbling, passing, moving his feet, blocking shots)
— Stick skinny (only 220 pounds!)
— Already 21 years old

Aget has good size and athleticism for a PF/C, but he is very raw right now. In other words, the first observation anyone would have is that he’s still learning the fundamentals of playing basketball.

He can dunk the ball from a standing position, but clearly struggles to put the ball on the floor. Defensively, he’s a work in progress as well. During practice, Coach Neal lamented Aget’s inability to cover ground in the zone. He works hard and loves playing basketball, but right now there’s no semblance of skill present.”

7. Derek Cooke Jr. — PF, 6-9, 220
Junior, 22 years old

*Cooke spent two years at Cloud County (KS) Junior College before transferring to Wyoming in the summer of 2012.

Season (20 mpg): 5.3 PPG, 6 RPG
24.6% defensive rebounding percentage (43rd nationally)

Game: 9 pts, 6 rbs, 2 stl
4-9 FG

Outlook: A bouncy and agile forward who can make plays around the basket. He’s an athletic post player who plays hard—not super skilled, but can be effective if he outworks you. Per Synergy, 95% of Cooke’s shot attempts this season are around the basket, while only 1.6% are jump shots. Cooke, who didn’t even play high school basketball, scores on drop offs, angles, and put-backs. An ancillary cog as a high-energy, athletic post player. Solid on the college level, but not skilled enough to play in the NBA.

Strengths
— Athletic post player; plays hard
— Explosive and agile in open court
— 36% of baskets are on cuts; finishing 70% of cuts
— 25% defensive rebounding percentage (43rd nationally)
— Active and alert for put-backs and dunks

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Not skilled in half court
— Can’t go left
— Can’t put the ball on the floor
— Only 220 pounds

Video

9 points vs. New Mexico

4-9 vs. New Mexico (misses)

8. Deshawn Delaney — SG, 6-5, 190
Junior, 21 years old

*Delaney spent two years at Vincennes (IN) Junior College before enrolling at New Mexico in the summer of 2013.

Season (17 mpg): 4.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG

Game: 2 pts, 5 rbs, 4 ast
1-3 FG

Outlook: Delaney has good size, length and athleticism for a shooting guard. Moves his feet well on defense, and uses length to contest shots. Has good potential as a defender and rebounder, though he needs to add muscle to compete with stronger players. Right now, he gets most of points slashing to the hoop—usually he’ll receive the ball with forward momentum, take a dribble or two, and go up for a shot.

However, he struggles to put the ball on the floor. Delaney has a few tools to build upon, but he needs to develop his handle, and gain about 20 pounds. If his offensive game develops over the next eight months, we can revisit him as a fringe NBA prospect.

Strengths
— Long swingman, good athlete
— Effective cutter and slasher
— Capable defender
— Decent catch and shoot (14-33 this year (42%))

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Can’t put the ball on the floor
— 190 pounds
— Not skilled in half court

Video

4 assists vs. Wyoming

2 points vs. Wyoming

9. Hugh Greenwood — G, 6-3, 205
Junior, 22 years old

Season (31 mpg): 6 PPG, 5 RPG, 3 APG

Game: 8 pts, 4 rbs, 3 ast
3-5 FG, 2-2 FT

Outlook: Greenwood attempted only 5 shots vs. Wyoming, but with Kendall Williams playing poorly, he was a stabilizing force. Greenwood is a hybrid guard — he primarily plays point guard, but his main contributions are rebounding, and setting up the pass before the pass that leads to a bucket—in other words, he accumulates “hockey assists.” 82% of his attempts are jump shots, but again, Greenwood is not expected to score. He organizes the offense, protects the ball (4.2 assist to turnover ratio), comes up with a rebound, and make the correct “basketball play.” He lacks the athleticism/scoring/court vision/upside/defensive skills to play in the NBA, but he’s a winner and the “glue” holding New Mexico together.

Strengths
— Strong build
— Good rebounder
— High basketball IQ
— Good shooter (38% on jump shots)
— Proven leader

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Avoids driving in the lane (only 15 attempts in the paint)
— Doesn’t do anything particularly “well”
— Below the rim player

Video

8 points vs. Wyoming

3-5 vs. Wyoming (misses)

3 assists vs. Wyoming

10. Nathan Sobey — G, 6-3, 185
Senior, 23 years old

*Sobey played two years at Cochise College (AZ) before enrolling at Wyoming in the fall of 2012.

Season (28.5 mpg): 7.5 PPG, 3 RPG, 2 APG

Game: 10 pts, 4 rbs, 5 ast
5-9 FG

Outlook: In terms of athleticism relative to height, few rank ahead of Sobey. One of the most athletic guards in the Mountain West, Sobey is a veteran who looks to drive the ball. He’s inconsistent from the perimeter (22% from 3), but is capable finishing at the basket due to his athletic ability. He also displayed solid court vision on the pick and roll, hitting the screener at the perfect moment, though his 5 assists were a season-high.

Video

10 points vs. New Mexico

5 assists vs. New Mexico

11. Riley Grabau — G, 6-2, 175
Junior, 21 years old

Season (34.7 mpg): 11 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG

Game: 12 pts, 1 rbs, 1 ast
4-7 FG; 4 three-pointers

Outlook: Grabau is a combo guard, though he’s running the point the majority of the time this season. His best skill is shooting—116 of 157 shots this season (74%) are from 3. He can shoot off the bounce, off catch and shoot, or off of screens. Smooth scoring ability, including shots late in the clock.

Video: Four 3-pointers vs. New Mexico

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full box score

Practice Notes: New Mexico Lobos

Practice Report: New Mexico Lobos

Tuesday, February 4 | 3:30 p.m. MT | The Pit (Albuquerque, NM)

— Practice #74 of New Mexico’s season. It will host the University of Wyoming tomorrow at 9 p.m. MT. All players participated.

NBA Prospects

Alex Kirk (JR): C, 7-0, 250

Cameron Bairstow (SR): PF, 6-9, 250

Kendall Williams (SR): G, 6-4, 180

Next Tier

Cullen Neal (FR): PG, 6-4, 186

Obij Aget (FR): C, 7-0, 220

Hugh Greenwood (JR): G, 6-3, 205

Deshawn Delaney (JR): SG, 6-5, 190

—–

Alex Kirk — C, 7-0, 250
Junior, 22 years old

Season (32 mpg): 14 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.8 BPG

Notes: Kirk’s combination of size and shooting make him an intriguing prospect.

Kirk made shots from all three ranges in practice — interior, mid-range, and 3-point. He converted 9-of-10 threes in a shooting drill, scored facing up in the high post, and finished hook shots with either hand down low. He has a strong upper body which allows him to seal his man in the paint, and quick bounce off the floor to finish with a dunk. He’s quicker than I first realized, in terms of constantly moving without the ball and also leaving the ground. The threat of his jump shot pays dividends for his entire team, because Kirk stretches the defense and thus opens up the floor for his teammates.

Kirk had two dunks through traffic as well—he’s not an elite athlete, but he finishes above the rim when given space. Nice vision from the high post, and can pass out of double teams in the low post.

Defensively, Kirk moves his feet well, but I’m not sure how well because Kirk wasn’t challenged defensively in practice. I’m also curious to see Kirk’s shot blocking ability. On paper he’s an elite shot blocker, but he’s merely an average athlete, so I’m curious.

Good stuff overall. Kirk finished with power and touch at the basket, and was a catch-and-shoot machine from the high post. He could enter the draft after this season, or he could stay for his redshirt senior year, when he’ll be the focal point of New Mexico’s offense.

Cameron Bairstow — PF, 6-9, 250
Senior, 23 years old

Season (32 mpg): 20 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.8 APG

Notes: Bairstow has been one of the biggest “breakout” players in college basketball this season. He’s evolved from a solid power forward into one of the most productive and reliable big men in the entire nation.

Quick look:

2012-’13 (24 MPG): 9.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, .06 BPG, 45% FG
2013-’14 (32 MPG): 20 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 56% FG

Firstly, Coach Neal claims Bairstow is one of the hardest working kids ever to come through UNM. He said that after every home game, Bairstow immediately heads to the weight room for a post-game weightlifting session.

That work ethic has helped Bairstow improve every part of his game since last season, transforming a bevy of “good’ attributes into “near-elite” attributes. Offensively, his comfort zone is the mid- to-low post. He uses his strength to carve out space down low, where he can seal his man deep into the paint. Though not particularly skilled with his back to the basket, Bairstow can finish over either shoulder, and he gets to the line at a solid rate (7.4 fouls drawn per 40 minutes; 24th nationally). He is aggressive in the low post, intentionally trying to draw—and finish through—contact. He compensates for average athleticism with crafty finishes and a “punch first” physicality. Not many back to the basket moves, but his strength and tenacity allow him to set up anywhere he wants.

Bairstow is most dangerous facing up out of the post, where he can put the ball on the floor and attack the basket, as well as knock down a 15-footer. He’s square to the basket on his jump shot, has a high release point and a good follow-through. His form is a little awkward, as his off hand stays completely straight in the air through his shooting motion, but it works for him. Bairstow’s first option is facing up to either shoot from the high post or drive right and attack the basket. He also has pick-and-pop potential from the high post, as his strong frame is a good base for setting screens.

One observation I had today was that Bairstow forced the issue with his right hand. He often drove left only to force a reverse layup with his right hand. No good here.

Defensively, Bairstow is strong to maintain position in the low post, but his average athleticism and average wingspan make it difficult to contest shots.

He’s also slow on his feet in face-up situations, so quicker and more athletic forwards can get by him on the perimeter. This is problematic. Bairstow is strong, but improved foot speed will be the key defensively.

Overall, Bairstow has dominated the opposition this year, and it’s a credit to his work ethic. He can do it all on the college level—make a jump shot, get to the line, drive it right, pass out of traps, score from the low post. He’ll be 23 years old in June—and a part of me wonders if he’s already realized his ceiling—but Bairstow’s physical nature and polished interior skills make him worthy of NBA consideration. He sort of reminds me of Luis Scola.

Kendall Williams — G, 6-4, 180
Senior, 22 years old

Season (35 mpg): 17.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.3 RPG, 2 SPG

Notes: The reigning Mountain West player of the year, Williams is a wiry combo guard with excellent speed and a good first step. Due to his speed, it’s difficult to keep him out of the lane. He can score in a variety of ways in the lane, using either hand to finish at the rim. He’s also showcased a developing mid- and long-range jumper, though not with consistency.

But, at 6-4 and 180 pounds, Williams is a tweener. He lacks the lateral foot speed and the strength to defend NBA shooting guards. Too slow and too small to defend NBA shooting guards.

If he’s going to make it, it’ll be as a point guard. But—and to my disliking—Williams played off the ball in practice. His jump shot, which has been hit or miss throughout his career, was out of sync on this day. I enjoy his game, but quite frankly, he looked out of place on the college level, let alone within the context of the NBA.

One aspect he did excel in was his communication and leadership. Williams constantly communicated on the court, calling out screens and defensive assignments. Terrific leadership here.

Overall, Williams was solid—made a few jumpers, finished at the rim, changed direction in the lane—but nothing special. Maybe that’ll change in the game tomorrow.

Other Players

Cullen Neal — PG, 6-4, 186
Freshman, 20 years old

Season (21 mpg): 8 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG

Notes: Neal has excellent size for a point guard, though this season he’s playing off the ball alongside Kendall Williams and Hugh Greenwood.

Offensively, Neal best attributes are his court vision and jump shot. He can pass with either hand, with impeccable timing and the ability to thread the needle in traffic. In practice, he consistently threaded the needle on pick-and-rolls, hitting the rolling screener at the precise moment. Although he’s a freshman, Neal can already create his own shot off the dribble, using a quick release and good elevation to see over the defense.

Neal can lead the fast break, but right now he struggles to “run the offense” in the half court. He doesn’t always do the little things at full speed—for example, running full speed to receive a hand off, or re-posting the big man with a sense of urgency. His game is more freestyle than structured right now, preferring to break his man down then make a play. He also needs to tighten up his handle—he keeps the ball too high for too long. He must tighten his handle to maximize his passing skills.

Neal is leading New Mexico’s second unit this season. With good size, court vision and deep range, he should be the point guard of the Lobos for the foreseeable future. Under the tutelage of his father, his upside as a 17 point/10 assist point guard is promising.

Obij Aget — C, 7-0, 220
Freshman, 21 years old

Season (7.5 mpg): 1.5 PPG, 2 RPG, 0.3 BPG

*Aget originally signed for the 2012-13 season, but he tore his ACL and did not enroll in the fall of 2012, thereby not starting his eligibility clock.

Notes: Right now, Aget is as raw as they come.

Strengths
— 7-footer with a 6-10 (estimated) wingspan
— Tries to dunk everything inside the foul line
— Decent timing on blocks

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— No offensive moves
— As raw as they come (raw dribbling, passing, moving his feet, blocking shots)
— Stick skinny (only 220 pounds!)
— Already 21 years old

Hugh Greenwood — G, 6-3, 205
Junior, 22 years old

Season (31 mpg): 6 PPG, 5 RPG, 3 APG

Notes: Greenwood is the ultimate utility player. He doesn’t excel in any facet of the game (save for rebounding, maybe), but he has a high basketball IQ and won’t make many mistakes. You can count on him to set up the offense in the face of pressure, come up with a rebound when you need it, and make the correct “basketball play.” Greenwood has around 5 “hockey assists” every game. Not an NBA-caliber player, but he’s a winner and the “glue” holding New Mexico together.

Deshawn Delaney — SG, 6-5, 190
Junior, 21 years old

Season (17 mpg): 4.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG

A JuCo import from Vincennes (IN), Delaney is a good athlete with size and length for the position. He can attack the basket with powerful drives, but needs to improve his ball skills to initiate offense from the perimeter. He’s more of a cutter/slasher/energy player/athletic defender right now. He has the focus, speed and athleticism to be a terrific defender.

Delaney has a few tools to build upon, but he needs to develop his handle, and gain about 20 pounds. If his offensive game develops over the next eight months, we can revisit him as a fringe NBA prospect.

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Scouting Report: Seton Hall vs. Butler

Butler 64, Seton Hall 57

January 29, 2014 | 9 p.m. EST | Prudential Center (Newark, NJ)

Butler 12-9, Seton Hall 12-9

Recap: In a back and forth game featuring numerous lead changes, Butler went on a game-closing 7-0 run to defeat Seton Hall, 64-57. Bulldogs forward Khyle Marshall scored 13 points, while Kameron Woods contributed 11 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, and freshman Elijah Brown added 12 points. Both teams were near-identical in the box score, but the Bulldogs simply made more plays down the stretch. For Seton Hall, swingman Fuquan Edwin had 20 points—including 15 in the first half—to go along with 6 steals. But Edwin went 2-10 down the stretch, and although his team had several opportunities to secure the lead, the Pirates weren’t able to capitalize.

Previous Seton Hall Evaluations:

Evaluation 1
Evaluation 2

NBA Prospects

1. Fuquan Edwin (SR, Seton Hall): SG/SF, 6-6, 215

2. Kellen Dunham (SO, Butler): SG, 6-6, 185

3. Kameron Woods (JR, Butler): F, 6-9, 200

4. Elijah Brown (FR, Butler): G, 6-4, 185

5. Brandon Mobley (JR, Seton Hall): F, 6-9, 215

–

1. Fuquan Edwin — SG/SF, 6-6, 215
Senior, 22 years old

Season (29 mpg): 14.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3 SPG
39% three-point, 6.4% steal percentage (2nd nationally)

Game: 20 points, 3 rebounds, 6 steals
4-7 three-point

Strengths
— Shooting (catch and shoot, off screens, off the dribble)
— Size for position (6-7)
— On-ball defense/forcing steals

Areas of improvement
— Embracing contact
— Maintaining control of ball through the lane
— Finishing at rim
— Rebounding

Outlook: Edwin’s strengths and areas of upside were transparent in this game. He showcased terrific catch-and-shoot ability in the first half, scoring 15 points on 6-8 shooting. At 6-7, he can get his shot off—and have a clear view—against any defender.

Edwin showcased at least three “NBA moves” off the dribble, something I didn’t see at Coaches vs. Cancer earlier this season. He converted an NBA-caliber step-back jumper on one possession, and pulled-up on another. Per Synergy, Edwin is converting 43% of his jump shots, including 48% off the dribble. He’s constantly in motion off the ball, running off screens and freeing himself up for open looks. Edwin has a fluid shooting motion, which should translate to the NBA.

Edwin is an average finisher around the basket. He hasn’t shown much when I’ve observed him live, but based on the film, it seems like Edwin struggles to maintain control through contact. The synergy between his athleticism and touch are often, well, not in synergy — it’s almost as if his body is one step ahead of his mind, and thus he loses control. He also opts for “floaters” and layups when, at 6-7, he should take it strong to the hoop. His current shot attempt distribution is 60% jump shots, 16% around the basket and 20% runner, while only getting to the free throw line 2.7 times per game. Too many runners, not enough attacking the basket.

Defensively, Edwin is a promising on-ball defender, with great length and anticipation skills. He’s holding opponents to 34% shooting in spot-up situations, and 27% in isolation. Good anticipation skills to go along with extraordinary length. Another skill that could translate to the NBA.

Overall, a great shooter and on-ball defender, but Edwin needs to improve his in-between game and finishing at the rim. He’s young at 22 years old, and with a 6-7 frame and shooting touch, Edwin has a possible future as role-playing shooting guard in the NBA.

Scoring (recent)

Off Screens

Isolation Defense

2. Kellen Dunham — SG, 6-6, 185
Sophomore, 21 years old

Season (36.7 mpg): 17.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2 APG
7.0 3PA, 38%

Game: 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists

Strengths
— Shooting (pick and roll, catch and shoot, off the dribble…total package)
— Size for position (6-6)

Areas of improvement
— Overly reliant on jump shot (87% of attempts)
— Finishing at rim (0.88 PPP)
— Ball control with left hand

Outlook: Dunham didn’t do much vs. Seton Hall: 9 points on 3-10 shooting. Thus, this evaluation is primarily based on watching film/interpreting statistics.

vs. Seton Hall

Dunham is first and foremost a shooter with good size (6-6) and range. 84% of his shot attempts are jumpers. Dunham can shoot from anywhere, with his feet set or on the move; however, he struggles to finish at the basket. In terms of shooting, he has NBA range and is capable of creating his own shot, whether he’s running pick and roll or coming off a screen.

Catch and Shoot

Off the Dribble

Perhaps Dunham could make the NBA solely because of his shooting ability, but his defects are clear. 1) He struggles to attack the basket, in any capacity—again, only 13% of his attempts come in the paint. 2) He strongly favors his right hand.

Quickly glance at these numbers:

Isolation: 67% drives right; 33% drives left.
57% FG percentage going right; 18% FG percentage going left

The film shows that Dunham struggles to keep his dribble alive with his left hand. Thus, he prematurely stops his dribble when going left, forcing himself into poorly angled pull up jumpers.

However, when driving right, he has the ability to maintain control through the lane. He still pulls-up for jumpers on occasion, but he is clearly more comfortable operating with his right hand.

Left Hand

Right Hand

Only 13% of Dunham’s attempts have come in the paint. Not crafty or skilled enough in the painted area. He needs to attack the basket with aggression and finish with consistency if he’s going to round out his game.

Finishing Struggles

Again, I need to see Dunham live again before making any definitive conclusions. But overall, his size and shooting ability make him a potential NBA prospect. It will be interesting to see how Dunham’s game develops—if at all—over the next year.

3. Kameron Woods — F, 6-9, 200
Junior, 21 years old

Season (34 mpg): 9 PPG, 9.4 RPG
26.7% defensive rebounding percentage (15th nationally)

Game: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists

Strengths
— Athletic and quick forward
— Runs floor in transition, active in half court
— Cutter/Slasher
— Decent Jump Shooter; Can face up and put ball on the floor

Areas of improvement
— Poor shooting beyond 12 feet
— Limited ball handling
— Only 200 pounds
— No back to the basket game

Outlook: Woods is a tall and slender forward who provides energy, effort and activity. He is most effective cutting to the basket, while also developing his arsenal to create one on one. Woods began entered college as a raw 6-9 athlete lacking feel or touch. Three years later, he’s developed into a versatile forward who can score from 15-feet and in.

Woods’ minutes have doubled from last season, and his production has likewise followed suit. He impacts the game on the glass, and roams the baseline for cuts toward the rim (80% FG percentage on cuts). He’s improved his jump shot every year (27%; 36%; 42%), while decreasing his attempts, but he’s still a poor shooter in my opinion. Awkward form—he brings the ball way above his head, with an inconsistent release point—and shooting only 38% in spot up situations.

Woods needs to add 20 pounds of muscle and continue to polish his offensive repertoire—specifically adding a few back to the basket moves. But I don’t see it—he lacks a true position, and doesn’t do anything at a particularly “elite” level. To me, he’s a serviceable yet run of the mill athletic forward.

Scoring (recent)

Driving/Around the Basket

Put Backs

Poor Shooting

4. Elijah Brown — G, 6-4, 185
Freshman

Season (19 mpg): 6.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.5 APG

Game: 12 points, 2 rebounds
2-4 three-pointers

Strengths
— Shooting
— Pick and roll scoring

Areas of improvement
— Facilitating/playmaking
— Perimeter defense
— Develop right hand
— Make transition to point guard

Outlook: The son of NBA coach Mike Brown, Elijah is a 6-4 lefty combo guard with scoring instincts and a developing jump shot. He quickly turns the corner on pick and rolls, converting 41% of his attempts in such situations. Brown has a second burst to get into the lane and deceptive athleticism to score at the basket.

Brown is currently stuck between point guard and shooting guard; he has a high basketball IQ and can score, but he’s not much of a facilitator. Brown also favors his left hand; he must develop his right hand to initiate offense from both sides of the court.

Defensively, he stays upright in his stance, often getting beat off the dribble. Opponents are shooting 48% in spot up situations, and 70% around the basket.

It’s still early in Brown’s career. If he can become a better playmaker and improve his right hand, he could become a reliable scoring threat.

Scoring (recent)

Pick and Roll

Defending Shooters

5. Brandon Mobley — F, 6-9, 215
Junior, 23 years old

Season (26 mpg): 8.8 PPG, 5 RPG

Game: 10 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks

Strengths
— So-so scorer inside the paint

Areas of improvement
— Awful jump shot
— Weak frame
— Position-less defensively
— 23 years old

Outlook: Barring drastic improvement in the near future, in my opinion the writing is on the wall for the 23 year-old Mobley. The good: an athletic forward who occasionally finishes around the basket. The bad: a tweener on defense, lacks an identity offensively, has a weak frame, and an awful jump shot.

Good athlete, but poor ball handler, poor jump shooter, and a weak frame.

Cutting

Perimeter Struggles

Post Up Struggles

Full Box Score

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Scouting Report: Manhattan vs. Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac 90, Manhattan 86 (OT)

January 26, 2014 | 2 p.m. EST | Draddy Gymnasium (Bronx, NY)

Quinnipiac 12-7, Manhattan 14-5

Recap: Three Quinnipiac players scored at least 20 points to help the Bobcats earn a 90-86 overtime victory. Guard Umar Shannon made two free throws in the final seconds of regulation to tie the game at 77-all and force overtime. The Bobcats never looked back, going on an 11-3 run to open the extra session. Behind Ike Azotam’s 21 points & 13 rebounds, and Zaid Hearst’s 25 points & 10 rebounds, the Bobcats out-rebounded Manhattan 51 to 38. Forward Rhamel Brown led Manhattan with 15 points, 4 rebounds and 5 blocks, but it was to no avail.

Previous Manhattan Evaluation

NBA Prospects

1. George Beamon (SR, Manhattan): SG, 6-4, 175

Others

2. Rhamel Brown (SR, Manhattan): F/C, 6-7, 240

3. Shane Richards (SO, Manhattan): SG, 6-5, 180

4. Ike Azotam: (SR, Quinnipiac): PF, 6-7, 240

5. Ashton Pankey (SO, Manhattan): F/C, 6-10, 225

–

1. George Beamon — SG, 6-4, 175
Senior, 23 years old

Season (31 mpg): 19.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 0.6 APG
4-14 FG

Game: 12 points, 12 rebounds, 0 assists

Cell: 516-417-4246

Outlook: The more I watch Beamon, the more he appears one-dimensional (a scorer). Scoring-wise, he can do it all — pull-up from anywhere, and aggressively drive to finish at the basket. Beamon ranks third in scoring and fifth in rebounding in the MAAC, along with a 23.4 Player Efficiency Rating.

That being said, it seems like Beamon always peaks in the first half. When defenders make adjustments at halftime, Beamon begins to defer, or simply struggles to get his shot off. This was evident vs. Quinnipiac, as well as George Washington earlier in the season.

Beamon’s natural scoring gifts—he can take any MAAC defender off the dribble, with ease—are evident. He dips his shoulders through the lane, and angles his body to draw contact at the basket. But he’s only 6-4, and lacks explosiveness, evidenced both by in-person observation and his “average” 1.04 points per around the basket attempt. Futhermore, Beamon doesn’t facilitate or create offense for others; he has virtually no feel for getting his teammates involved.

Overall, I think Beamon will have a successful professional career somewhere, but not in the NBA. At 6-4 and only 175 pounds, I don’t see the NBA in his future. If he was a better facilitator, I’d vouch for him as a potential point guard prospect. But he hasn’t played PG once this season.

Scoring (recent)

Offensive Rebounds (put-backs)

Finishing Struggles

Other Players

2. Rhamel Brown — F/C, 6-7, 240
Senior, 21 years old

Season (23.4 mpg): 9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.7 BPG
16% block percentage (2nd nationally); 65% free-throw

Game: 15 points, 4 rebounds, 5 blocks

Outlook: The two-time MAAC Defensive Player of the Year, Brown is a physical competitor who plays bigger than his 6-7 body. Good defensive technique in the paint—maintains his position and stays upright, moves well laterally, and exceptional timing/anticipation to block shots. He gets off the ground quickly to contest shots at the rim. That said, he’s undersized, and although he has good timing on blocks, Brown fell victim to several ball fakes vs. Quinnipiac. He has defensive ability, but that ability has a ceiling.

Brown has made strides as a perimeter defender this season, but he lacks the foot speed to contain perimeter penetration, as quicker players can blow by him. Thus, his range is limited defensively.

His offensive skills are limited as well. Brown is active and athletic to finish put-backs and catch lobs. He can finish with either hand at the basket, usually the beneficiary of an assist. But he struggles to create in the low post, and he doesn’t have much range outside 10-feet. In fact, 95% of his attempts are in the paint.

Overall, Brown is a tenacious competitor who can block shots and finish at the rim. But at only 6-7, his range is limited on both sides of the ball.

Athletic/Inside Scoring

Limited Range

Defending

3. Shane Richards — SG, 6-5, 180
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (23 mpg): 8.5 PPG, 1.4 RPG
6.1 3PA; 39%

Game: 12 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists

Outlook: Richards is a 6-5 guard who’s best—and right now, only—skill is shooting. 125 of 140 field goal attempts have been 3-pointers.

His shooting form is near perfect and a joy to observe. He’s excelled in this role, as Manhattan’s sparkplug off the bench.

However, two red flags: 1) While 97% of his shot attempts have been jumpers, 91% of those attempts have come with his feet set (catch and shoot), and 2) Besides shooting, Richards doesn’t do much—er, anything—else.

Only a sophomore, Richards has the time to improve. But if he wants to become an upper-tier player in the MAAC, he’ll need to expand his offensive arsenal beyond just a shooting specialist. If he does, I could see Richards averaging 15-20 points next season. Not an NBA prospect, but still a good player.

3-Point Shooting

4. Ike Azotam — PF, 6-7, 240
Senior, 23 years old

Season (35 mpg): 16.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 1.2 BPG

Game: 21 points, 13 rebounds

Outlook: Azotam is an undersized power forward. He would ideally be playing SF, but instead his strength is scoring in the post. Yes, he can play power forward in the MAAC, but his size would not suffice at the next level.

Decently skilled, but undersized and un-athletic.

85% of Azotam’s attempts come in the paint, while only 8% are jump shots. And although 85% of his attempts are in the paint, Azotam is posting .94 points per “around the basket” attempt, and .74 points per “post up” attempt — both of which rank in the bottom 75th percentile nationally.

Even with his impressive per-game averages, Azotam is out of position and frankly not NBA material.

Finishing Struggles

Missed Jump Shots (only 8% of attempts)

5. Ashton Pankey — F/C, 6-10, 225
Sophomore, 22 years old

Season (17 mpg): 7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1 BPG

Game: 4 points, 2 rebounds

*Transferred from Maryland after two seasons.

Outlook: Pankey has intriguing size at 6-10, but he is a very raw prospect at this stage of his career. He is literally devoid of any offensive skills, but he has the framework (athleticism and size) to utilize skills should they ever develop.

Right now, he’s more of a tall person than an actual basketball player. Pankey attempts only 4 field goals per game, shoots 54% from the free-throw line, and is unable to create offense for himself. With a player of his size and experience (averaged 20 minutes per game at Maryland), you’d expect him to have some semblance of an offensive game—nope. He can finish dunks and tip-ins, but not much else.

Video: Close Range

Misses

Full Box Score

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Opposition Report: Houston Cougars

UConn vs. Houston: Thursday, January 30, 2014

Opposition Report: Houston Cougars

Record: 11-9 (3-4)

Offense: 1.04 points per possession (210th)
Defense: 1.02 points allowed per possession (148th)

Keys to the Game:

1. Be aware of backside screens set for TaShawn Thomas (Houston’s best player, legitimate inside-outside threat — Thomas runs off quick, sneaky screens in the post to create easy opportunities)

Video: Thomas Screen Slip

2. Rebound every possession (Thomas’ 8.8 RPG ranks second in AAC; 15% of attempts on put-backs; excellent box-out technique)

3. Pressure LJ Rose (6-4 point guard, averaging 5 assists per game; solid court vision; Can penetrate, draw defense and get shooters open looks)

4. Close out on Jherrod Stiggers’ jump shot (only shooting 31% from deep, but Stiggers averages 6.4 three-point attempts per game. He can knock down shots — uses 40% of Houston’s 3-point attempts)

5. Keep a body on Danrad Knowles (6-9 athletic forward—high energy, agile, long. Knowles lurks around for put-backs, and runs ahead in transition for easy dunks)

Quick Thoughts

TaShawn Thomas is Houston’s most dangerous, most productive, and most important player.
— How do you approach defending TaShawn Thomas? That’s been the question for every Houston opponent this season. The 6-8 forward, who had 23 points and 8 rebounds in the first matchup vs. UConn, is extremely productive and efficient. He averages 17 points and 8 rebounds on 61% shooting. Powerful, fluid and nimble on his feet, he has the ability to create offense anywhere inside the arc. Facing up or against the basket, slashing or finishing a put-back.

Thomas is extremely important to Houston — his 3.3 win shares rank 5th in the AAC (only Smith, Harrell, Napier and Kilpatrick are as important to their team), and Thomas is Houston’s only player in the top 40 of win shares.

All that said, despite shooting 61%, Thomas creates much of his own offense. If you can stop him from slashing/cutting to the hoop for easy baskets, and if UConn’s frontline is in position to provide help defense and contest shots, you can make it difficult for Thomas. It won’t be easy, though.

For Houston to win, it will need success from 3-point range

3-point shooting (conference games):

Wins:
7-14 (50%)
6-14 (42%)
11-25 (44%)
9-19 (47%) – one point loss vs. Cincinnati

Losses:
5-20 (25%)
2-14 (14%)
8-18 (44%)

— Wing players Danuel House (4.5 attempts; 34%) and Jherrod Stiggers (6.4 attempts; 31%) are Houston’s best 3-point shooters. Inconsistent, but certainly capable of knocking down shots. However, they both excel with their feet set—”catch and shoot”—and they struggle “shooting off the dribble.”

More on this below, but the point is: Make sure you contest House and Stiggers.

Pressure LJ Rose
— 6-4 point guard, good court vision. 37.5% assist rate ranks 13th nationally. Effective setting teammates up in transition. Top-75 high school recruit, gifted player.

Only 5.5% of Houston’s offense is in pick-and-roll (UConn — 14.3% of offense in pick-and-roll)

–

Connecticut

Point Distribution: 48% 2-Pointers | 30% 3-Pointers | 22% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 55% Jump Shots | 34% Around Basket | 6% Post-Ups | 5% Runner

83% Half Court; 17% Transition

Houston

Point Distribution: 54% 2-Pointers | 25% 3-Pointers | 21% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 48% Jump Shots | 35% Around Basket | 8% Post-Ups | 9% Runner

22% Transition; 78% Half-Court

Key Players:

TaShawn Thomas — 16.5 PPG, 8 RPG
Junior, SF, 6-8, 240

Strengths
— Gifted scorer (61% shooting; creates much of his own offense; strong frame to finish through contact, can face up or post up)
— Rebounding (8.8 RPG; excellent boxing-out)
— Cutting/Slashing (22% of offense; converting 75% of cuts)
— Shot blocking (9.8% block percentage ranks 39th nationally)

Vulnerable
— Average Jump Shooter (Only 11% of attempts; not very comfortable from perimeter)
— Interior Defense (lacks strength and foot speed)

Strengths

Video: Screen Slip

Slashing to the hoop

Interior Scoring
—Thomas is shooting 70% “around the basket”, and specifically 48% with his back to the basket. He has NBA moves in the paint.

Isolation / Spot-Up Points

Video: Post Up Misses

Offensive Rebounding

— Nearly 9 boards per game. Not the most athletic player, but Thomas has terrific technique and a wide frame to box-out and secure rebounds.

Vulnerable

Average jump shooting

— Thomas is capable of knocking down jumpers, but not his strong suit.

Interior Defense

— Allowing 1.2 points per “around the basket” attempt, and 1.1 points per “post up” attempt. Both rank in bottom 70th percentile. Stronger, taller, quicker players can expose Thomas.

Danuel House — 13 PPG, 5.7 RPG
Sophomore, SF, 6-7, 195

Strengths
— Tall wing player who can shoot with his feet set (catch and shoot)
— Long arms defensively. Versatile defender.

Vulnerable
— Jacks up 3′s (34% on 4.5 attempts)
— No isolation game
— Struggles to finish around the basket

Strengths

3-Point Shooting (sometimes)
— As the film shows, almost all attempts are catch-and-shoot

Perimeter Defense
— Holding opponents to 22% on jump shots. Good perimeter defender.

Vulnerable

Missed Jump Shots

Poor Isolation

Finishing Struggles

Jherrod Stiggers — 10.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG
Sophomore, SG, 6-5, 210

Strengths
— Good Spot-Up Shooter (sometimes; 31% three-pointers on 6.4 attempts)

Video: catch-and-shoot

Vulnerable

— Struggles shooting off the dribble/off screens

LJ Rose — 8.6 PPG, 5.5 APG
Sophomore, PG, 6-4, 190

Strengths
— Court Vision (6-4 point guard, 37.5% assist rate ranks 13th nationally. Effective setting teammates up in transition)
— Capable scorer (45% in spot-up attempts; developing perimeter skill set, becoming increasingly reliable)

Vulnerable
— Struggles to score on pick-and-roll (0.6 points per attempt – not a good mark. slow turning the corner on screens)

Court Vision

Spot-Up Scoring

Pick-and-Roll Struggles

Danrad Knowles — 8 PPG, 5 RPG
Freshman, PF, 6-10, 190

Strengths
— Freak athlete. High Energy. Lurks around for tip-ins and put-backs.
— Long arms defensively
— Playing well recently (13 and 9 vs. UConn, 12 and 5 vs. USF, 9 and 10 vs. Cincy, 16 and 8 vs. Rutgers)

Vulnerable
— Raw offensively
— Bites on pump fakes

Strengths

Rebounding Pursuit

Recent scoring

Cutting (versatile and athletic)

Defending Jump Shots (can contest all UConn forwards’ shots…)

Vulnerable

Raw offensively

Bites on pump fakes

— Here, Shabazz Napier uses a quick pump fake to get Knowles out of position. Smart and effective.

Opposition Report: Temple Owls

UConn vs. Temple: Tuesday, January 21, 2014

*I’ve observed Temple live once this season. 71-66 loss @ Rutgers.

Opposition Report: Temple Owls

Record: 5-11 (0-5)

Offense: 1.08 points per possession (112th)
Defense: 1.07 points allowed per possession (259th)

Notes:

— Temple has four “key players” — PG Will Cummings, SG Quenton DeCosey, SG Dalton Pepper, and PF Anthony Lee. They use 80% of Temple’s shot attempts. (By comparison, UConn’s four leading shot takers only use 66% of attempts.)

— Will Cummings is the only Temple player averaging more than 2 assists. However, he’s missed three straight games due to a head injury and his status is uncertain.

— Hardly any pick-and-roll (only 9% of offense; “bigs” don’t pose threat on pick-and-roll / pick-and-pop)

— Temple beats you with outside shooting and points in transition. Not much interior production.

Video: Transition

Keys to the Game:

1. Contest Quenton DeCosey at all times (6-5 shooting guard, complete player. can shoot and attack basket; force him into difficult shot attempts)

2. Close out on Dalton Pepper (good shooter, but struggles to finish around the basket. 75% of attempts are jump shots)

3. Force Will Cummings “right” (clearly favors attacking left side of court)

4. Make Will Cummings put the ball on the floor [good catch and shoot (1.4 points per attempt), but struggles shooting off the dribble (.42 points per attempt)]

5. Exploit Anthony Lee (terrible post defender; opponents shooting 58% in the paint against him; 3.5 fouls in 28 minutes per game; weak defensive fundamentals)

Quick Thoughts: Temple is essentially a four-player team: Cummings, DeCosey, Pepper and Lee. Three perimeter, one interior.

Assuming Cummings recovers in time, he is a crafty 6-2 guard who creates for himself and his teammates (16 points and 4 assists per game). However, his strengths and weaknesses are apparent. He’s a terrific shooter with his feet set (catch and shoot), and has a polished floater. But he struggles shooting off the dribble, and clearly prefers dribbling/attacking with his left hand.

If you can fluster Cummings, Temple will struggle to move the ball. And without ball movement, they’ll rely entirely on isolation basketball, which doesn’t lead to success.

Alongside Cummings in the backcourt are Quenton DeCosey and Dalton Pepper. DeCosey is a 6-5 athlete with range on his jump shot. He has “game changing” ability when he’s in a rhythm — I saw him shoot 9-14 (22 points) with six 3-pointers vs. Rutgers. DeCosey can shoot with his feet set or off the dribble, so it’s best to play “team defense” against him. Get a hand up when DeCosey shoots.

On defense, DeCosey struggles to defend the pick-and-roll. Indecisive whether to go over or under screens, and stays upright in his defensive stance. His .929 points allowed per pick-and-roll attempt ranks in the bottom 75th percentile nationally. Quicker guards, like Napier and Boatright, should expose DeCosey in pick-and-rolls.

Dalton Pepper is a strong guard with NBA range. But he’s limited athletically, and really struggles to finish at the rim. In fact, he doesn’t even try to attack the rim—75% of his shots this season have been jump shots, while only 25% have been inside the paint. You can’t lose focus on DeCosey and Pepper, because they will knock down shots. But if you contest shots and make them beat you one-on-one, you should be OK.

On the interior, Lee is a rangy 6-9 forward with bounce and athleticism. His success is predicated on tip-ins and energy plays. However, he’s not skilled offensively — he competes for buckets around the hoop, but has virtually no range beyond 10 feet. The most important thing is to match his activity and energy.

Defensively, Lee can be exposed. He’s too skinny in the post, and too slow on his feet to defend stretch-forwards. Napier/Daniels can run pick-and-pops all day here.

In summary — DeCosey, Pepper, Cummings and Lee. Let’s take a look at some video.

–

Connecticut Huskies

Point Distribution: 48% 2-Pointers | 30% 3-Pointers | 22% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 55% Jump Shots | 34% Around Basket | 6% Post-Ups | 5% Runner

Temple Owls

Point Distribution: 56% 2-Pointers | 26% 3-Pointers | 18% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Distribution: 49% Jump Shots | 34% Around Basket | 10% Post-Ups | 7% Runner

Key Players:

1. Quenton DeCosey — 16.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 42% jump shots
Sophomore, SG, 6-5, 180

Strengths
— Gifted scorer
— Smooth jump shot
— Athleticism to finish in transition

Vulnerable
— Struggles defending pick-and-roll (.929 points allowed per pick-and-roll attempt ranks in the bottom 75th percentile. Napier and Boatright, should expose DeCosey in isolation pick-and-rolls)

Strengths

Scoring

Vulnerable

Finishing

Misses

Pick-and-Roll Defense

2. Dalton Pepper — 17 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 43% three-pointers
Senior, SG, 6-5, 220

Strengths
— NBA range (Seventy-five percent of shots are jumpers)
— Strong guard who can finish in transition

Vulnerable
— Struggles to finish around the basket
— Isolation defense (slow feet, can be exposed on P-n-R)

He’s a physical SG with terrific range on his jumper. He’s most effective in catch-and-shoot situations (shooting 54%), and is a consistent scorer for this Temple group. But he struggles to finish around the rim.

Strengths

Shooting

Vulnerable

Poor Isolation Defense

Finishing Struggles

Limited Skills

3. Will Cummings — 16 PPG, 3 RPG, 4 APG
Junior, PG, 6-2, 175

*Status for game uncertain

Strengths
— Spot-Up/Isolation
— Catch-and-Shoot
— Polished Floater

Vulnerable
— Doesn’t dribble much on perimeter shots (50% of spot-up/isolation attempts are one-or-two dribbles)
— Poor shooting off the dribble
— Favors left hand (pounds ball

Strengths

Catch-and-Shoot

Spot-Up/Isolation Points

Polished Floater – don’t let him into this pocket of the court

Vulnerable

Off the Dribble shooting

Clearly wants to go left in “spot-up” situations — make him go right

Pick-and-Roll Struggles

Shooting — mostly good at 3′s, no mid-range

4. Anthony Lee — 14 PPG, 10 RPG, 3.5 Fouls
Junior, F, 6-9, 230

Strengths
— Crashing Boards (active and athletic for tip-ins)

Vulnerable
— No Range
— Limited Post Game
— Defending Shooters (Slow on feet; Napier and Daniels should expose Lee in pick-and-pop)

Strengths

Crashing Boards (tip-ins)

Vulnerable

Limited Post Game

Poor Shooting

Poor Defense

Scouting Report: Fordham vs. Richmond

Richmond 77, Fordham 74

Saturday, January 11, 2014 | 7 p.m. EST| Rose Hill Gym (Bronx, NY)

Richmond 11-6, Fordham 7-8

Recap: Richmond guard Kendall Anthony hit a 3-pointer with 13 seconds remaining in overtime to give his team a 77-74 victory. Senior point guard Cedric Lindsay led the Spiders with 19 points and 4 assists. On the flip side, Fordham’s backcourt of Branden Frazier and Jon Severe combined for 48 points, but ultimately it wasn’t enough. Richmond snapped its two game losing streak, while Fordham has now lost four in a row.

NBA Prospects

1. Branden Frazier (SR, Fordham): SG, 6-3, 170

2. Jon Severe (FR, Fordham): G, 6-2, 185

–

*Age calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

1. Branden Frazier — SG, 6-3, 170
Senior, 21 years old

Season (38 mpg): 19 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.6 APG

Game: 29 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists

Outlook: Frazier put on a scoring exhibition, scoring 20 of his 29 points in the second half. A wiry 6-3 shooting guard, he displayed a smooth handle along with scoring gifts (relative to the A-10 conference). He converted several difficult/contested shots, mostly out of isolation sets.

Frazier is most effective when he penetrates the lane, as he’s shooting 65% from 17-feet and in. He’s not a great finisher at the basket (.72 PPP), but he simply makes plays inside the 3-point line. He can occasionally hit the 3-pointer, but isn’t consistent (32% from three).

Overall, Frazier is one of the more under the radar scorers in the country. He’s young for a senior (21), and gets to the free throw line. Averages of 19 points/5 rebounds/4.6 assists shed light on his overall presence, albeit those numbers are inflated because he plays 38 minutes per game. On film, Frazier has decent—but not particularly impressive—court vision.

Nice game vs. Richmond, but Richmond is no barometer of NBA potential. He did score 33 points on 9-14 shooting vs. Syracuse earlier this season, but I have not observed that game.

In terms of the NBA, I think Frazier would struggle as a 6-3 shooting guard, on both ends of the floor. Offensively, I can’t see him getting his shot off against longer and more physical defenders. Defensively, he needs to add muscle to his skinny frame.

Smooth scorer, but I don’t see his game translating to the NBA. I could, however, see him competing in the D-League.

Video: Scoring vs. Richmond

Video: Assists

Video: Pick-and-Roll Misses

Video: Pick-and-Roll Scoring

2. Jon Severe — G, 6-2, 185
Freshman, 20 years old

Season (36.5 mpg): 21.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.3 APG

Game: 19 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist

Outlook: Severe has no filter or discretion on offense—he leads the A-10 with 266 field goal attempts, which is 42 more attempts than any other player in the conference. Some other numbers:

17.7 FGA
30.5% Usage Percentage (2nd in A-10)
28.8% of possessions used (95th nationally)
30.5% of Fordham’s shot attempts (83rd nationally)

Severe has the ultimate green light on this Fordham team, and it’s been both a blessing and a curse due to inconsistency. He’s scored 28 points on 9-15 vs. St. Francis, 19 on 5-12 vs. Syracuse, and 29 on 11-19 vs. Harvard. But he’s also had 9 points on 1-21 vs. St. John’s, and 19 points on 4-22 vs. Richmond.

Right now, his scoring is inconsistent, and I think it stems from his overall feel (or lack thereof) for the game.

His biggest strengths are ball-handling and 3-point shooting. His biggest weakness, however, is a penchant to jack up shots, instead of being patient and letting the game come to him. He jacks up shots early in possessions, and frankly doesn’t know how to play within the framework of an offense. He’s a good scorer and can score in bunches, but he incessantly calls for the basketball, and forces it. He needs to learn how to impact the game without the ball in his hands.

Only a freshman, Severe will have to transform himself into a point guard if he wants to garner NBA consideration. Right now, he lacks the proper mindset to facilitate for his teammates, let alone lead an offense.

Against Richmond, Severe had 8 points (2-9), 0 rebounds and 0 assists at halftime. He was an even worse 2-13 in the second half. The key is becoming more consistent while showing a willingness to move the ball. At only 6-2, he needs to be more than a scorer.

–

Video: Isolation Scoring

29% of Severe’s offense is in isolation, where his .91 points per attempt ranks in the 61st percentile nationally. He uses a variety of offensive moves and a quick release to get his shot off. He’s converting a solid 40% of his 3-point attempts (nine per game).

Video: Transition Struggles

Severe struggles in transition. He forces attempts, and also lacks the burst/athleticism to finish at the rim.

Video: Spot-Up Misses

Severe often takes ill-advised shots early in the clock. He’ll need to develop patience and more prudent shot selection.

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 Draft

Full Box Score

Scouting Report: Rutgers vs. Louisville

Louisville 83, Rutgers 76

Saturday, January 4, 2014 | 6 p.m. EST | RAC (Piscataway, NJ)

Louisville 13-2, Rutgers 7-8

Recap: Rutgers got off to a strong start, leading 28-24 with three minutes left in the first half. But Louisville’s full-court press—combined with its superior skill—was too much for Rutgers to overcome. Louisville senior Russ Smith scored 22 points (14-16 FT), Wayne Blackshear contributed 13 points and 4 rebounds, and freshman guard Terry Rozier scored a season-high 14 points. Myles Mack led Rutgers with 19 points, but he was 1-7 from 3. This was a chippy game, featuring an unusually-high 62 personal fouls.

Previous Louisville Evaluation
Previous Rutgers Evaluation

NBA Prospects (in order of performance/potential shown)

1. Montrezl Harrell (SO, Louisville): PF, 6-8, 230

2. Russ Smith (SR, Louisville): G, 6-0, 165

3. Terry Rozier (FR, Louisville): G, 6-1, 165

Next Tier

4. Chris Jones (JR, Louisville): PG, 5-10, 175

5. Kadeem Jack (JR, Rutgers): SF/PF, 6-9, 230

6. Wayne Blackshear (JR, Louisville): G/F, 6-5, 210

7. Junior Etou (FR, Rutgers): F, 6-7, 225

8. Wally Judge (SR, Rutgers): PF, 6-9, 250

Not NBA Caliber

9. Myles Mack (JR, Rutgers): PG, 5-9, 175

–

NBA Prospects

1. Montrezl Harrell — PF, 6-8, 235
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (25 mpg): 11.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG

Game: 6 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, 5 fouls

Outlook: Harrell committed five fouls in only 20 minutes of play, so he was relegated to the bench for most of the game. He finished with 6 points (3-5), 7 rebounds and 3 steals.

Once again, he showcased NBA athleticism and mobility in the open court, and continued to attack the boards. But he also showcased a broken jump shot. For the season, Harrell is shooting 27% on only 15 jump shot attempts, per Synergy.

Still, his strengths were apparent. Harrell is very bouncy, can block shots and finish in the paint. I’m not yet sure how he fits into an NBA offense (especially in the half-court), but he has NBA tools and he’s still very young. Harrell belongs in the NBA, but to what extent/role I’m not yet sure. I look forward to watching him compete again.

Video: Points vs. Rutgers

2. Russ Smith — G, 6-0, 165
Senior, 23 years old

Season (28 mpg): 18 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.1 RPG

Game: 22 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 turnovers

Outlook: A solid performance for Smith, in terms of scoring the basketball. He was only 4-11 from the field, but he accumulated 16 free throw attempts. Smith finished in transition, converted mid-range jumpers, and finished near the basket. His scoring ability was on display, though it was against the 238th-ranked defense.

Smith averages nearly five assists per game, and his 34.5% assist rate ranks 35th in the country. His improved assist numbers (2.9 APG in 30 MPG last year; 4.8 APG in 28 MPG this year), combined with proven pick-and-roll ability, prompts the thought of Smith playing point guard in the NBA. Smith is still erratic at times, but he’s obviously made a concentrated effort to become more of a point guard, which is a step in the right direction if nothing else.

Video: Points vs. Rutgers

3. Terry Rozier — G, 6-1, 165
Freshman, 20 years old

Season (17.5 mpg): 6.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 APG

Game: 14 points, 2 steals, 0 assists

Outlook: This was my first time ever seeing Rozier play, at least in terms of “real minutes.” In 21 minutes off the bench, he scored 14 points (7-7 FT), and showcased potential as a big-time scorer.

Rozier seemed lost and out of control at times, struggling to process the game. But he’s only a freshman, and I expect he’ll adapt to the game faster than most.

He has a smooth jump shot, long arms, and his scoring gifts are already apparent. He has upside as a wing rebounder and perimeter defender. Once he develops his off-the-dribble game, Rozier could become very difficult to stop. He’ll most likely take over at PG next season, and he has the playmaking abilities to make it work. I’m not sure what kind of passer he is, but if Rozier can continue to grow and also add muscle to his frame, he should emerge on the Draft radar as early as next season. He could average 17-20 points per game next season.

Video: Shooting

Video: Around the Basket

Right now, Rozier struggles to finish at the rim. A lack of explosion and touch. Small sample size, but his .95 points per “around the basket” attempt ranks in the bottom 75th percentile nationally. Given his long arms and smooth handle, though, I think he’ll improve in this regard.

–

Next Tier

4. Chris Jones — PG, 5-10, 175
Junior, 22 years old (via Northwest Florida State Junior College)

Season (26.1 mpg): 12 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.9 APG

Game: 6 points, 3 steals, 2 assists

Outlook: The more I watch Jones, the more I question his NBA potential. He didn’t show much of anything vs. Rutgers.

Jones is a good spot-up shooter, but hasn’t had the all-around impact many expected. He’s a solid pick-and-roll threat and he can score in isolation, but it’s nothing overly impressive at this point. After scoring 18 points vs. Kentucky, Jones has scored 5, 6, 2 and 2 to begin conference play.

His diminutive size and lack of production make me wonder how much upside he has left. He’s a strong guard with good scoring instincts, but I’m not sure I see him at the NBA level.

5. Kadeem Jack — SF/PF, 6-9, 230
Junior, 21 years old

Season (29 mpg): 14 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.5 BPG

Game: 18 points, 6 rebounds
8-12 FG

Outlook:

Jack has improved incrementally every season, which is an encouraging sign.

Freshman: 8.3 MPG, 1.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 26% FG

Sophomore: 18.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 46% FG

Junior: 29.4 MPG, 14 PPG, 7 RPG, 53% FG

That being said, Jack is still more “prospect” than “polished.”

He’s a power forward trapped in a small forward’s body. Standing at a wiry 6-9, Jack can finish around the basket, but he struggles to create for himself on the perimeter. Instead, he scores on “effort” plays—slashing to the hoop, put-backs, taking the open jump shot, etc.

He has NBA athleticism, but his lack of perimeter skills relegate him to the interior, which doesn’t bode well for a 6-9, 230-pound player. He’s young for his age, so if he can extend his game, Jack has an outside chance to develop into a fringe prospect as a senior.

Video: Recent Points (versatile, scoring)

Video: Offensive Rebounds

Video: Transition (terrific athlete)

Video: Missed Jump Shots

Video: Made Jump Shots

6. Wayne Blackshear — G/F, 6-5, 210
Junior, 22 years old

Season (20.4 mpg): 9.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.8 APG

Game: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 2 blocks/assists/steals

Outlook: It’s been difficult to evaluate Blackshear because he’s played out of position for long stretches in games. He was a shooting guard in high school, but often plays forward in Louisville’s lineup.

Still, it’s apparent that Blackshear is a physical player who can finish through contact. He is also a tough rebounder. Developing jump shot, and when you look at his complete profile, on paper he has the making of an NBA prospect. He’s a former McDonald’s All-American, with NBA size/strength to finish through contact.

However, Blackshear is not consistent with his production, and often appears out of position on the court. Most concerning though, is that Blackshear has never distinguished himself on the court. He’s good—but not elite—in any facet right now.

Video: Points vs. Rutgers

7. Junior Etou — F, 6-7, 225
Freshman, 22 years old*

Season (21.3 mpg): 5.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1 BPG, 3 Fouls

Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds

*Etou’s age was a controversial topic throughout high school, as he was reportedly 20 years old during his senior year. He was also ineligible for the first six games of this season because he allegedly received “impermissible benefits.”

*Thunder forward Serge Ibaka is reportedly Etou’s cousin.

Outlook: It was difficult to fully evaluate Etou because most of his points came from alley-oops. It was clear he’s a good athlete who rebounds and defends on every possession, but that’s all I could glean.

Etou plays with an “in your face” attitude, refusing to back down from anybody. His skill set is raw, but he runs the floor, provides energy and rebounds. He’s only been playing basketball for a few years (started in his late teens), so he’s certainly a moldable player with room to grow. But he will be 22 years old at season’s end, so improvement needs to come quickly.

Going forward, he needs to develop some semblance of a jump shot — Per Synergy, he’s 1-13 on 18-foot jumpers this season, compared to 6-13 from mid-range and interior. Etou needs to develop his handle and jump shot to have a chance.

Video: Scoring this season

Video: Shooting struggles

–

8. Wally Judge — PF, 6-9, 250
Senior, 23 years old

Season (24 mpg): 8.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.8 Fouls

Game: 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 blocks

*Transferred from Kansas State following his sophomore season

Outlook: A former McDonald’s All-American, Judge was once considered a first-round NBA Draft pick. But that was before he transferred schools, before he sat out a year, and before his development plateaued.

At age 23, he’s at Rutgers trying to salvage his career. Judge still possesses many of the same traits that put him on the NBA radar—athleticism, physicality at the power forward position, energy and a penchant to rebound—but he still struggles to bring it all together.

He disappears for long stretches, and can hardly create offense for himself. He also fouls too much, averaging 3.8 fouls in only 24 minutes per game. He’s been foul-prone throughout college. Judge is talented; but at 23 years old, and with five years of college under his belt, you have to wonder if he’s already realized his ceiling. I don’t see it happening.

Video: Poor jump shooting

Per Synergy, Judge has only attempted two jump shots all season. His attempts are almost exclusively within 10 feet of the basket.

Video: Points around the basket

Judge is shooting 60% around the basket. He can finish with either hand at—and above—the rim. In this regard, he has potential as a pick-and-roll screener.

Video: Post-Ups Made

Judge is shooting 55% on traditional back to the basket post-ups. Still, he’s only attempting six shots per game, so it is a small sample size.

Not NBA Caliber

9. Myles Mack — PG, 5-9, 175
Junior, 21 years old

Season (32 mpg): 16.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.4 APG

Game: 10 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists

Outlook: I don’t see the NBA in Mack’s future. At only 5-9, he forces shots, and is a score-first point guard who, quite frankly, isn’t even a great scorer. He lacks the size and skill to play in the NBA

Mack jacked up shots in both games I watched — he shot 3-11 vs. Temple, and shot 6-13 (1-7 from 3-point range) vs. Louisville. He didn’t facilitate much for his teammates, drove into traffic carelessly, and was out of control. He’s a volume shooter who can shoot himself into, or out of, a game..

Missed Field Goals

Transition Struggles

Mack struggles to finish in transition due to his size. He often pulls-up for a 3-pointer in transition, furthermore exhibiting imprudent shot selection.

Pick-and-Roll Struggles

22% of Mack’s offense comes in the form of pick-and-rolls. He does a nice job turning the corner, but he often struggles to finish at the rim.

Jump Shooting (three-pointers)

Mack is hit or miss from 3-point range, as he’s gone 4-6, 5-7 or 5-8, but has also gone 1-7 or 1-8. Rutgers expects him to score, but Mack often jacks up shots without regard for the clock or game situation.

Defense (small, can’t contest)

Due to his diminutive size, Mack has trouble contesting jump shots and also containing penetration. Per Synergy, he’s allowing 1.2 points per possession in spot-up situations, ranking in the bottom 20th percentile nationally. His limitations are apparent on film as well.

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full Box Score

Scouting Report: Rutgers vs. Temple

Rutgers 71, Temple 66

Wednesday, January 1, 2014 | 8 p.m. EST | RAC (Piscataway, NJ)

Rutgers 7-7, Temple 5-6

Recap: Rutgers freshman Junior Etou scored a go-ahead three-point-play with 40 seconds left to help the Scarlet Knights escape with a win. Four Rutgers players scored in double figures—Kadeem Jack had 18 points, Myles Mack posted 10 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, and JJ Moore/Wally Judge contributed 12 a piece. For Temple, sophomore guard Quenton DeCosey put on a scoring exhibition, finishing with 25 points on 9-14 shooting (including six 3-pointers), and senior Dalton Pepper contributed 19 points. However, DeCosey was held scoreless in the final 15:15 of the game. This was the first conference game for both teams.

NBA Prospects (in order of performance/potential shown):

1. Quenton DeCosey (SO, Temple): SG, 6-5, 180

2. Kadeem Jack (JR, Rutgers): SF/PF, 6-9, 230

3. Junior Etou (FR, Rutgers): F, 6-7, 225

4. Wally Judge (SR, Rutgers): PF, 6-9, 250

Next Tier

5. Myles Mack (JR, Rutgers): PG, 5-9, 175

6. Dalton Pepper (SR, Temple): SG, 6-5, 220

–

NBA Prospects

1. Quenton DeCosey — SG, 6-5, 180
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (35 mpg): 15.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 46%

Game: 25 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists
9-14 FG, 6-7 three-pointers

Outlook: DeCosey is an athletic, slashing wing player with a smooth jump shot. He made six 3-pointers vs. Rutgers, most of which were contested shots. He has NBA size and length at the shooting guard position, with potential to score from all three levels.

He doesn’t elevate on his jump shot (“flat-footed”), which is concerning, and he also struggled to create off the dribble. He can get to the rim, but struggles to finish there. Right now, he is simply a good athlete with a decent jump shot.

DeCosey kept Temple in contention, but ultimately it wasn’t enough. Taking a look at his statistics, DeCosey is a good spot-up shooter (44%, 1.2 PPP), and is solid in transition (50%). He also has potential to run off screens and initiate offense.

Nearly 70% of DeCosey’s attempts are jump shots, while only 22% of his attempts are around the basket. He needs to focus on attacking the rim more.

All things considered, DeCosey’s size, length and scoring ability make him an NBA prospect, albeit one with glaring weaknesses at this point.

Video: Points vs. Rutgers, UCF

Video: Misses

Video: Finishing Struggles

Video: Contesting Jump Shots (Good length)

DeCosey’s length is an asset on defense, where he’s holding opponents to 30% shooting on spot up attempts. He’s blocked a few shots on the perimeter this season.

2. Kadeem Jack — SF/PF, 6-9, 230
Junior, 21 years old

Season (29 mpg): 14 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.5 BPG

Game: 18 points, 6 rebounds
8-12 FG

Outlook:

Jack has improved incrementally every season, which is an encouraging sign.

Freshman: 8.3 MPG, 1.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 26% FG

Sophomore: 18.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 46% FG

Junior: 29.4 MPG, 14 PPG, 7 RPG, 53% FG

That being said, Jack is still more “prospect” than “polished.”

Video: Recent Points (versatile, scoring)

Video: Offensive Rebounds

Video: Transition (terrific athlete)

Video: Missed Jump Shots

Video: Made Jump Shots

3. Junior Etou — F, 6-7, 225
Freshman, 22 years old*

Season (21.3 mpg): 5.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1 BPG, 3 Fouls

Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds

*Thunder forward Serge Ibaka is reportedly Etou’s cousin.

Video: Scoring this season

Video: Shooting struggles

4. Wally Judge — PF, 6-9, 250
Senior, 23 years old

Season (24 mpg): 8.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.8 Fouls

Game: 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 blocks

*Transferred from Kansas State following his sophomore season

Video: Poor jump shooting

Per Synergy, Judge has only attempted two jump shots all season. His attempts are almost exclusively within 10 feet of the basket.

Video: Points around the basket

Judge is shooting 60% around the basket. He can finish with either hand at—and above—the rim. In this regard, he has potential as a pick-and-roll screener.

Video: Post-Ups Made

Judge is shooting 55% on traditional back to the basket post-ups. Still, he’s only attempting six shots per game, so it is a small sample size.

–

Next Tier

5. Myles Mack — PG, 5-9, 175
Junior, 21 years old

Season (32 mpg): 16.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.4 APG

Game: 10 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists

Missed Field Goals

Transition Struggles

Mack struggles to finish in transition due to his size. He often pulls-up for a 3-pointer in transition, furthermore exhibiting imprudent shot selection.

Pick-and-Roll Struggles

22% of Mack’s offense comes in the form of pick-and-rolls. He does a nice job turning the corner, but he often struggles to finish at the rim.

Jump Shooting (three-pointers)

Defense (small, can’t contest)

6. Dalton Pepper — SG, 6-5, 220
Senior, 24 years old

Season (36 mpg): 16.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.4 APG

Game: 19 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists

*Transferred from West Virginia following his sophomore season

Outlook: Pepper is a good college player, but a real long shot for the NBA.

He’s a physical SG with range on his jumper. He’s most effective in catch-and-shoot situations (shooting 54%), and is a consistent scorer for this Temple group.

But he lacks NBA athleticism and struggles to create off the dribble. Furthermore, I assume Pepper would struggle against guys who match his strength and physicality. He also stays upright in his stance defensively, routinely getting beat off the dribble. At 24 years old, I don’t see it.

Video: Limited Skills

Video: Good Shooter

Video: Poor Isolation Defense

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full Box Score

Scouting Report: VCU vs. Boston College

VCU 69, Boston College 50

Saturday, December 28, 2013 | 7:30 p.m. EST | Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)

VCU 11-3, Boston College 4-9

Recap: Four VCU players scored in double figures en route to a relatively easy 69-50 win over Boston College. VCU perfectly executed its “havoc” defense, forcing a 23 turnovers. Juvonte Reddic had 14 points and 8 rebounds, Treveon Graham added 13 points and 6 rebounds, and x-factor guard Briante Weber contributed 6 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals. Sophomore guard Olivier Hanlan led BC with 17, and Ryan Anderson contributed 13 points and 7 rebounds. But those numbers didn’t carry any weight, as VCU led from start to finish. VCU improved to 3-0 against the ACC this season, while Boston College continues to struggle, now losing five of six.

NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):

1. Olivier Hanlan (SO, Boston College): G, 6-4, 190

2. Juvonte Reddic (SR, VCU): F/C, 6-9, 250

3. Ryan Anderson (JR, Boston College): PF, 6-8, 220

4. Briante Weber (JR, VCU): G, 6-2, 165

5. Treveon Graham (JR, VCU): G/F, 6-5, 220

–

1. Olivier Hanlan — G, 6-4, 190
Sophomore, 21 years old (at time of Draft)

Season (35.6 mpg): 19.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 8.3 FTA

Game: 17 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 7 turnovers

Outlook: Last season’s ACC Freshman of the Year, Hanlan is an aggressive combo guard capable of scoring in a variety of ways. He can shoot from the perimeter—both with his feet set and creating off the dribble—and has a strong frame to attack the basket. Hanlan has a quick first step and big frame to finish at the hoop. He’s shooting 69% in the paint this season, to go along with an excellent 1.55 points per attempt. He also accumulates free throws, attempting 8 per game.

His 3-point shooting has dropped from 39% to 31% this season, but his true shooting percentage has increased from 57% to 59%, and he is a clear perimeter threat in college. Hanlan is also a solid rebounder, something that should translate to the NBA.

However, his biggest NBA question mark for me is determining where he fits at the next level. Is he a shooting guard or a point guard? Hanlan could probably play alongside another ball handler due to his 6-4 frame and off the dribble ability, but I’m not sold yet. I’m not sold on his point guard prospects, either, because despite his assist numbers increasing this season, his 20.7% assist percentage ranks 429th in the country.

Hanlan’s defense also concerns me. He’s 6-4 with a relatively short 6-5 wingspan – can he guard NBA shooting guards? Furthermore, on film he appears to stays upright in his stance, and sometimes lacks the lateral quickness needed at the NBA level.

Overall, an undefined position gives me pause, but Hanlan’s scoring ability is nonetheless impressive. I still don’t fully understand his game, so I’d like to see him again this season. If he can continue to score while also increasing his assist numbers—and if he can lead BC to a few ACC victories in the process—Hanlan NBA’s potential will become more transparent to me.

Scoring Ability

Video: Outside Shooting

Video: Driving

Video: Spot-Up

Passing

Video: Assists

Defense

Video: Containing Penetration

Video: Perimeter Defense

2. Juvonte Reddic — F/C, 6-9, 250
Senior, 22 years old

Season (26.2 mpg): 11.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG

Game: 14 points, 8 rebounds

Outlook: Reddic impacted the game with his athleticism and energy around the basket. He didn’t showcase any advanced moves on offense, per se, but he finalized several dunks in half court and transition. He also displayed scoring ability near the rim, and was a noticeable force on the glass, finishing with 8 rebounds. His 1.52 points per offensive rebound ranks in the 93rd percentile of all players.

Looking at his statistics and watching film, it seems Reddic is more high energy than skilled. He has the grittiness and athleticism of, say, Udonis Haslem, and could potentially fill a similar role at the next level. However, he doesn’t have the corner jump shot—or any jump shot, really—of Haslem, so that comparison is far fetched. Right now, Reddic is best as a high-energy rebounder with a developing post game.

But at 6-9, he’ll need to be more than an interior player in the NBA. Per Synergy, he’s shooting 35% on jump shots this season, but on film it’s clear he’s worse than his percentage. His .74 points per jump shot is more indicative of his shooting ability. There’s a reason 75% of his shots are in the paint this season, and it’s mostly due to his poor shooting.

Overall, Reddic brings some valuable attributes to a team, some of which are intangible. If he can develop a face-up game and extend his range to 15-20 feet, he will work his way into the Draft conversation.

Video: Crashing Boards (put-backs)

Video: Developing Post-Up Game

Video: Poor Jump Shot

3. Ryan Anderson — PF, 6-8, 220
Junior, 21 years old

Season (29.8 mpg): 16.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.9 FTA

Game: 13 points, 7 rebounds

Outlook: Anderson is a versatile forward who can score anywhere inside the 3-point line. He can play either forward position, although most of his offensive production comes from 18-feet and in. Good athlete to finish with dunks and over-the-shoulder moves in the paint, and he has nimble feet to take bigger defenders off the dribble. Anderson can occasionally step out and hit a 3-pointer, but not with consistency.

Despite his wiry 220-pound frame, Anderson is a good rebounder at BC. He establishes position in the paint to battle stronger defenders, and has a nose for the ball when crashing boards from the wing.

Anderson has shown the ability to score consistently—he averaged 15 points and 8 rebounds as a sophomore—and he scored at least 20 points eight times last season. He’s continued that production this season, and despite Boston College’s overall struggles, Anderson has continued to produce.

The question marks for me are his 1) defense, 2) motor, and 3) jump shot. He won’t make the NBA as a skinny 6-8 power forward with a few around-the-basket moves; he’ll need to extend his range as a pick-and-pop threat. Also, I’m skeptical of Anderson’s upside — how much better can he get? When I watch the film, I feel like he should be averaging 22 and 12, not 16 and 7.

Defensively, Anderson stays upright in his stance and \on the perimeter, and his 220-pound frame is too frail in the post. He’s kind of stuck in no man’s land.

Overall, Anderson’s scoring ability and offensive versatility should garner NBA consideration. If he can extend his range to the 3-point line and improve defensively, he has a chance to carve out a role as a versatile stretch-forward.

Scoring Versatility

Shot Attempt Breakdown:

46% in the paint | 30% post-up | 19% jump shots | 5% runner

Video: Scoring around the basket / Post Up

Anderson is shooting 56% in the paint. He can dunk the ball with good lift at the rim, and can finish as a pick-and-roll screener. He’s definitely skilled in the paint, but his skinny frame makes it hard for him to initiate—and finish through—contact.

Video: Around the Basket

Video: Post-Up

Video: Shooting (decent)

Anderson is shooting 33% on jump shots this season.. not great. He needs to polish his jump shot, especially from deep.

Defense (room for improvement)

Video: Perimeter Defense (Closing Out)

Anderson does a good job closing out on shooters, but he stays upright in his stance and gets beat off the dribble. The video below is a decent (at best) portrayal of this.

Video: Interior Defense

Anderson is allowing 1.2 points per possession in post-up situations, ranking in the bottom 80th percentile nationally. He’s too skinny right now to compete with bigger, stronger, more physical players.

4. Briante Weber — G, 6-2, 165
Junior, 21 years old

Season (29 mpg): 8.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 3.9 SPG
7.7% steal percentage (1st nationally)

Game: 6 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 steals

Outlook: Weber may be the fiercest in-your-face defender in all of college basketball. He draped the Boston College guards defensively, and never relented. He’s 6-2 but has long arms, similar to Rajon Rondo in his makeup.

As a prospect, Weber is very raw offensively, but has terrific defensive instincts. His 7.7% steal percentage is highest in the country, and even though VCU’s system is conducive to forcing turnovers, his talents are apparent on film. He has long arms to deflect passes and reach for steals, and his length helps him recover from behind when he gets beat.

Offensively, though, Weber has a long way to go. Frankly, he has very poor shooting mechanics right now. He also converts less than half his attempts at the basket. Opposing defenses often leave Weber open to shoot, and he still struggles to convert.

Also, how does he fit in traditional offensive sets? It’s tough for me to evaluate these VCU players when they’re playing in such an unconventional (albeit enjoyable) system.

Overall, Weber needs to focus on developing his offensive skills. But he’s young for his age, and his physical tools are rare for a point guard — length, explosiveness, motor, defensive instincts. If he can refine his jump shot—and that’s a huge “if”—I think Weber has a chance to play in the NBA.

Video: Transition makes

Video: Transition misses

Video: Steals

Video: Poor Shooting

Video: Assists (court vision)

5. Treveon Graham — G/F, 6-5, 220
Junior, 21 years old

Season (28.3 mpg): 15.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.9 APG

Game: 13 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists

Outlook: Standing at 6-5, Graham is an aggressive guard who “bullied” his way to the rim on several possessions. He didn’t showcase athleticism or quickness, but he used his strength to attack the basket for points and rebounds.

Looking at his statistics, Graham can shoot from the perimeter as well as finish in the paint.

He’s shooting 36% from 3-point range (5 attempts per game), which is OK, and converts 67% of his attempts around the basket. However, his “around the basket” stats may be misleading because he gets a lot of baskets at the rim in transition.

Defensively, I’m not sure what position Graham will guard at the next level. He’s a tough defender, but he’s slow laterally, and will probably struggle to contain penetration at the next level.

Overall, Graham is a strong scorer and rebounder on the college level, particularly inside the paint. He’ll always fill up the box score playing in VCU’s system. Going forward, I would like to see how his jump shot and perimeter defense progress, because he’ll be playing on the wing should he make the NBA.

Video: Shooting

Video: Around the basket

Video: Put-Backs (Crashing boards)

Video: “Runner”

Video: Defending Shooters

Video: Fouls (gambling on defense)

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full Box Score

Scouting Report: UConn vs. Eastern Washington

Connecticut 82, Eastern Washington 65

Saturday, December 28, 2013 | 1 p.m. EST | Webster Bank Arena (Bridgeport, CT)

Connecticut 11-1, Eastern Washington 5-6

Recap: Five UConn players scored in double figures to give the Huskies a well-balanced victory over Eastern Washington. Shabazz Napier controlled the tempo of game, finishing with 15 points and 9 assists; Ryan Boatright had 14; Niels Giffey had 13; transfer Lasan Kromah added 12; and sophomore Phillip Nolan scored a career-high 11 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 2 blocks. Eastern Washington guard Tyler Harvey kept the Eagles within striking distance, but striking distance was the best it could do. UConn exposed Eastern Washington’s lack of size, scoring a season-high 40 points in the paint. This was a valuable final tune up before both teams begin conference play.

Previous UConn Evaluations:

Evaluation 1
Evaluation 2

NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):

1. Amida Brimah (FR, UConn): C, 7-0, 217 (Long way to go – purely potential right now)

2. Shabazz Napier (SR, UConn): PG, 6-1, 170

3. DeAndre Daniels (JR, UConn): SF, 6-8, 195

4. Omar Calhoun (SO, UConn): G, 6-5, 195

5. Ryan Boatright (JR, UConn): G, 6-0, 170

Played Well, But Not “NBA Caliber” Right Now

6. Niels Giffey (SR, UConn): SF, 6-7, 205

7. Lasan Kromah (SR, UConn): SF, 6-6, 200

8. Tyler Harvey (SO, Eastern Washington): G, 6-4, 180

9. Venky Jois (SO, Eastern Washington): F, 6-7, 230

10. Phil Nolan (SO, UConn): PF/C, 6-10, 210

NBA Prospects:

1. Amida Brimah — C, 7-0, 217
Freshman, 20 years old

Season (12.9 mpg): 2.8 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 2.4 fouls

Game: 0 points, 2 rebounds

Outlook: After observing Brimah during practice Friday and the game Saturday, it’s clear he’s very raw right now. He’s an elite shot-blocker at the college level, averaging 2.8 blocks in 13 minutes per game, but that’s the extent of his “elite” attributes.

He’s a project offensively, essentially trying to develop an offensive game from scratch (Brimah started playing basketball only three years ago). At practice Friday, Brimah constantly worked on a hook shot over both shoulders, and it seems the coaching staff is intent on making this his go-to move.

Brimah is No. 1 on this list because of physical gifts (7-footer), nimble feet, and eagerness to learn. He runs the floor quickly and takes long strides, and he’s a menacing shot blocker. But he has a long way to go if he wants to be an NBA player: He’ll need to add at least 20 pounds of muscle, and start developing some semblance of an offensive game. The coaching staff at UConn continues to compare Brimah to Hasheem Thabeet, saying they expect Brimah to develop offensively and enter the Draft after his junior season.

Coach Ollie has inserted Brimah into the starting lineup for the last three games, but he’s only played a combined 26 minutes in those games. Brimah’s minutes are inconsistent right now, and will likely vary on a game-to-game basis.

Video: Individual Defense (Blocks)

Brimah has good length and timing to block shots from various spots on the floor. He can also become a terrific help defender in this regard. He’s posting an exceptional 20.8% block percentage (the percentage of opponent field goal attempts Brimah blocks when he’s on the floor).

Video: (Struggling) Post Defense

Brimah is allowing 1.42 points per post-up, which ranks in the bottom 96th percentile nationally, per Synergy Sports. Those statistics are a bit misleading due to the small sample size, but on film it’s apparent that physically mature can take advantage of Brimah on the interior. Opposing big men dip their shoulder into Brimah, gaining leverage and getting close to him as to neutralize his shot blocking threat. He needs to add muscle to hold his ground, and needs to stop gambling for blocks on every play.

Video: Fouling

Brimah is averaging 2.4 fouls in only 13 minutes per game.

Video: Athleticism (raw)

OVERALL

Brimah will like stay at least two more years in college, but the monitoring process begins now. He’s a 7-footer with great defensive instincts and a gradual offensive game. If he can develop a few go-to moves on offense—and if he can put on 25 pounds—he has a chance to be a pro.

2. Shabazz Napier — PG, 6-1, 170
Senior, 22 years old

Season (34 mpg): 15.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 SPG

Game: 15 points, 9 assists

Outlook: Napier is one of the most consistent players—and leaders—in the country. He contributes in nearly every statistical category, has a National Championship under his belt, and has a tremendous basketball IQ across the board. Skill-wise, Napier has some attributes that I think could translate to the NBA. Tight handle, excellent first step and the ability to quickly change direction. He has a developing jumper, and defensively he’s held his own vs. bigger guards this season.

The question marks with Napier stem from a 6-1 frame, below-average explosiveness, and a penchant to jack up questionable shots.

STRENGTHS

Court Vision

He averages 6 assists per game, and his 33.6% assist percentage (the number of teammate field goals Napier assisted while he’s on the floor) ranks 44th in the country.

Yes, Napier is a good passer, but he also doesn’t excel in any specific facet of passing — it seems he has better “open court” vision than, say, pick-and-roll passing, or drive-and-kick passing. Thus, I think his assist numbers are a somewhat misleading. His court vision is certainly a strength, but it should be taken with a grain of salt because Napier is a scorer by nature.

Video: Court Vision

Pick-and-Roll Scoring

Napier is shifty with the ball. He can change direction on a dime and attack the paint with ease. He also has a smooth pull-up jump shot, using his handle to break down the defense and then pull-up at the opportune moment.

Video: Scoring

Video: Pick-and-Roll

Napier is scoring a solid .95 points per pick-and-roll possession. Balanced pick and roll attack — takes jumper on 51% of P-n-Rs, and drives on 30% of them.

He reads the defense, creates an opening and capitalizes. Some say he’s too prone to shooting on the P-n-R, but I think it’s a positive because at 6-1 he’ll have to shoot from outside should he make the NBA.

Isolation Scoring

19% of Napier’s offense is in isolation, where he’s posting a solid 1.03 points per attempt. He shoots a jumper on 60% of his isolation attempts, and drives to the basket 40% of the time.

He’s effective either way, which is why I think Napier will be able to score in the NBA. My concern is, if you’re a 6-1 scoring guard, you need to be a terrific athlete, something Napier is not.

Video: Isolation (jump shot)

Napier rocks defenders to sleep and then pulls up for a jumper. He can do this against bigger defenders as well, as evidenced by his work on 6-5 swingman CJ Wilcox below. In both shooting and driving situations, Napier never loses his handle or footing – he has great control.

It’s quite impressive, at least on the college level.

Video: Isolation (drives)

Napier keeps his dribble low, and has the full arsenal in terms of ball handling — crossover, stutter-step, head fakes…everything. He’s reminiscent of his former teammate Kemba Walker in this facet of the game.

However, he doesn’t have the athleticism that Kemba had. Can his craftiness compensate at the next level?

Off Screens

Video: Off Screens

Although only 6% of Napier’s shot attempts come off screens, he’s shown the ability run off screens and free himself for a shot/drive. I think this is something Kevin Ollie will use more as the season progresses, maybe allowing Ryan Boatright to handle the ball and then let Napier run off perimeter.

Napier is effective off screens mostly because he can finish when he has momentum. He catches the ball, pivots forward and zips through the defense with ease.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Shot Selection? / Athleticism and Explosiveness

Napier is prone to taking off-balance, ill-advised shots early in possessions. He falls in love with jumpers, and although it works from time to time, this “tunnel vision” is not efficient. While it’s true Napier has to take these shots for UConn to be successful, more prudent shot selection is necessary if he wants to play in the League.

He lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you’d ideally want to see in a 6-1 guard. The reason that, say, Nate Robinson or Ty Lawson are successful is because they have extraordinary athletic gifts (jumping/speed). Napier is not an exceptional athlete.

Containing Penetration

Napier isn’t a great man-to-man defender. Quicker guards get him off balance and can penetrate against him. This may be the biggest concern—can he guard NBA point guards?

3. DeAndre Daniels — SF, 6-8, 195
Junior, 22 years old

Season (28.2 mpg): 13.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 50% shooting

Game: 8 points, 4 rebounds

Outlook: After averaging 21 points and 9 rebounds during the last four games of his sophomore season, Daniels hasn’t fully capitalized the way I thought he would this year.

He has NBA size (6-8, 7-foot wingspan) and versatility, and I think he has more upside than most other small forwards, but Daniels needs to play with more aggression and intensity if he’s ever going to realize his upside.

Daniels is both skilled and versatile offensively—he has the athleticism to score in transition, and the skill to score in spot-up situations. He’s presumably in rare group of players who can shoot 43% from 3-point range and 65% around the basket. He’s taken the biggest stride in his interior face-up game. However, he still lacks a mean streak, and disappears for long stretches of time.

Defensively, he can guard both shooting guards and small forwards. His two-way potential is very intriguing.

In terms of improvement, Daniels has to 1) continue developing a few “go to” moves on the interior, 2) improve his handle on the perimeter, 3) add muscle to his 195 pound frame, and 4) play with more aggression. Bigger players often bully Daniels, which is frustrating because it’s difficult to evaluate his skills when he automatically gets out-muscled.

STRENGTHS

Offensive Versatility

Video: Versatility as a Screener

20% of Daniel’s baskets come as a pick-and-roll screener, where he’s posting a solid 1.11 points per possession. He’s effective because of his versatility — he can both “roll to the hoop” or “pop to the perimeter,\” which creates mismatches. He’s also showcased the ability to put those two attributes together — Daniels often pop to the perimeter, then drive to the basket.

Video: Spot-Up

Slow release is a little concerning for me.

Video: Cuts and Transition

Daniels doesn’t need the ball to be effective, which makes him even more valuable as a scorer. He’s a deft slasher who catches the ball in stride and finishes at the basket.

Video: 3-Point Shooting

Perhaps the most noticeable improvement in Daniels’ game has been his outside shooting. He shot 24% from 3-point range as a freshman, 30% as a sophomore, and now 43% as a junior. Slow release, but he’s more confident and his improvement is apparent.

Perimeter Defense

Daniels is holding opponents to 27% shooting on jump shots. His 7-foot wingspan allows him to play off his man but still contest. Daniels needs to get stronger, but he has the length to defend NBA small forwards.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Interior Game

Video: Post-Up Struggles

Daniels’ skinny frame makes it hard for him to establish himself in the paint. Because of this, he often fades away as to avoid contact and get a clean look at the basket

Right now, Daniels’ back-to-the-basket game is a work in progress. He’s clearly uncomfortable, and doesn’t pose a consistent threat. Adding muscle will make it easier.

Video: Developing Interior Game

OVERALL

Daniels is a skilled forward with NBA size and versatility. He can be effective from various spots on the floor, and can defend multiple positions. The problem is, he often disappears for long periods of time—even for an entire half. He certainly has the talent and versatility, but he needs to string together a series of productive performances.

4. Omar Calhoun — G, 6-5, 195
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (21.3 mpg): 8.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 29% from 3-point range

Game: 12 points, 6 rebounds

Outlook: I first saw Calhoun as a high school senior, where he flourished at point guard and scored 36 points vs. Archie Goodwin. I thought he would have an opportunity to handle the ball at UConn, but that hasn’t been the case. His ball handling is not at a level where he can create for himself, let alone command an offense.

Thus, Calhoun’s been relegated to the wing, where he tries to drive and finish at the rim. But his jump shot continues to hold him back. He seemed to be clicking earlier in the year, but has regressed and has been removed from UConn’s starting lineup the past two games.

Aggressive guard who finishes through contact, but needs to improve his jump shot, and needs to find an identity on defense.

If he can correct his jump shot, Calhoun has potential to be a strong lead guard in college, and an NBA prospect as a junior/senior.

Video: Scoring (recent)

Video: Off the Dribble Struggles

Video: Missed Field Goals

Defending

Calhoun’s 6-5 frame, quick feet and physicality allow him to guard all three perimeter positions. He can dig into his man, and has the length to contest perimeter shots. However, he’s slow on his feet, and struggles to contain quicker guards.

5. Ryan Boatright — PG, 6-0, 170
Junior, 21 years old

Season (30 mpg): 12.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.5 APG

Game: 14 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists

Outlook: Boatright is a lead guard who can play on- and-off the ball in college. He has a scorer’s mentality despite his small frame. His crossover dribble—along with deceptive athleticism—is his best skill, and it’s what keeps bigger defenders on their toes. He gets into the lane and finishes despite his size. He’s also improved his 3-point shooting, though not with consistency.

All things considered, scoring is not an issue with Boatright — but strength and size are. At 6-feet, can he play point guard in the NBA? He’s relieved Shabazz Napier in “running the team” duties this season, but only periodically. Also, Boatright often seems like he’s “looking out for himself,” but that won’t fly in the NBA.

Maybe he can be a spark-plug reserve in the NBA—similar to, say, JJ Barea—but I’m not sure. If he can finish around the basket with more consistency, Boatright will make a case as a spark-plug scorer who can distribute the basketball when needed.

STRENGTHS

Scoring (Shooting, Driving, Finishing in Transition … well-rounded)

Video: Scoring

Boatright is quick and shifty around the basket, and can contort his body to convert difficult layups and runners (1.23 points per possession on runners ranks in the top 3% nationally). As mentioned, his perimeter shooting has also improved this season. A killer crossover helps in both driving and shooting the basketball.

Video: Recent scoring

Video: Spot-up Scoring

Video: Isolation Scoring

Video: Transition Scoring

Boatright is good, but not great, finishing in transition. He’s inconsistent, in the sense that his makes and misses consist of the same shot attempts. Like, sometimes he converts difficult layups in the open court, but other times he’ll miss those same shots. Thus, he’s shooting 51% in transition, and posting an average 1.2 points per transition attempt.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Pick-and-Roll Passing

30% of Boatright’s offense comes out of the pick-and-roll.

He doesn’t set up teammates for open looks, as nearly 85% of his pick-and-roll passes are to spot-up shooters, which in reality means a simple pass to the wing. Boatright posts a 24.6% assist rate, compared to Shabazz Napier’s 33.6 rate. This is partially because Napier is UConn’s primary ball handler, but it doesn’t absolve Boatright. He needs to get into the paint and create for the screener/big man, to show he’s more than a scorer.

Video: Pick-and-Roll Passing (every P-n-R pass he’s thrown this season)

Containing Penetration

Boatright clearly has trouble containing penetration. He struggles to maintain balance, getting beat off the dribble, in addition to looking out of position off the ball. Opponents are only shooting 42% against Boatright “around the basket,” but on film it’s clear Boatright gets beat, regardless of whether or not the offensive player converts the basket.

Video: Containing Penetration

–

Played Well, But Not “NBA Caliber” Right Now

6. Niels Giffey — G/F, 6-7, 205
Senior, 23 years old

Season (21.1 mpg): 9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 64% 3-pointers

Game: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, 3 blocks

Outlook: Giffey is a terrific and efficient 3-point shooter with athleticism. He can’t create for himself, though, and is wiry thin for a 6-7 forward.

Giffey is shooting an exceptional 63% on jump shots this season, and his 1.833 points per jump shot attempt is the best mark in college basketball. Furthermore, his 1.4 points per possession overall ranks second in the country (min. 50 possessions). Giffey does his job, never complains, and as Coach Ollie says, he’s the “consummate pro.”

But at 23 years old and lacking a well-rounded skill-set, can he possibly get drafted? I honestly have no idea, but I’m including him in this list solely because of his shooting ability. I don’t see the skill or upside for the NBA, but I can’t say that Giffey isn’t worth second round consideration. He falls short in most categories, but he’s a shooter with solid athleticism, and presumably there’s some value in that.

Video: Shooting

Video: Deceptive Athleticism

Video: Scoring (recent)

7. Lasan Kromah — SF, 6-6, 200
Senior, 22 years old

Season (18.1 mpg): 6.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG

Game: 4 points, 4 rebounds

*UConn graduate transfer (via George Washington). Kromah had a terrific rookie season at George Washington (2009-10), earning A-10 rookie honors, but he suffered a lisfranc injury during his sophomore season that drastically set him back.

Outlook: Kromah is a unique player because he possess a lot of “good” skills, but doesn’t distinguish himself in any facet of the game. If you had to narrow it down, though, it’s Kromah’s instinctive ability to get to the rim that stands out.

He’s a 6-6 wing who gets to the rim on the college level. He shoots 51% from the field and always plays with energy.

Again – solid across the board, but doesn’t stand out in any facet of the game.

Video: Transition

Video: Spot-Up Points

Video: Isolation Struggles

8. Tyler Harvey — G, 6-4, 180
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (35.6 mpg): 20.2PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.9 APG

Game: 19 points, 4 rebounds

*Harvey redshirted as a freshman, so this is actually his third season at Eastern Washington.

Outlook: Harvey is a wiry thin scoring guard with terrific range on his jump shot. He’s one of the best scorers in the country regardless of conference, as he’s scored 30 at Weber State, 28 at Washington, 30 vs. Seattle, 20 at St. Mary’s and 19 at UConn. The numbers are a bit inflated, though, as Harvey attempts 20% of his team’s shots at 14 attempts per game.

Yes he can score, but he’s not an NBA player.

Firstly, he doesn’t appear to have NBA athleticism. Secondly, most of his shots were off-balance, imprudent attempts. He’s also overly reliant on his 3-point shot, and it’s tough to evaluate his driving ability when 75% of his shots are jumpers.

If he can continue to score the ball at a high level, and then pick up his assist numbers, maybe we’ll revisit down the line.

STRENGTHS

Shooting / Isolation

He’s not an NBA athlete, and doesn’t have great size, but Harvey is crafty with the ball and makes plays.

Video: Shooting

Video: Isolation

Video: Questionable Shot Selection

9. Venky Jois — F, 6-7, 230
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (29.9 mpg): 12.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.7 APG

Game: 2 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists

Outlook: The Big Sky Freshman of the Year last season, Jois is a strong and athletic post presence with a penchant for rebounding. Developing touch around the basket, but his range beyond 10 feet is limited right now — 75% of his shots have come in the paint this season. He didn’t play well vs. UConn, but he has proven his rebounding ability and overall talent in the past.

STRENGTHS

“Around the Basket” Scoring

75% of Jois’ attempts this season have come in the paint, and he’s posting a solid a 1.13 points per play “around the basket.” He has the strength to finish through contact, and often will put his head down and attack the rim.

Put-Backs (Crashing boards)

He averages 8.1 rebounds per game, and when you look at the film, Jois is always around the basket when a rebound is imminent. He competes with bigger players due to his combination of strength and athleticism down low.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Shooting

Jois lacks polish outside the paint. He’s posting a below average .68 points per jump shot attempt, which ranks in the bottom 70th percentile nationally. He’ll attempt a 3-pointer at times, but he’s struggled to shoot the ball thus far in the season.

10. Phillip Nolan — PF/C, 6-10, 210
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (14.3 mpg): 4.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.5 fouls

Game: 11 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks

Outlook: Simply put, Nolan lacks the muscle and skill right to be considered a prospect right now. But he’s included here because he’s athletic and young. Nolan recorded a career-high 11 points to go along with 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and contagious energy. His offense production is solely on “put-backs,” and he is raw in terms of creating for himself.

Again: right now Nolan is not an NBA prospect, but with two and a half years remaining, his development is worth monitoring.

Video: Offensive Put-Backs

Video: Post Defense

Video: Raw Offensively

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full Box Score

Opposition Report: Eastern Washington Eagles

UConn vs. Eastern Washington: Saturday, December 28, 1:00 p.m. EST

Opposition Report: Eastern Washington Eagles

Record: 5-5

Notable Wins: Boston University (80-68), LIU (102-70)
Notable Defeats: Washington (92-80), Saint Mary’s (93-65), Seton Hall (92-70)

Offense: 1.06 points per possession (165th nationally)
Defense: 1.08 points allowed per possession (260th nationally)

Keys to the Game:

1) Keep Venky Jois off the glass (8.1 rebounds per game; 1.2 points per play “around the basket”)

2) Contain Tyler Harvey, and force him to take contested shots (has range on jump shot; he carries Eastern Washington against good teams)

… I don’t think there’s a need to over-complicate the “keys to the game.”

Quick Thoughts: Eastern Washington is a small-ball oriented team that produces a lot of baskets from 3-point range. 51% of the team’s shots are “jump shots”, and 73% of those jump shots are from behind the arc. In some sense, the Eagles live and die from 3-point range.

3-point shooting this season:

Wins:
6-20 (30%)
10-26 (39%)
10-18 (56%)
11-17 (65%)
9-19 (47%)

Average percentage: 47.4%

Losses:
11-26 (42%)
4-21 (19%)
4-23 (17%)
9-27 (33%)
10-27 (37%)

Average percentage: 29.6%

In order for Eastern Washington to compete in this game, it will need a strong performance from sophomore guard Tyler Harvey. Harvey attempts 20% of Eastern Washington’s shots — he’s a crafty guard who can shoot from deep but also penetrate the lane. Harvey has single-handedly carried the Eagles in several games, particularly against “good” teams. He’s scored 28 points vs. Washington, 21 vs. Boston, 21 vs. UC Irvine, 30 vs. Seattle and 20 vs. Saint Mary’s.

However, Harvey is prone to taking (or forcing) “bad shots” early in possessions. This is both a curse and a blessing for the Eagles.

Alongside Harvey on the perimeter are juniors Drew Brandon and Parker Kelly. Both players have range on their jump shots, and are not hesitant to shoot from deep.

On the interior, the Eagles start Australian import Venky Jois, a 6-7 post player who is a tenacious rebounder and also has a nice touch near the rim. Jois is a good player who could probably play in any league. They also start 6-10 Martin Seiferth, but he only plays 19 minutes per game.

In summary, the Eagles’ tallest player who plays at least 20 minutes per game is 6-foot-7. They are a small team. Tyler Harvey needs to be accounted for on the perimeter, and Venky Jois needs to be accounted for down low (especially with regards to rebounding). Parker Kelly and Drew Brandon capitalize on the attention Harvey draws — 60% of Parker Kelly’s shots are catch-and-shoot, and 35% of Brandon’s shots are catch-and-shoot.

Eastern Washington is clearly undermanned in this game, but they maximize the value of the 3-point shot, and can score in bunches. If UConn’s guards can play solid perimeter defense and keep Venky Jois off the glass, the Huskies should be successful.

–

Eastern Washington Eagles

Scoring Distribution: 49.5% 2-Pointers | 34.1% 3-Pointers | 16.4% Free Throws

Shot Attempt Breakdown: 51.2% Jump Shots | 33.4% Around Basket | 8.1% Runner | 7.3% Post-Ups

Key Players (no particular order):

Venky Jois — 13.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 APG
Sophomore, F, 6-7, 230

- Big Sky Freshman of the Year last season
- Strong and athletic post presence who is a great rebounder.
- Has touch around the basket, and can create for himself.
- Struggles to shoot the ball, and doesn’t have range beyond 10 feet (75% of his shots have come in the paint)

Put-Backs / Crashing Boards

As mentioned, Jois is a big-bodied post player who cleans on the glass. He averages 8.1 rebounds per game, and when you look at the film, it’s clear that once a shot goes up he positions himself near the basket. He can compete with bigger players due to his combination of strength and athleticism down low. He can rebound on both sides of the ball.

“Around the Basket” Scoring

75% of Jois’ attempts this season have come in the paint. And he’s posting a solid a 1.17 points per play “around the basket.” He has the strength to finish through contact, and often will put his head down and attack the rim.

Poor Shooting

However, Jois doesn’t have much touch outside the paint. He’s posting a below average .68 points per jump shot attempt, which ranks in the bottom 80th percentile nationally. He sometimes receives the ball on the perimeter, and will even attempt 3-pointers, but he’s struggled to shoot the ball thus far in the season.

Tyler Harvey — 19.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.9 APG
Sophomore, PG, 6-4, 180

- Eastern Washington’s primary scorer and best player
- 73% of his shot attempts are 3-pointers (averaging 8 attempts per game)
- Can run off screens, albeit he doesn’t do so frequently

Shooting

73% of Harvey’s attempts this season have been jump shots, where his 1.1 points per possession ranks in the 75th percentile nationally. The lefty can create a shot with ease, and can score in bunches. He’s not a great athlete, and doesn’t have great size, but he’s crafty with the ball and makes plays. Can also create for himself one-on-one, as he’s shooting 47% in isolation situations.

He attempts 8 three-pointers per game. As mentioned, he can go off in big games — 28 points vs. Washington, 21 vs. Boston, 21 vs. UC Irvine, 30 vs. Seattle and 20 vs. Saint Mary’s.

Isolation

Attacking the Paint

Although his game is predicated on outside shooting, Harvey can also penetrate the lane. He has soft touch on his runner, and can finish at the rim. The stats back it up, too — he’s shooting 71% finishing “around the basket.” However, I’m not sure he’s faced a shot blocker like Amida Brimah, or the athleticism of Phil Nolan/DeAndre Daniels.

Shot Selection

I’m not certain about this, but on film it seems Harvey often takes ill-advised shots early in possessions. If he finds an inch of separation, he’ll take the shot. Harvey can convert difficult shots, but at times “difficult” transcends into poor shot selection.

Parker Kelly — 10.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.4 APG
Junior, G, 6-4, 195

- Good shooter with range on his jump shot (80% of attempts are jump shots)
- 60% of attempts are catch-and-shoot; only 13% off the dribble
- Can score in bunches from outside

Video: Good Shooter (mostly catch-and-shoot)

Video: Spot-Up Misses (mostly off the dribble)

Scouting Report: St. John’s vs. Syracuse

Syracuse 68, St. John’s 63

Sunday, December 15, 2013 | 12:00 p.m. EST | Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)

Syracuse 10-0, St. John’s 6-3

Recap: St. John’s gave No. 2-ranked Syracuse a run for its money, but Orange senior CJ Fair (21 points, 5 rebounds) converted several “nail in the coffin” jump shots down the stretch to seal the victory. This game was loaded with NBA prospects—who all rose to the occasion and competed their tails off—but to me, the story of the game was the battle between freshmen guards Tyler Ennis and Rysheed Jordan. Ennis (21 points, 6 assists, 2 steals) quarterbacked his team throughout, displaying the ability to attack the rim. Jordan’s defensive prowess stood out, as well as his long arms and terrific open court ability. Syracuse sophomore Jerami Grant continued to showcase his rapid development, and all things considered, this was one of the most competitive college games to date this season.

Previous St. John’s Evaluation

Steve Lavin (Head Coach, St. John’s): 310-505-9439 (cell)

NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):

1) Jerami Grant (SO, Syracuse): SF, 6-8, 210

2) Rysheed Jordan (FR, St. John’s): PG, 6-4, 185

3) Tyler Ennis (FR, Syracuse): PG, 6-2, 180

4) Jakarr Sampson (SO, St. John’s): SF, 6-8, 205

5) CJ Fair (SR, Syracuse): SF/PF, 6-8, 205

Tier 2

6) Sir’Dominic Pointer (JR, St. John’s): SF, 6-5, 198

7) Chris Obekpa (SO, St. John’s): F, 6-9, 225

8) Rakeem Christmas (JR, Syracuse): PF/C, 6-9, 225

Not “There” Right Now

9) DaJuan Coleman (SO, Syracuse): PF/C, 6-9, 290

10) Trevor Cooney (SO, Syracuse): SG, 6-4, 185

11) D’Angelo Harrison (JR, St. John’s): G, 6-3, 210

12) Orlando Sanchez (SR, 25 years old, St. John’s): F, 6-9, 220

13) Phil Greene IV (JR, St. John’s): G, 6-2, 185

—-

NBA Prospects

1. Jerami Grant — Sophomore, 20 years old (at time of Draft)
SF, 6-9, 210

Season (26.2 mpg): 12.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 APG
54% field goal percentage

Game (34 min): 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists

Outlook: Grant made headlines with his improvement this past summer, when he was selected for the USA U19 National Team (before unfortunately having to sit out due to illness). He still has a long way to go, but it’s clear Grant has drastically developed since last season.

STRENGTHS

Proven Development

Freshman: 14.3 MPG, 3.9 PPG, 3 RPG
.68 PPP on Spot-Up attempts, .97 PPP on offensive rebounds/put-backs

Video: Spot-Up Last Season

Sophomore: 26.2 MPG, 12.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG
1.1 PPP on Spot-Up attempts, 1.7 PPP on offensive rebounds/put-backs

Video: Spot-Ups This Season

Elite Athleticism

Standing at 6-8, Grant is a freakishly athletic combo forward who impacts the game on both ends of the floor. He plays with great activity and energy, and has added muscle to his frame which allows him to score and rebound from various spots. Vertically, he’s ahead of his peers. This is apparent when blocking shots, and also when rebounding. His 1.69 point per offensive rebound ranks in the 97th percentile nationally. He’s also posting a solid 8.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. On film, it’s clear Grant is an elite athlete with great rebounding potential.

Video: Athletic Blocks

Video: Wing Rebounding (Crashing Boards)

Slasher

While 18% of Grant’s offense comes off offensive rebounds, 17% comes off cuts, where he’s also been excellent this season. This is another way Grant uses his athleticism and developing touch.

Video: Slashing

Transition Potential

Considering he’s an elite athlete with a high motor, Grant is a threat in transition. He needs to develop more of a “touch” around the rim (he can’t just rely on dunking the ball every time he jumps toward the basket), but the potential is there. The potential is also there defensively, where Grant has good timing to pin down shots in transition.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Offensive Moves / Shooting Range

Grant is an all-world athlete, but right now he’s still very raw in terms of creating shots for himself. He’s posting a below average .69 points per isolation attempt, which ranks in the bottom 70th percentile nationally. Grant’s limited offensive repertoire is apparent on film. He either pulls up for a jump shot, or puts his head down and tries to overwhelm opponents with his athleticism, which won’t suffice in the NBA.

Video: Isolation

In addition to developing some go-to moves, Grant needs to extend his jump shot. He’s currently 0-for-4 from three-point range this season. His form is flat and inconsistent. There’s not much bend in his knees—he jumps straight up and releases the ball. If he can develop his jump shot, I see some Thaddeus Young in Jerami Grant.

Video: Shooting (small snippet)

OVERALL

Grant’s skill level has a chance to catch up with his all-world athleticism. If that ends up being the case, well, I think his long-term potential is as promising as any small forward in the country. His combination of athleticism and graceful touch are matched by few others in college.

2. Rysheed Jordan — Freshman (age unknown to me)
PG, 6-4, 185

Season (18.8 mpg): 6.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.0 APG
28% FG

Game (31 min): 13 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists

**Jordan missed the team’s most recent game vs. Youngstown State, as he returned to Philadelphia to be with his ailing mother. Per ESPN.com, Coach Steve Lavin said there’s “no timetable for Jordan’s return to the team at this point.” Jordan was coming off consecutive double-figure scoring games, and played well vs. Syracuse.

*I have not been able to identify Jordan’s age. Is his age a mystery? This is mildly concerning.

–

Outlook: Statistically, Jordan has been pretty awful across the board. He’s shooting a putrid 28% from the field, is 2-for-23 on jump shot attempts, and a terrible .09% from three-point range. There isn’t a silver lining anywhere offensively, and defensively the numbers aren’t great either (opponents shooting 47% on jump shots, averaging 2.4 fouls in only 19 minutes of play, etc).

So yes, Rysheed Jordan is a big project. And I just want to make it clear: He’ll need to completely re-make his jump shot if he wants to play in the NBA.

All that being said, though, I don’t think those numbers accurately represent Rysheed Jordan’s capabilities. We should consider he plays within an unpredictable St. John’s rotation, and plays alongside hit-or-miss players (most notably D’Angelo Harrison). Against Syracuse, Jordan continued to showcase a high motor, imposing defensive ability, and terrific driving ability on offense. He also displayed a poor jump shot. He has great size for a point guard and attacks the basket with conviction. Jordan is strong enough to finish through contact, and he can routinely overpower defenders on the college level. He wisely chose when, and where, to attack Syracuse’s zone.

Video: “Points” vs. Syracuse

Video: Assists vs. Syracuse

Defensively, Jordan switched between senior forward CJ Fair and freshman point guard Tyler Ennis. Fair bested Jordan, using sound footwork and a size advantage to score over him.

Against Ennis, however, Jordan made some impressive stops. His size, length and toughness noticeably neutralized Ennis for most of the second half. If I could take away one aspect of Jordan’s performance vs. Syracuse, it was his second-half defense vs. Ennis.

Video: Defending CJ Fair, Tyler Ennis

OVERALL

Jordan has been a putrid 2-for-23 on jump shots this season…

His form looks crooked (it seems like his guide hand is often “under’ the ball” when he releases), and it’s obvious he doesn’t have confidence shooting the basketball. Heck, defenders are backing off and daring Jordan to shoot.

He’ll need to improve his shot. If he does, though, the future looks bright for Jordan. He has NBA size and length for a point guard, and has the talent to back it up. He’ll need to prove he can lead an offense, but from a talent standpoint, I see it.

Again, lots of work to be done here, and I’m not even sure how old he is. But Jordan’s NBA potential continues to stand out, and at this point I can’t dismiss it because of a poor jump shot.

3. Tyler Ennis — Freshman, 19 years old
PG, 6-2, 180

Season (31.5 mpg): 12.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 5.4 APG, 2.8 SPG
30.4% assist rate, 5.5% steal percentage

Game (39 min): 21 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds

Outlook: Of all the freshman in college basketball, it’s becoming clear Tyler Ennis will play the biggest role in his team’s success this season. He’s the quarterback and the engine of this Syracuse team. Surrounded by a handful of athletic swingmen, Ennis is the only Orange player averaging over 2 assists, and he’s always on the floor in big games—40 minutes vs. Baylor, 38 vs. Indiana, 37 vs. California, and 39 vs. St. John’s.

Through 11 games, he’s been perfect. Ennis commands the offense—and opposing defenses—with the poise and basketball IQ of a senior. Terrific two-way handle, and uses very calculated actions to attack the defense and initiate offense. This is some ahead of his time stuff—in terms of consistently making the correct “basketball play”—and it’s all predicated on Ennis’ ability to handle the basketball. He protects the ball (4.07 A/TO), but most of all, it’s his ability to turn the corner that really stands out. I think Ennis turns the corner—either getting around his man or getting around the pick-and-roll—faster than any guard in the country. He has NBA speed turning the corner. (He doesn’t appear to have NBA speed to finish around the corner, though, which we’ll get to.)

15 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists at halftime. All things considered, I wouldn’t be surprised if he enters the Draft at season’s end. All that being said, Ennis has a lot of strengths, but also areas that give me concern with regards to his NBA potential.

STRENGTHS

Pick-and-Roll (Passing and Scoring), Poise/Calm Demeanor

As mentioned, Ennis is extremely poised and under control. 28% of his plays are in the pick-and-roll this season, where he’s doing a nice job scoring (1.1 points per possession, 83rd percentile), and also distributing (30.4% assist rate is top-100 in the country). Good feel for where his teammates are; not only the screener, but the other three guys as well.

Ennis is crafty enough to finish on the college level. He can penetrate and finish with either hand.

Video: Assists (mostly Pick-and-Roll)

Video: Driving to the Hoop

Again, special ball-handling, and impressive leadership at this age.

Developing Jump Shot

Ennis has a smooth and confident release on his jump shot. Good form indicates he can become a consistent shooter. Right now, he’s much better in catch-and-shoot (60% conversion rate), than shooting off the dribble (24% conversion rate). He’s made 10 three-pointers on 23 attempts thus far, which is OK considering the small sample size.

Video: Perimeter Shooting

Quick Hands (Smart Defender)

It’s tough to evaluate Ennis’ defensive ability in Syracuse’s zone scheme.

He’s averaging a stellar 2.8 steals per game, but I’m not sure if this is a result of Syracuse’s zone or Ennis’ individual ability.

Based on the film, it seems he’s locked in, protects the middle of the zone, and contests jump shots. Problem is, he’s not very quick moving laterally, so he could perhaps struggle in man-to-man schemes.

Video: Defense (small snippet)

Upside

He’s 19, and has only played 11 games, so we’re definitely not evaluating a finished product. The question is: how much better can Ennis get? Or, In the NBA, how much basketball IQ is needed to compensate for athletic shortcomings?

I think he’s a terrific player who’s more polished than nearly all of his peers — but his unproven/not clearly apparent athleticism (struggles to finish at the rim) and height (6-2 in shoes) must be taken into account as well.

QUESTION MARKS

Athleticism? Undersized? Straight-Line Speed?

Ennis is smart, poised, talented, etc.

But can he hold up athletically in the NBA? Right now, I’m not sure either way. Rysheed Jordan’s length and athleticism flustered Ennis down the stretch. Ennis still converted a few layups because he’s very crafty, but Jordan also won some possessions.

In the clip below, Rysheed Jordan defends CJ Fair and Tyler Ennis… Jordan strips Ennis in the first play, and then defends him intermittently throughout the video.

Finishing Struggles

A combination of the question marks above—athletic shortcomings and not the fastest straight-line player—leads finishing struggles. 45.8% of Ennis’ attempts come “around the basket,” but he’s only scoring .97 points per possession on such attempts, ranking in the bottom 70th percentile nationally. On film, Ennis has a few missed dunks in there as well, which speaks to his average lift off the ground. He’s not a “bad” athlete, but he’s not as explosive as you’d ideally like.

Video: Finishing Struggles

OVERALL

Ennis is only 11 games into his college career, and this was only one game. He has all the intangibles you can ask for from a point guard, and he’s only a freshman.

Tght handle, precision passing, and consistency running a team are at an NBA level. But the jury is still undecided on his finishing ability, and athleticism on both ends of the floor. Ennis will have the ball in hands all season, so we should have a better idea before the season comes to an end.

4. Jakarr Sampson — Sophomore, 21 years old (at time of Draft)
SF, 6-8, 205

Season (28.3 mpg): 12.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 52% FG

Game (24 min): 12 points, 6 rebounds, 6-10 field goals

Outlook: As previously mentioned, Sampson is an NBA-level athlete with two-way versatility and smooth finishing ability. He can rebound from the wing and is improving off the dribble. If he can add muscle to his frame and continue to slowly extend his range, he’ll be one of the more intriguing prospects because of his bounce and activity level.

Sampson is more skilled creating off the dribble than I originally thought. Against Syracuse, he showcased the ability to create separation from his defender and rise for a jump shot. He still releases the ball from his chest, though, so I’m not sold.

Video: vs. Syracuse

He had good awareness on the glass, too.

This is not the end for evaluating Sampson. He’s developed nicely over the first half of the season — let’s see if he can continue to take steps forward. Also, it seems he’s assuming a leadership role on this St. John’s team, a sign of development off the court as well.

5. CJ Fair — Senior, 22 years old
SF/PF, 6-8, 205

Season (35.5 mpg): 17.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG

Game (36 min): 21 points, 5 rebounds

Outlook: Fair is having a terrific senior campaign. He’s scored at least 15 points in 10 of 11 games, and he continues to be a solid rebounder. Most importantly though, he’s the “go-to guy”on this Syracuse team; the offense runs through him late in games. He displayed terrific poise vs. St. John’s, and single-handedly closed the game with at least three “nail in the coffin” contested jump shots.

As an NBA prospect, he’s a versatile combo-forward with great length and athleticism. He’s a good shooter, but only in some situations — terrific mid-range, and good in catch-and-shoot situations; conversely, he really struggles to create off the dribble. Also, he clearly favors his left hand.

STRENGTHS

Face-Up (Mid-Range / Catch-and-Shoot)

You can tell Fair has put in enormous repetitions by the fact that he looks down when he operates in face-up situations. In other words, Fair will catch the ball, face up, and then patiently wait for the defender to make a movement. Once he finds that split-second window to get off a clean look, he rises for a shot…and usually makes it.

Fair is effective in the mid-range area (17 feet to the 3-point line), where he’s shooting 40%. He’s also a great catch-and-shoot presence, shooting 51%. He was unstoppable in this area vs. St. John’s.

Video: Mid-Range / Catch-and-Shoot

Creating Misdirection (Running Off Screens)

Fair is very good shooting off screens. He has good footwork to find an opening, and catches the ball in a fluid motion to rise for a shot.

Video: Off Screens

Fair is good at running off screens, but I also think this helps minimize/mask the fact that he struggles to put the ball on the floor.

Crashing Boards

Fair uses his bounce and length to crash the boards. He’s not particularly great at securing rebounds, but when he does secure a rebound, he’s almost automatic on tip-ins and quick put-back attempts.

Video: Crashing Boards

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Off the Dribble / Isolation Game

Fair isn’t a very skilled isolation player. He struggles to create off the dribble, and lacks the strength and post moves to operate with his back to the basket. His .67 points per possession in isolation situations ranks in the bottom 70th percentile nationally. He also heavily favors his left hand off the dribble.

Video: Off the Dribble Struggles

Video: Isolation Struggles

Skinny Frame

He will need to add weight while keeping his mobility as a 6-8 player. He blends in with Syracuse’s zone, but at the next level, stronger players could expose him in man-to-man situations.

OVERALL

For all of CJ Fair’s shortcomings, he has some NBA tools to work with (mid-range shooting, bounce and athleticism). If he can add muscle, develop his off the dribble skills and continue to be aggressive on the boards, he’ll have a better chance of sticking as a role player in the NBA.

Tier 2

6. Sir’Dominic Pointer — Junior, 22 years old
SF, 6-5, 205

Season (24.8 mpg): 6.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.7 SPG
22% three-point, 4.1% steal percentage

Game (29 min): 6 points, 2 rebounds, 3 steals, 5 fouls

Outlook: As I wrote following his performance vs. Bucknell:

“Standing at 6-5 with a 6-8 wingspan, Pointer is a long athlete and great competitor. Strong on-ball defender, and feeds off his defense to make plays in the open court.

Pointer’s offensive game is predicated on cutting/rebounding/spotting up in transition, but not much more. In other words, he’s been a poor shooter thus far in his carer, incapable of creating off the dribble or shooting from deep, which enables defenders to sag off and make him a non-threat in half-court possessions.”

Against Syracuse, all of this held true.

However, I can add Pointer is really starting to embrace his “x-factor” role. Although he has a broken jump shot right now, he can fill up a stat sheet (he posted 12 points, 11 assists, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks and 4 steals vs. Fordham earlier this month).

Video: “Points” vs. Syracuse

Terrific On-Ball Defender

Pointer digs in defensively. He has the size, physicality and desire to defend. He’s also consistent with his physicality.

In isolation situations, Pointer is holding opponents to .68 points per possession, which ranks in the 64th percentile nationally. Not “great” numbers, but his defensive potential is evident on film and when you watch him compete live.

Video: Isolation Defense vs. Syracuse

Underrated Court Vision?

Pointer has underrated court vision, as he can facilitate in transition and get his teammates baskets. I’m not certain about this, but I do think there’s potential in this regard.

OVERALL

Pointer still has a lot to improve on to be considered as a viable Draft candidate, but I’m intrigued by his strengths. He has a solid frame, strong defensive potential, and his intangibles carry over to other aspects of the game. He’s already a junior, so he needs to start showing some semblance of an offensive game. The last few games have been a good start, but he needs to elevate his performance even more.

7. Chris Obekpa — Sophomore, 20 years old
F, 6-9, 225

Season (23 mpg): 3.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG
21.6% block percentage (best in the country)

Game (25 min): 1 point, 3 blocks, 2 steals
0-2 FG

Outlook: I was disappointed by Obekpa’s lack of… well, everything, against Syracuse. He played 25 minutes of uninspiring basketball. When I observed him vs. Bucknell, I wondered how he’d fare against better competition, and unfortunately he failed the test vs. Syracuse.

Obekpa posted his lowest rebounding total of the season (1). Most concerning, though, was his absence defensively. He recorded three blocks, but a variety of Syracuse players—Jerami Grant, Rakeem Christmas, DaJuan Coleman, CJ Fair—had their way vs. Obekpa in the paint. I noticed that opposing players are starting to “lean into” Obekpa (as opposed to trying to shoot over him), which essentially keeps him on the ground and neutralizes his shot-blocking ability.

Obekpa’s performance vs. Syracuse made me second guess my initial impression. He didn’t appear to be that special athletically (Rakeem Chirstmas stuffed him at the rim), and he appeared somewhat undersized at 6-9. He also needs to gain weight — 225 pounds won’t suffice in the paint. It was only one game, but I’m reeling in my expectations for Obekpa. I think this game exposed his one-dimensional approach, and showed that if he isn’t impacting the game defensively, he doesn’t contribute much.

Still, he’s an elite shot blocker who’s been rebounding well this season. This is more of a drawback of expectation than an indictment—he’s still young, and there’s a lot of basketball to be played. But he needs to improve across the board if he wants to consider entering the Draft at season’s end.

Video: vs. Syracuse (very small snippet because there wasn’t much to display)

8. Rakeem Christmas — Junior, 23 years old
PF/C, 6-9, 225

Season (20.6 mpg): 5.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG

Game (20 min): 8 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks

Outlook: Christmas is a great athlete with terrific defensive potential, but we need to call it like it is here: A former McDonald’s All-American, he hasn’t really developed the way many thought he would.

2011-’12 (freshman year): 11.5 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 15.7 PER
2012-’13 (sophomore year): 20 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 16.2 PER
2013-’14 (junior year): 20 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 17.7 PER

Against St. John’s, Christmas looked good defensively. He made a few athletic plays, including blocking Chris Obekpa at the rim. He’s very comfortable in Syracuse’s zone, and because he’s mobile at 6-9, he’s interchangeable across the back line.

STRENGTHS

Around the Basket

Christmas plays with great energy. However, his offensive range is limited to five feet from the basket. His frame and high school potential indicated he’d be more than just a close-range player. But nearly 90% of his shot attempts this season have been attempted around the basket, and his numbers as an underclassmen were the same.

Impressive athleticism down low to dunk put-backs, and also has a soft touch on jump hooks over either shoulder. Establishes position well, although he lacks the muscle to do so in the NBA. Christmas has a developing post-up game, including a nice drop-step-dunk move, but he’s not a threat offensively.

Video: Around the Basket Scoring

Video: Post-Ups

Defensive Potential

Christmas stays vertical on defense, and has the bounce and length to contest shots in the paint. He ranks 53rd in the country with a 9.5% block percentage. It’s difficult to gauge man-to-man ability in Syracuse’s zone, though, so this must be taken with a grain of salt.

Video: “Spot Up” Defense

Video: Interior Defense

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Poor Rebounding

Christmas has produced pedestrian rebounding numbers throughout college (3.7 RPG this season). If you’re a big man who plays primarily in the paint, you need to have at least some rebounding ability. Not a good look here.

No Range / Not Much Offensive Skill-Set

Christmas has essentially no range or polish outside of the immediate vicinity of the basket. As mentioned, nearly 90% of his shot attempts are around the basket. He lacks the touch/feel/polish/skill right now, and if you’re 6-9, you need to be able to do more than just dunk the ball.

Video: No Range

OVERALL

He has defensive tools that make him intriguing as an NBA prospect, but I haven’t seen enough to give him any plaudits right now. If he can increase his rebounding numbers, while at least developing a back to the basket move (like, even one move), then I’ll reconsider.

But right now, plateauing at 23 years old, I just don’t see it.

Not “There” Right Now:

9. DaJuan Coleman — Sophomore, 21 years old
PF/C, 6-9, 290

Season (14.5 mpg): 5.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG

Game (10 min): 4 points, 4 rebounds, 3 fouls

Outlook: Coleman has a wide frame to bully defenders at the basket. However, right now, his range is just that — five feet and in. He establishes position well, and has the touch to finish through contact. But 90% of his shot attempts this season have been in the immediate vicinity of the basket, and that’s too limited. Coleman was expected to come in and average close to a double-double, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype thus far.

A few good games could jump start a major turnaround for Coleman. If he sheds 20 pounds, extends his range and show’s he’s lighter on his feet, then he could really maximize his girth.

Video: Put-Backs / Girth

Video: Offensive Struggles

Video: Pick-and-Roll Struggles

10. Trevor Cooney — Sophomore, 20 years old
SG, 6-4, 185

Season (29.1 mpg): 14.1 PPG
3.3 three-pointers, 49% three-point

Game (27 min): 0 points, 3 rebounds
0-3 three-point

Outlook: I don’t fully understand Cooney’s game just yet, but it seems he is a prolific shooter who plays an integral role in Syracuse’s success. He was a non-factor vs. St. John’s (D’Angelo Harrison locked him up, which is concerning considering Harrison is a poor defender), but Cooney’s overall body of work as a shooter speaks for itself.

78% of Cooney’s shot attempts are jump shots, where he’s shooting a terrific 46% from the field.

51% field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot attempts

35% field goal percentage on off the dribble attempts

Video: Jump Shot

Video: Coming off Screens

However, Other Than Shooting…

He hasn’t shown much else. He has good size at 6-4, but he’s a below-the-rim player. Furthermore, he’s not very skilled in isolation (much better catching-and-shooting than anything else), and struggles to finish around the basket. His .86 points per “around the basket” attempt ranks in the bottom 85th percentile nationally. His limitations are apparent on film as well.

When his jump shot isn’t falling (as was the case vs. St. John’s), Cooney is a non-factor and is often relegated to the bench. He also seems to shoot without thinking about the game situation. More prudent shot selection will pay dividends.

Video: Small, Not Athletic

Video: Missed Jump Shots

Video: Defense (can Cooney defend on the NBA level? he is small)

11. D’Angelo Harrison — Junior
G, 6-3, 210

Season (29.5 mpg): 19.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.0 APG

Game (35 min): 21 points, 6 rebounds
6-19 FG; 1-5 three-point

Outlook: D’Angelo Harrison was more of the same: inefficient and inconsistent with his jump shot. He took a number of ill-advised shots, and other than being a crafty scorer at the college level, he doesn’t bring much more to the table. He’s a near-terrible defender.

I don’t think he’s an NBA player. However, if he does in fact declare for the Draft this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Harrison received a training camp invite simply due to his ability to score in bunches.

Video: “Points” vs. Syracuse

Video: Fluke Rebounds

Video: Misses vs. Syracuse

12. Orlando Sanchez — Senior, 26 years old
F, 6-9, 220

Season (21.4 mpg): 6.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG

Game (28 min): 6 points, 7 rebounds

Outlook: The more I watch Sanchez, the more I’m confused. He has neither a defined position nor a consistent skill set. Sanchez shoots 3-pointers, but also tries to back his man down. He plays on the perimeter but also in the paint. He has “skills” from both the perimeter and paint, but not in a particularly impressive way. Plus, he’s going to be 26 years old at the time of the Draft.

Sanchez provides a needed scoring punch and good size for this St. John’s team, but he needs to show more for NBA consideration. I don’t think he’ll get drafted for his “ability” to take his man off the dribble from the perimeter.

What bothers me most is that Sanchez has complete freedom in St. John’s’ offense, so it’s really all on him. He’s on a stage to display his talents, but I don’t see it at this age.

Video: Scoring vs. Syracuse, Fordham

Video: Poor Rebounding Fundamentals

13. Phil Greene IV — Junior
G, 6-2, 190

Season (25.7 mpg): 9.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.5 APG
80% of attempts are jump shots; 1.25 PPP on mid-range jump shots (95th percentile)

Game (18 min): 2 points, 5 rebounds

Outlook: Greene is merely a one-dimensional player right now. His only offensive skill is his mid-range jump shot, which he relies on too much. I like his make-up as a player, but a 6-2 shooting guard who can neither shoot from deep nor penetrate the lane is very limited.

Video: One-Dimensional

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 Draft

Full Box Score

Scouting Report: North Carolina vs. Kentucky

North Carolina 82, Kentucky 77

Saturday, December 14, 2013 | 5:15 p.m. EST | Dean Smith Center (Chapel Hill, NC)

North Carolina 7-2, Kentucky 8-3

Recap: In a game that featured 56 fouls and 88 free throws, North Carolina pulled away in the second half to defeat Kentucky, 82-77. James McAdoo posted 20 points/5 rebounds/4 assists, and Marcus Paige scored 21 second-half points to pace the Tar Heels. With Julius Randle a non-factor, Kentucky shot 41 percent as a team and committed 17 turnovers. This was a great win for North Carolina, as its now defeated Louisville, Michigan State and Kentucky this season.

*North Carolina guards PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald did not play due to suspension.

*This was my second time observing both North Carolina and Kentucky live this season.

Previous North Carolina Evaluation
Previous Kentucky Evaluation

Kentucky freshman Marcus Lee: 925-783-5351 (cell)

NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):

1) Julius Randle (FR, Kentucky): F, 6-9, 245, 19 years old

2) Aaron Harrison (FR, Kentucky): G, 6-5, 210, 19 years old

3) Andrew Harrison (FR, Kentucky): PG, 6-5, 210, 19 years old

4) James Young (FR, Kentucky): SG/SF, 6-6, 205, 18 years old

5) Willie Cauley-Stein (SO, Kentucky): C, 7-0, 245, 20 years old

6) James Michael McAdoo (JR, North Carolina): SF, 6-9, 230, 21 years old

7) Brice Johnson (SO, North Carolina): F, 6-9, 210, 19 years old

8) Marcus Paige (SO, North Carolina): PG, 6-1, 175, 20 years old

9) J.P. Tokoto (SO, North Carolina): SF, 6-6, 185, 20 years old

10) Alex Poythress (SO, Kentucky): F, 6-8, 240, 20 years old

Looking Ahead…

11) Dakari Johnson (FR, Kentucky): C, 6-11, 265, 18 years old

12) Joel James (SO, North Carolina): C, 6-10, 265, 2o years old

13) Kennedy Meeks (FR, North Carolina): PF/C, 6-9, 280, 19 years old

14) Nate Britt (FR, North Carolina): PG, 5-11, 165, 20 years old

—

NBA Prospects

1. Julius Randle — Freshman, 19 years old (at time of Draft)
F, 6-9, 245

Season (30.5 mpg): 17.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.0 APG
52% FG, 8.5 FTA

Game (29 min): 11 points, 5 rebounds, 4 fouls, 4 turnovers
(3-9 FG, 5-6 FT)

Outlook: This was Randle’s “worst” performance of the season, if you will. 3-9 from the field, a season-low 5 rebounds, and got into early foul trouble. Randle briefly flashed his NBA strength and explosiveness, but overall, he had a marginal impact on Saturday.

North Carolina closed off Randle’s driving lanes, and he didn’t have much of an opportunity to assert himself and get touches.

Still, no reason to fret. It was only one game, and Randle can certainly use Saturday as a learning experience. While he shot 3-9, he was still able to get the shots that he wanted. He had some good looks that could’ve gone in.

As Randle continues to get acclimated to tough crowds (this was Kentucky’s first true road game of the season) and adjusts to the new rules in college basketball, I suspect he’ll learn from his mistakes in this game and come back stronger than ever.

Video: Randle Field Goals vs. UNC

Video: Misses, Turnovers vs. UNC

2. Aaron Harrison — Freshman, 19 years old
G, 6-5, 210

Season (30.3 mpg): 14.4 PPG, 3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 47% FG

Game (24 min): 20 points, 3 rebounds
8-12 FG

Outlook: Another impressive performance for Aaron Harrison, as he continues to score efficiently and with palpable confidence. In 24 minutes, he scored 20 points on 8-12 shooting, and showcased several “NBA moves” (in-and-out dribble, stutter step, pull up jumper, euro-step). He converted contested shots—essentially scoring at will—and displayed impressive scoring ability for a freshman.

His offense starts with his terrific jump shot, but he can also penetrate the lane. Quick first step, and excellent touch around the basket. Although he’s not the best athlete, Harrison has good extension on his layups, and he astutely angles his body through contact. I’m not sure how much of an impediment his athleticism is, but it hasn’t hindered him in college thus far.

It seems like Aaron has been “locked in” recently. He’s been effective and efficient over the past 5 games:

11/27 vs. Eastern Michigan: 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5-12 FG
12/1 vs. Providence: 15 points, 4 assists, 7-9 FG
12/6 vs. Baylor: 15 points, 6 assists, 4-9 FG
12/10 vs. Boise State: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, 6-12 FG
12/14 vs. North Carolina: 20 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 8-12 FG

Video: Scoring vs. UNC

Aaron played point guard for long stretches on Saturday, which I believe is a great sign. Although he’s a terrific scorer, he can also initiate offense for his teammates. He recorded zero assists, but directed the offense well and initiated ball movement. He’s more attractive in the NBA if he can play point guard, because he may lack the athleticism/versatility to defend. Playing Aaron at the point lent credence to tremendous upside.

Defense

Aaron has been a solid defender in both games I’ve seen. However, he needs to get stronger. As the video below shows, guys like James McAdoo bullied him in the paint without any resistance.

That said, I think this will come in time. He’s holding opponents to a solid .63 points per play (ranking in the 86th percentile nationally), and his physical profile/competitive nature suggests he will only improve as a defender. Long arms to disrupt passing lanes (like the second play in the clip below), and can contest shots on the perimeter. It’s still early, but I think Aaron has a chance to be an adequate defender.

Video: Man-to-Man Defense

3. Andrew Harrison — Freshman, 19 years old
PG, 6-5, 210

Season (29.4 mpg): 10.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, 6.7 FTA

Game (37 min): 17 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds
3-11 FG, 10-17 FTA

Outlook: Andrew’s shot wasn’t falling (3-10), but he still had a major impact. 17 free throws, 6 rebounds and 7 assists. Andrew is the ultimate “play starter” on the college level. He uses his size and ball handling to aggressively attack the paint, where he can finish through contact. He can also change direction on a dime and play at different speeds, which makes him dangerous from anywhere on the floor.

Most point guards have to contort their body/alter their shooting motion to get a clean look in the paint; Andrew doesn’t. He slices through the lane, absorbs straight-line contact and draws fouls. He also has a quick first-step, which helps him gather momentum towards the rim.

Video: Drawing Fouls vs. UNC

However, similar to his brother Aaron, Andrew isn’t very explosive (you won’t see him dunking on an opposing big man anytime soon).

By far, though, the biggest impediment to his game is his jump shot. He’s scoring a below average .945 points per jump shot attempt (ranking in the 46th percentile nationally), and he’s shooting 36% from three-point range. By my count, five of his eight missed shots on Saturday were jump shots. Simply put, he needs to improve his jump shot, which should (hopefully) come with time.

Video: Shot Attempts vs. UNC

Video: Turnovers

–

Assists

Andrew showcased a willingness to swing the ball and get his teammates involved, finishing with a season-high 7 assists. He is starting to see plays develop before they happen in real time, which is a special quality for a freshman.

Furthermore, his change-of-pace ability keeps the opposition on its toes. I’m not saying Andrew is an elite passing point guard, but at 6-5, he has tremendous upside as an all-around playmaker.

Video: Assists vs. UNC

4. James Young — Freshman, 18 years old
G/F, 6-6, 205

Season (31.8 mpg): 14.1 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 2.4 Three-Pointers

Game (29 min): 16 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist

Outlook: Due to his size, athleticism and shooting range, Young is already one of the best scorers in the country, and a future lottery pick. He asserted himself offensively, shooting the ball and attacking the lane with power. Young displayed polished catch and shoot ability (he’s shooting 55% on unguarded catch and shoot attempts this season). He also displayed speed and athleticism to finish at the rim. He’s a dynamic scorer from the triple-threat stance.

Going forward, Young needs to improve his passing. He hardly facilitates, occasionally is a “ball stopper”, and hasn’t displayed awareness kicking out to shooters. He needs to slow down and read the defense, rather than have “tunnel vision” trying to score the ball. I think this will come with time.

Overall, Young has the physical attributes to be a terrific two-way NBA player: Shooter/athletic slasher/driver on offense, and solid on-ball defender.

Video: Attacking vs. UNC

Video: Misses vs. UNC

5. Willie Cauley-Stein — Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 7-0, 245

Season (26.5 mpg): 8.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.4 BPG

Game (29 min): 5 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks
2-3 FG, 1-2 FT

Outlook: Cauley-Stein continues to showcase his strengths—and limitations—with consistency. Right now, he’s a gangly 7-footer who plays above the rim and blocks shots.

Similar to his effort vs. Providence, Cauley-Stein protected the rim with great awareness, footwork and timing. He recorded 5 blocks, and his current 14.7% block percentage ranks 9th in the country. He also grabbed 12 rebounds (5 offensive, 7 defensive), and did so with relative ease against an undersized UNC frontline.

He runs the floor in transition as well as any big man in the country, although he must continue to hone his hand-eye coordination to finish on the move. In the half court, though, Cauley-Stein is a major “work in progress.” Only 19% of his shot attempts this season are post ups; he’s not much more than an alley-oop/put-back threat at this point. He attempted just three shots vs. North Carolina, two of which were at point-blank range.

In short, he doesn’t have much of an offensive “skill set.” While it’s true he’s been playing basketball for only a few years, if you’re going to invest a high draft pick in Cauley-Stein, you have to believe he has upside offensively. Before I make any definitive statements, I still want to see Cauley-Stein compete against elite college frontcourts.

If Cauley-Stein continues to dominate defensively and on the glass, while incrementally improving his back to the basket game, there will be tangible evidence of offensive upside.

Video: Cauley-Stein vs. UNC

6. James Michael McAdoo — Junior, 21 years old
SF, 6-9, 230

Season (31.1 mpg): 13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.6 SPG
42% FG, 59% FT

Game (37 min): 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals
4-6 FG, 12-19 FT

Outlook: McAdoo looked much better here than when I observed him vs. Louisville last month. Maybe he’s more comfortable playing at home, maybe it was because his team scored 24 points in transition (conducive to his strengths), or maybe it was because McAdoo is, well, actually getting better.

McAdoo ran the gamut offensively—made jump shots, scored with his back to the basket, nice floater in the lane, and finalized plays in transition. He displayed a high basketball IQ en route to drawing 19 free throws, and showcased elite “bounce” off the floor. He wasn’t perfect—wasted dribbles and unnecessarily picking up his handle—but all things considered McAdoo played well. McAdoo showcased an aggressiveness and motor that he’s lacked in the past.

This is to be expected from a junior, but it stood out nonetheless.

–

Last time I evaluated McAdoo, I listed “around the basket scoring” and “defending shooters” as strengths. Well, I neglected to mention his offensive rebounding/put-back skills.

McAdoo was very effective against a formidable Kentucky frontline. He only grabbed 5 rebounds, but had a clear nose for the ball and battled on every “hustle play.” When McAdoo secures a rebound, he quickly bounces off the floor.

His 1.17 points per offensive rebound last season ranked in the 71st percentile nationally, and gave credence to his bounce. McAdoo is a reliable rebounder from anywhere on the court.

Vision/Interior Passing

McAdoo displayed impressive passing instincts in the paint. He had a good feel for where his teammates were, and plays under control to “survey the scene” before taking action. I could be completely off here, but I think McAdoo has the potential to be a great passer at the next level. It’s another aspect of his often-overlooked versatility.

7. Brice Johnson — Sophomore, 19 years old (turns 20 on June 27, one day after NBA Draft)
PF, 6-9, 210

Season (20.6 mpg): 13 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG
3.4 Fouls Per Game, 60% FG

Game (24 min): 8 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks
4-10 FG

Outlook: Johnson was active and played with unmatched energy and intensity. He runs the floor well (track athlete background), and is gradually developing his back to the basket game. He has good touch to go along with his athleticism, and Johnson is the “x-factor” on this UNC team.

He’s also difficult to evaluate. On one hand, he has extraordinary physical tools, to go along with an 8.3% block percentage and a terrific 13.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. His athleticism allows him to play defense against stronger/bigger opponents, and he quickly covers ground on both ends of the floor. On the other hand, though, Johnson has a skinny frame (210 pounds), and offensively lacks the shooting touch to be a solid spot-up/stretch forward.

Johnson has extraordinary athleticism, is producing efficiently, and at this point has a ceiling that is hard to gauge. As I wrote in his previous evaluation,

“Johnson has a lot of work to do—adding significant amounts of muscle, expanding his range to 19-feet, and becoming a little smoother. But he also has some unteachable tools. Freak athlete, natural touch and a knack for scoring below the foul line. A unique player who will have to showcase more, but he’s on the right path.”

Not much has changed since then.

Video: Field Goals/Fouls Drawn vs. Kentucky

Video: Missed Field Goals

Video: Defending Shots vs. Kentucky (small snippet)

8. J.P. Tokoto — Sophomore, 20 years old
SF, 6-6, 185

Season (27.2 mpg): 10 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.6 APG
Improved to 38% on jump shots

Game (26 min): 15 points, 2 assists, 1 rebound
7-10 FG, 1-1 three-pointers

Outlook: Although he wasn’t the most talented, or “best” prospect playing, JP Tokoto definitely surprised me more than anyone else.

As I’ve previously written, Tokoto is an athletic 6-6 swingman with solid rebounding and slashing potential. But the Tokoto we saw vs. Louisville—horribly unpolished, in terms of shooting and handling the ball—and the Tokoto we saw vs. Kentucky were two completely different players. Against Kentucky, Tokoto shot the bal well, going 7-10 from the field and knocking down a 3-pointer. Regardless of the outcome of his jump shots, the fact that he looked comfortable shooting the ball was an encouraging sign. At various points, I was almost baffled how different he looked from when I first saw him.

That being said, I’m not yet sold on JP Tokoto, or on his “improved jump shot.” He still has an inconsistent release, can’t handle the ball against pressure, and, all things considered, this was only one game. One game is a good start though. If he can remain consistent with his jump shot, Tokoto will be on the right path and could eventually emerge as a second-round Draft pick.

Video: Field Goals

Video: Put-Backs / Offensive Rebounds

Video: Improved Shooting (small snippet)

Video: Opponent Field Goals

9. Marcus Paige — Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 175

Season (35.2 mpg): 19.2 PPG, 4.2 APG 3.1 RPG
90% FT

Game (37 min): 23 points, 2 assists, 2 rebounds, 3 steals
21 second half points, 10-10 FT

Outlook: It’s cliche, but it’s true: Marcus Paige is the consummate college point guard — Floor general, leader, always poised, and can single-handedly will his team to victory. Paige has a calculated maturity beyond his years, and I expect him to lead North Carolina deep into the NCAA Tournament this season. He had another terrific game here, scoring 21 second-half points and converting several nail-in-the-coffin baskets down the stretch.

Paige can clearly score from all three levels in college. The statistics back it up, too:

45% FGs
38% 3-pointers
1.091 points per play on shots from 17 feet to the 3-point line, ranking in the 88th percentile nationally.

Video: Playmaking (scoring) vs. Kentucky

All that being said, my first inclination is that Paige’s game will struggle to translate to the NBA. He’s a terrific scorer (particularly from deep), but at 6-1, Paige lacks the size and athleticism of a typical NBA point guard. I also have reservations about his defensive potential — what position can he defend?

He’s slow on his feet defensively, struggles to contain pick and roll penetration, and doesn’t have the lift to contest jump shots. Paige is allowing .87 points per play on defense, ranking in the 48th percentile nationally. Furthermore, opponents are scoring 1.3 points per pick-and-roll attempt, ranking Paige in the bottom 85th percentile of all players.

Video: Man to Man Defense

Perhaps Paige can become a Beno Udrih/Goran Dragic type of player in the NBA — a hybrid lead guard who shoots and passes, and can play off the ball. If he was a few inches taller, I’d say Paige is certainly an NBA player. But he doesn’t, and I’m not sure right now.

It’s foolish to bet against Paige just yet—he’s only 20, and has a lot more time to develop before he enters the Draft. But I’m hesitant. If Paige can sustain his assist numbers and improve his defense throughout the season, he’ll give us a reason to re-evaluate in the future.

10. Alex Poythress — Sophomore, 20 years old
F, 6-8, 240

Season (17.7 mpg): 4.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG

Game (24 min): 6 points, 8 rebounds, 5 fouls

Outlook: Poythress had a decent outing. He continues to play with a high motor, impacting the game with offensive rebounding and defensive energy/versatility. Poythress secured 5 offensive rebounds in only 24 minutes, and his 18.2% offensive rebounding percentage (the percentage of available offensive rebounds he gets while on the floor) ranks 12th in the country.

However, I still do not fully understand Poythress as an NBA prospect. Because he plays only 18 minutes per game, I think the best setting to evaluate Poythress is at Kentucky practice, where he’s competing in an NBA-level environment but still has the freedom to make mistakes he wouldn’t necessarily be able to make in a game.

Video: Offensive Rebounds vs. UNC

Video: Fouls, (Poor) Defense vs. UNC

Looking Ahead…

11. Dakari Johnson — Freshman, 18 years old
C, 6-10, 265

Season (9.9 mpg): 3.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG

Game (7 min): 2 points, 3 rebounds

Outlook: Johnson has great size and strength (6-10, 265), and has impressive footwork for a player his age. Throughout high school, he displayed potential as a “true big man” who is able to score with his back to the basket in the low post. It hasn’t been a seamless transition for him at Kentucky, but Johnson is a hard worker who should garner more minutes as the season goes on.

Right now, Johnson’s biggest weakness is a lack of athleticism, particularly his “lift.” Just by closely observing Johnson in warm ups, it was clear he has virtually no lift right now. This is also clear on tape, as he often establishes great position to secure a rebound but quickly surrenders to the force of gravity.

Johnson should always be solid defensively, which bodes well for his NBA potential, but he needs to show more on the offensive end to really be taken seriously. Right now he’s behind offensively. A good place to start would be attacking the rim with more conviction, regardless of his “lift.” Johnson always lacked a “mean streak” throughout high school, and it seems to be carrying over at Kentucky. He’d be a different player if he looked to throw the first punch.

12. Joel James — Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 6-10, 265

Season (13.9 mpg): 4.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG

Game (13 min): 5 points, 5 rebounds

Outlook: James caught my eye vs. Kentucky, and I think he’s one of the more underrated centers in the country.

Great size, but more importantly, he has a soft touch around the basket for a 6-10 center. He’s active on both ends of the floor, and has learned to utilize instincts such as pump-fakes and shoulder-dips well. Frankly, I’m kind of surprised that he’s not playing more minutes. James didn’t dominate vs. Kentucky, but he made his mark as a physical defender who cleans up on the glass.

His offense needs a lot of work, but it seems like he has a natural lefty touch from close range. They key will be to extend his range out to 15-feet. If he can do so, then he becomes an NBA prospect in my opinion. I think James should average a double-double on the college level. However, the problem is, he’s a 6-10, 265-pound center playing in a transition-heavy North Carolina system.

It’s obviously premature to draw conclusions, but based on 13 minutes of live action and some game film, I’m very intrigued by James’ combination of size and skill. I’m not sure if James is worthy of “NBA consideration” right now, but I believe he’ll resurface as his career progresses.

Video: Offensive Presence

Video: Put-Backs (Offensive Rebounding)

Video: Post-Up Misses

Video: Baskets in the Paint

13. Kennedy Meeks — Freshman, 19 years old
PF/C, 6-9, 280

Season (14.9 mpg): 7.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.4 APG

Game (19 min): 1 point (0-4), 4 rebounds, 2 blocks

Outlook: Meeks is one of the most enjoyable players to watch in college basketball, because he kind of defies basketball convention. He incredibly nimble on his feet for a 6-9, 280-pound player. He’s not very athletic, but instead uses a beautiful touch on a wide arsenal of offensive moves to score. He’s still young, but Meeks is scoring 1 point per post up possession, ranking in the 76th percentile nationally. He also uses his wide frame to secure rebounds at a high rate.

However, at only 6-9, Meeks is not going to be a center at the NBA level. He needs to shed weight, while keeping the strength to finish through bigger defenders. He also doesn’t have much bounce or lift off the ground, which could be problematic when defending/competing against NBA bigs. It’s still very early in his career—and this is merely an introduction, not an evaluation—but perhaps Meeks could be a DeJuan Blair type of prospect down the line.

Video: Post Up Makes

Video: Wide Body… but No Lift

14. Nate Britt — Freshman, 20 years old
PG, 5-11, 165

Season (25.3 mpg): 5.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.3 APG

Game (28 min): 8 points, 2 steals, 1 assist, 5 fouls

Outlook: Britt is too small and skinny right now.

Yes, he has terrific speed and court vision to push the tempo and make plays in transition. But he has limited range on his jump shot, and lacks explosiveness in open space. Britt often creates separation from his defender, only to miss by a wide margin. Crooked shooting form, and struggles against taller defenders because of his diminutive size. He also lacks explosiveness to finish at the basket. If he can shore up his jump shot, Britt could potentially transform his makeup as a player.

Video: vs. Kentucky

Video: Missed Field Goals (small snippet)

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft

Full Box Score

Scouting Report: Seton Hall vs. NJIT

Seton Hall 71, New Jersey Institute of Technology 55

Tuesday, December 10, 2013 | 9:00 p.m. EST | Prudential Center (Newark, NJ)

Seton Hall 7-3, NJIT 6-5

*Seton Hall swingman (and NBA prospect) Fuquan Edwin was inactive for the third straight game (sprained ankle). Here is a prior report on Edwin.

*Patrik Auda (12 PPG, 5.6 RPG) was also inactive for the Pirates (foot). A redshirt junior, it appears Audua will miss a large portion of the Pirates season for the second straight year.

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*There were zero sure-fire NBA players in this game. Guards Damon Lynn, Sterling Gibbs, and perhaps Jaren Sina are worth monitoring, but as of now they are not viable NBA prospects.

Recap: This game was closer than the final score indicates. The Pirates won, but they allowed NJIT—Division I’s lone independent team, whose tallest active player is 6-7—to take an early 11-4 lead, and keep it close throughout. Seton Hall’s offense was astonishingly stagnant without Fuquan Edwin. No Pirate create for himself, and the only strategy that worked was incessantly feeding the post to capitalize on the size advantage. Eugene Teague finished with 11 points and 14 rebounds for the Pirates, and freshman point guard Damon Lynn led NJIT with 16 points.

Previous Seton Hall Evaluation

NBA Prospects: None

Played Well, But Not “There” Right Now:

1) Sterling Gibbs (Sophomore, Seton Hall): PG, 6-1, 185

2) Damon Lynn (Freshman, NJIT): PG, 5-11, 165

3) Jaren Sina (Freshman, Seton Hall): PG, 6-2, 180

4) Eugene Teague (Senior, Seton Hall): C, 6-9, 270

5) Brandon Mobley (Junior, Seton Hall): F, 6-9, 215

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*This was my third time observing Seton Hall this season. First time observing NJIT.

Players:

1) Sterling Gibbs — Sophomore (via Texas), 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 185

Season (29.2 mpg): 16 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 10.3 FTA

Game: 16 points, 2 assists, 1 rebound, 8-9 FT

Outlook: Although only 6-1, Gibbs gets into the paint and accumulates free throws. He averages 10.3 FTA per game, and ranks 2nd in the country with 103 total attempts. Furthermore, according the KenPom.com, Gibbs 121.2 free throw rate (a metric that measures a player’s ability to get to the line relative to how often he attempts to score) is 3rd-highest in the country.

That being said, right now Gibbs is solely effective in transition. He struggles to initiate offense in the half-court. Gibbs leads Seton Hall with a 26.7% usage percentage, but he can’t shoot, struggles to create one-on-one, and doesn’t facilitate for his teammates. Therefore, despite averaging 16 points and 4 rebounds, I hold Gibbs accountable for much of Seton Hall’s stagnant offense. Additionally, he lacks athleticism, which is not a good sign when you’re only 6-1.

If Gibbs can refine his jump shot and improve his passing, he has a chance to be an NBA prospect. But I don’t see it.

STRENGTHS

Drawing Fouls

Transition

Twenty-five percent of Gibbs’ offense is in transition, the most of any Seton Hall player. He’s one of those players who is faster with the ball in his hands, quickly changing direction. He’s not an elite athlete, but he’s solid enough to get ahead and make a play. Definitely a threat in transition, and his 1.33 points per play in transition ranks in the 84th percentile nationally.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Assists

Gibbs averages four assists per game, and his 30.4% assist percentage (percentage of teammate’s field goals Gibbs assisted while on the floor) ranks 102nd nationally, but I think those statistics misrepresent his actual ability. Similar to his performance at the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, he looked incapable of setting the tempo and commanding the offense.

Jump Shot

Gibbs is shooting a terrible 26% on jump shots this season, and an unimpressive 30% on three-pointers. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, when Gibbs shoots, I’ve come to the point where I’m genuinely surprised if it goes in.

Poor Defense

Gibbs is not a defensive liability, but he’s not a “good” defender in my estimation. He seemed to be lethargic on some possessions, and his physical makeup (lack of size, muscle and lateral quickness) hinders him. Bigger opponents can shoot over him or attack the basket, while quicker/craftier guards penetrate the lane with ease. Although Seton Hall plays zone defense on 50% of its possessions, NJIT point guard Damon Lynn got the best of Gibbs on several plays.

2) Damon Lynn — Freshman, 19 years old
PG, 5-11, 165

Season (35.1 mpg): 18.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.3 APG

Game: 16 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists

Outlook: It’s human nature to overhype an underdog, but Damon Lynn was the most impressive player on the court. He has the talent to play mid- to high-major college basketball, and after watching him vs. Seton Hall, I’m inclined to believe Lynn will sustain an 18 PPG scoring average as a freshman. He’s too small/skinny/unskilled to compete at the next level, but Lynn projects to be a very good college player.

Check out some of Lynn’s performances this season:

21 points, 4 assists @ Tulane

27 points @ Army

24 points, 3 rebounds @ Maine

18 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals vs. Central Connecticut State

24 points vs Albany

16 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists @ Seton Hall

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After observing Lynn compete in one game, this is what I gathered: He’s a tiny point guard with elite quickness, strong handle, and a penchant to jack up 3′s. He averages 9.3 three-pointers per game, and his 102 attempts are 3rd most in the country. But he makes the shots — his 39 three-pointers are 3rd nationally, and he’s shooting a solid 38% from downtown.

Again, very small, but has advanced ball handling skills, and can convert difficult jump shots against pressure. He needs to improve his assist numbers, but part of me wonders if this is due to a lack of talent surrounding Lynn rather than an inability to set up his teammates.

I’m not exactly sure what to gather after this game, other than Lynn played really well.

Video: Lynn vs. Seton Hall

3) Jaren Sina — Freshman, 20 years old
SG, 6-2, 180

Season (23.9 mpg): 6.8 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 2.3 APG

Game: 17 points, 4 assists 3-4 three-pointers

*Committed to Alabama as a sophomore. Then committed to Northwestern, but was released from his letter of intent in March 2013 and eventually landed at Seton Hall.

Outlook: Throughout the majority of his high school career, Sina was widely considered a top-60 recruit. I was never sold, though. In fact, I was always perplexed by his high ranking. I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but after watching him countless times in high school, I think he’s very limited on the court. In fact, with Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington coming to Seton Hall next season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sina transferred.

The reason Sina ranks ahead of Eugene Teague and Brandon Mobley in this evaluation is simply because of his age.

The Good: Sina is a reliable three-point shooter.

The Bad: Below average size and athleticism; turns back against pressure; too passive (borderline timid); a liability on defense.

STRENGTHS

Shooting

Sina can shoot the basketball very well. 1.2 three-pointers per game, 39% from behind the arc. Shooting 42% on all jump shots this season, where 76% of his shot attempts have come from.

Smooth and consistent rhythm, with an impressive catch-and-shoot game. He’s emerging as Seton Hall’s best perimeter shooter (aside from Edwin), a role he could eventually excel in. He also has good pacing and ball control against more athletic defenders.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Driving Struggles

Of Sina’s 51 field goal attempts this season, only seven have been around the basket. This is to say: Sina clearly struggles to drive the basketball right now. He almost always kicks out to teammates when he drives, never looking to score. His lack of athleticism and quickness limit him in this regard.

In order to become a well-rounded player, Sina’s main focus should be improving his ball handling and confidence/conviction driving the ball. This was the case in high school as well.

Defensive Struggles

Isolation Defense

Sina struggles to stay upright, often “bouncing around” on his feet rather than getting in a low stance. Opposing players are shooting 44% on jump shots against Sina, and his 1.23 points allowed per jump shot ranks in the bottom 15th percentile nationally.

Pick-and-Roll Defense

Sina also struggles to stay with his man in pick-and-roll situations. He’s an automatic switch on every pick-and-roll. This is concerning.

Overall: Sina’s struggles could be attributed to “being a freshman,” but I think his weaknesses are part of his natural makeup. Good shooter, but struggles in several other aspects on both sides of the ball.

4) Eugene Teague — Senior (via Southern Illinois), 24 years old
C, 6-9, 270

Season (26 mpg): 9.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.2 APG

Game: 11 points, 14 rebounds

Outlook: Teague is a physical post presence who cleans up the glass and provides a wide body on defense. He’s not very athletic, but he establishes good position to secure rebounds. His 16.8 offensive rebounding percentage (percentage of available offensive rebounds Teague grabs while on the floor) ranks 25th nationally, and his 25% defensive rebounding percentage ranks 56th.

In terms of the NBA, at 24 years old, I wonder if Teague has already realized his ceiling. His range, skill and athleticism are all limited.

Offensive Rebounding/Put-Backs

24% of Teague’s shot attempts this season have come in the form of offensive rebounds/put-backs, where he shoots 60%. He always competes at the rim, and can impose his strength on smaller players. He also has some deceptive athleticism, jumping to secure a rebound and then subsequently using a second burst to finish.

Scoring Struggles

Teague is posting a below average .674 points per post up, ranking worse than 80 percent of all players. He lacks adequate feel/touch, and doesn’t have much of a back to the basket or face up game. He also doesn’t have NBA-caliber lift off the ground. He’s better scoring the ball once he’s established some momentum, whether it’s securing a rebound or playing on the bottom of a high-low set.

Overall: Right now he appears to be an undersized, below-the-rim post player who makes hustle plays and brings physicality. At 24 years old and with a limited skill set, though, I don’t see the NBA in Teague’s future.

5) Brandon Mobley — Junior, 23 years old
F, 6-9, 215

Season (25.4 mpg): 9.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG

Game: 18 points, 3 assists, 3 rebounds, 3 blocks

*Mobley is returning from season ending shoulder surgery he underwent last February.

Outlook: Mobley is a swingman with good athleticism and developing jump shot. But at this point he doesn’t have an identity—too small and skinny to play power forward, but not skilled enough (either shooting or ball handling-wise) to play on the perimeter. Thus, he’s kind of stuck in “no mans’ land” on both offense and defense. This relegates him to foul-line jump shots on offense, with occasional opportunities as a slasher and offensive rebounder.

Overall, Mobley needs to add a significant amount of muscle, and then sort redefine his offensive arsenal to include some semblance of a jumpshot. I don’t see it at this point.

Video: Flat Jump Shot

Video: Around the Basket Scoring

*Ages calculated at time of 2014 Draft

Full box score

Game Notes: Kentucky vs. Providence

Kentucky 79, Providence 65

Sunday, December 1, 2013 | 8:30 p.m. EST | Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)

Kentucky 7-1, Providence 7-2

Recap: Willie Cauley-Stein posted 15 points, 8 rebounds and a career-high 9 blocks to lead Kentucky tover Providence. The Friars kept it close, trailing 39-35 at halftime, but Kentucky inevitably stretched its lead and secured the victory. Julius Randle continued to dominate, even in the face of double-and triple-teams, scoring 12 points to go along with 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Aaron Harrison started to find his rhythm (15 points), and Kentucky went 6-for-8 from 3-point range, including three 3-pointers from James Young. Providence’s Bryce Cotton scored a game-high 23 points, but overall, Kentucky’s size and firepower proved to be too much.

Game Notes

1. Julius Randle — Freshman, 19 years old (at time of Draft)
F, 6-9, 245

Season (29.6 mpg): 19 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.9 APG

Game (34 min): 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists

4-7 free throws

Notes: Despite facing constant double-and triple-teams, Randle scored 12 points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished 4 assists in 34 minutes. Randle was clearly the most NBA-ready player on the court, finishing through contact on nearly every field goal. Randle utilized his go-to move in the post: “one dribble, drop step, lefty hook shot.” The defense knew it was coming but still was helpless. Overall, a solid performance for Randle, who is a candidate to be the No.1 overall pick.

2. James Young — Freshman, 18 years old
G/F, 6-6, 205

Season: 12.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.3 APG

Game (33 min): 18 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist

Notes: Young was very impressive tonight. NBA size and length, terrific jump shot, tenacious defender and quick in transition. Plus, he’s only 18 years old.

Young was active tonight, and moved the ball unselfishly. He swung the ball in the beginning of possessions, and then knocked down shots when the ball reversed back to him late in the shot clock. He also finalized several plays in the open court, showcasing above-the-rim athleticism. Young’s combination of shooting, athleticism and basketball IQ give him one of the highest upsides of any player in college basketball. He impressed me across the board, and along with Julius Randle, looked like the best NBA prospect on the floor tonight.

3. Aaron Harrison — Freshman, 19 years old
G, 6-5, 210

Season (28.3 mpg): 13.6 PPG, 3 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1 SPG

Game (38 min): 15 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds

7-9 FG

I’ve observed Aaron and Andrew Harrison throughout their high school careers, but this was my first watching them on the college level.

Notes: Aaron continues to showcase that he’s not “just a shooter.” I’ve always believed Aaron can both initiate and facilitate offense. He played selfless, team-first basketball vs. Providence.

Aaron scored 15 points on an efficient 7-9 shooting, and also recorded 4 assists. On one particular play, James Young received an outlet pass, lofted the ball 40 feet to Aaron who—instead of going up for a contested layup—made a smart touch-pass to Cauley-Stein for an easy dunk. This showed good awareness and was a selfless play. The more Aaron can find his shot while still playing within the offense, the greater his overall impact. Due to his 6-5 frame, Aaron is very difficult to stop once he has momentum, and should become a better finisher as his body continues to develop.

On defense, Aaron used his length and instincts to disrupt passing lanes and deflect entry passes. Overall, Aaron Harrison did not dominate, but he nonetheless made a significant impact. He’s still not fully comfortable in Kentucky’s offense, but he’s a reliable scorer with an increasingly patient approach.

*My one criticism of Aaron tonight (along with his twin brother Andrew) was his lack of movement without the ball. It seems like the Harrison brothers often ball-watch when they don’t have the ball, which contributes to the offense becoming more stagnant. I’m sure it’s easy to zone out and watch Julius Randle go to work, but still, you can’t just stand on the 3-point line waiting for the ball.

4. Willie Cauley-Stein — Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 7-0, 245

Season: 8.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.1 BPG

Game (36 min): 15 points, 8 rebounds, 9 blocks

Notes: Cauley-Stein had somewhat of a “breakout” game, showcasing his full arsenal of skills vs. Providence. He posted 9 blocks against a sizable Providence frontline. Cauley-Stein smartly blocked shots in the direction of his teammates, which ignited fast-break opportunities.

Offensively, Cauley-Stein showcased a developing touch inside the foul line, and gave a second effort on the offensive glass. He ran the floor well, and was the recipient of two alley-oops (by my count). The alley-oops were not “easy,” either. Cauley-Stein jumped high to catch—and then finish—the play. If he continues to assert himself defensively, while making incremental strides scoring in the paint, Cauley-Stein could elevate his game to “a new level.”

Going forward, I still want to see him against NBA strength and physicality. I’m not sure how he would fair against stronger players like, say, Patric Young.

5. Andrew Harrison — Freshman, 19 years old
PG, 6-5, 210

Season (28.3 mpg): 10.7 PPG, 3.7 APG, 2 RPG

Game (22 min): 8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist

0-2 FG, 8-8 FT

Notes: Standing at 6-5, Andrew Harrison has great size for an NBA point guard. His offensive game is inside-out; attacks the rim first, and shoots from outside second.

Andrew is a play-starting guard who needs to establish a rhythm to be effective. However, the problem is that Kentucky has so many capable ball handlers (Harrisons, Young, Randle, etc), that it makes it difficult for Andrew to settle in as Kentucky’s floor general, which sometimes hinders his flow. This was evident tonight, as Andrew moseyed around the perimeter (ball watching) more than you’d like. He still played well, powerfully driving to accumulate free throws (8-8 FT), but from a scouting perspective I didn’t leave particularly impressed. His game is predicated on having the ball in his hands, not playing off the ball like he did vs. Providence.

6. Alex Poythress — Sophomore, 20 years old
F, 6-8, 240

Season (19 minutes): 5.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG

Game (15 min): 5 points, 2 blocks

Notes: It’s sometimes difficult for me to evaluate Kentucky’s players during games due to the fact there’s only one basketball being shared between at least five future NBA players. I am not sure how to evaluate Alex Poythress at this point, but this is what I’ve gleaned from my observations thus far.

On one hand, I like his physical frame and defensive versatility. Terrific athlete who can “glide” through the air and finish through contact. Poythress has the length to defend multiple positions, and takes pride in playing defense. At only 20 years old, he has a chance to develop into a solid defender in the NBA.

On the other, though, there are times in each game where Poythress seems either unaware, not confident in his abilities, or simply lost. He didn’t assert himself at any point vs. Providence.

On one play in the second half, Poythress was wide open on a fast break, but inexplicably decided to attempt a lob-pass to a trailing teammate on the weak side, rather than going up for an easy basket. Poythress was then harping on this mistake, which seemed to impact his focus on consequent possessions.

It was only one play, but it caught my eye. In all honesty, though, I need to watch more film on Poythress to fully understand his game.

Other Players

Bryce Cotton— Senior, 21 years old
PG, 6-1, 165

Season (35.9 mpg): 18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3 RPG

Game (40 min): 23 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists

Notes: Cotton has a “scorers feel.” He single-handedly kept Providence in the game, scoring 23 points (including five 3-pointers). Cotton initiated all of his points, without ball movement or any set plays. Cotton displayed impressive ball skills, and took Kentucky’s young guards to school.

However, I don’t think his scoring prowess will translate to the NBA level. He’s limited athletically, and at 6-2, Cotton is diminutive in size. Great effort by a very good college player.

Tyler Harris— Sophomore, 20 years old
F, 6-9, 215

Season (30.8 mpg): 13.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 APG

Game (36 min): 10 points, 3 rebounds

Cell: 631-697-1776

*Harris played his freshman year at North Carolina State in 2011-12, where his most notable moment was successfully defending Thomas Robinson in the NCAA Tournament. Harris then transferred to Providence amid an influx of forwards at NC State, and after sitting out last season, he’s back on the court.

Notes: A versatile lefty who can post up smaller guards and take bigger defenders off the dribble. Offensively, he has a quick first step and a mediocre jump shot. Defensively, Harris can defend multiple positions due to his length and quickness. I’ve known Tyler since his high school days, and like his brother Tobias, he competes hard on every possession.

All that being said, he doesn’t have the perimeter skills (ball handling, jump shot) to be an NBA small forward, and really lacks the strength to be a power forward. Julius Randle and Alex Poythress backed him down with ease throughout the game. In my estimation, Harris is not an NBA prospect right now.

*Ages calculated at time of 2014

Full Box Score