Coaches vs. Cancer Classic
November 22-23 | Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)
Michigan State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech
Championship: Michigan State 87, Oklahoma 76
Consolation: Seton Hall 68, Virginia Tech 67
All-Tournament Team:
Keith Appling (MSU) — MVP
Adreian Payne (MSU)
Cameron Clark (OU)
Jarrell Eddie (VT)
Fuquan Edwin (SHU)
NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):
1) Gary Harris (SO, Michigan State): SG, 6-4, 210, 19 years old
2) Adreian Payne (SR, Michigan State): F/C, 6-10, 245, 23 years old
3) Keith Appling (SR, Michigan State): PG, 6-2, 180, 22 years old
4) Fuquan Edwin (SR, Seton Hall): SG/SF, 6-6, 215, 22 years old
5) Branden Dawson (JR, Michigan State): G/F, 6-6, 225, 21 years old
Tier 2
6) Cameron Clark (SR, Oklahoma): SG, 6-6, 210
Played Well, But Not “There” Right Now:
7) Jarrell Eddie (SR, Virginia Tech): F, 6-7, 220, 22 years old
8) Denzel Valentine (SO, Michigan State): G, 6-5, 225, 20 years old
9) Isaiah Cousins (SO, Oklahoma): G, 6-4, 180
10) Sterling Gibbs (SO, Seton Hall): PG, 6-1, 185, 20 years old
—–
NBA Prospects
1) Gary Harris — Sophomore, 19 years old
SG, 6-4, 210
Season: 17.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.8 APG
Outlook: Harris is a tough prospect for me to evaluate. On one hand, he’s a physical shooting guard with two-way talents. Developing a terrific jumper, scores efficiently, can finish with grace or through contact, runs off screens to create misdirection, and is consistent in his production. Harris has a strong motor on defense, with the instincts and desire to be a force. He’s only 19 years old, yet has clearly improved throughout college—development that should continue in the NBA.
On the other hand, Harris is 1) undersized at 6-4, 2) struggling from the perimeter (41% from 3 as a freshman; 27% this year), 3) not a great shot creator and 4) frankly, seems to “blend in” more often than you’d like.
The reason I’m not fully comfortable is probably because of just that—Harris isn’t a “flashy” prospect; nothing really catches your eye when you watch him. But all things considered, Harris is right there at the end of every game, filling up the box score, executing defensive concepts, and ultimately reminding everyone why he’s considered to be a lottery pick.
Harris averaged 20 points, 3.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds in two games at the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Nice explosion attacking the rim, knocked down catch-and-shoot opportunities, played suffocating defense, and was a great “team player” throughout (making the extra pass, not forcing shots, etc). He forced a few shots, but I took it as trying to be aggressive rather than being careless. As mentioned, Harris has the strength and active hands to be an impact defender.
OFFENSE
Transition
24% of Harris’ shot attempts have been in transition this season, where his 1.23 points per possession ranks in the 71st percentile nationally. His numbers last season were nearly identical. He runs the floor quickly in transition, and is capable to either lead the break or run the wings.
Spot-Up
Harris is not a great shooter right now. Last season’s percentages of 38% on 2-pointers and 41% on 3’s has regressed to 31% and 27%, respectively. Improving his shot will allow him to maximize the triple-threat stance, which is the foundation of Harris’ perimeter game. In my opinion, his development is contingent on his jump shot. If he becomes a reliable shooter, his game will elevate to a new level.
Pick-and-Roll Scoring
Like the rest of his offensive game, Harris doesn’t hesitate on his pick-and-roll decisions, which is essential at the NBA level. He seems to “react” more than he “thinks.” He astutely angles himself to create favorable driving lanes, and if defenders go under the screen, he will gladly pull-up. He is shooting 45 percent on the pick-and-roll this season, and his 1.07 points per attempt ranks in the 81st percentile nationally. Small sample size, sure, but he produced at a similar rate last season.
DEFENSE
Guarding Jump Shots
Harris uses a strong frame and low stance to dig in defensively, and he remains between his man and the basket to effectively closeout on jump shots. Harris has held opponents to 28.9% shooting on jump shots this season. Harris is a reliable defender at the college level. with terrific upside as he continues to develop.
2) Adreian Payne — Senior, 23 years old
F/C, 6-10, 245
Season: 17.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.5 APG
Outlook: Payne was one of the most dominant players in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, scoring from all over the court and occasionally imposing his will. He scored a career-high 29 points vs. Virginia Tech on Friday. though in fairness he faced two teams (Tech and Oklahoma) that lack frontcourt depth.
Standing at 6-10, Payne is a true inside-outside player who can finish around the basket (92%, albeit on 14 attempts) and also knock-down 3-pointers (47% on 17 attempts). He’s an average defensive rebounder, can run the floor, and has a developing back to the basket game.
The knock against Payne is his age. He’ll be 23 years old at the time of the Draft, so you have to wonder if he’s already realized his ceiling. He lacks natural physicality, and doesn’t have great speed or explosion.
Simply put, Payne is a big-bodied, versatile, floor spacing threat. If he has in fact reached his ceiling, is that ceiling good enough for to contribute in the NBA?
Post-Up / Around the Basket
Payne is not the strongest player but he is skilled with his back tot he basket. Smooth jump hooks, can roam the baseline for alley-oop opportunities, and can dunk if given space. He posted an excellent 1.39 points per possession around the basket last season (93rd percentile), where 40% of his shot attempts came from. My only concern is how Payne—who uses “extension” rather than “athleticism” to score—will deal with NBA length and athleticism in the paint. Stronger and more athletic guys can take him out of position and bump him off the block.
Shooting
Payne’s best attribute is his shooting. He’s shooting 47% from 3-point range, and 35% on overall jump shots this season. Just through observing Payne in warm-ups and over the course of two games, I am sold on his shooting ability (particularly from 3-point range). At 6-10, he has great floor-spacing potential.
Scoring Off Cuts
Payne is nimble to get around screens. He has strong hands to receive the ball in stride and secure it to the hoop.
Needs To Work On…
Transition
Payne is mobile in the open court, and converts at a high rate (77% last season). His biggest strength in transition is his versatility. He can set up anywhere, and score from both the perimeter and interior.
However, Payne lacks true “above the rim” athleticism, so his strong finishing ability could be due to the inferior athleticism on the college level. This will be something to monitor throughout the season.
Offensive Rebounding / Put-Backs
Although he averages 8 rebounds per game, Payne hasn’t shown much ability on the offensive glass. He has a total of eight offensive rebounds in six games. When Payne secures an O-rebound, he often goes up for a dunk, which is encouraging. That being said, I still would like to know his athletic measurements, because he doesn’t seem that athletic when you watch him. For me, Payne’s rebounding potential—or lack thereof—will heavily influence the balance of his NBA prospects.
OVERALL
Payne may have reached his ceiling in terms of his repertoire, but he can certainly take strides to become more consistent, which should hold some weight for his NBA prospects. He has rare versatility and shooting ability for a 6-10 forward, and occasionally scores out of the post.
3) Keith Appling — Senior, 22 years old
PG, 6-2, 180
Outlook: Keith Appling is clearly MSU’s leader and tone-setter. A 21-year-old senior and former McDonald’s All-American, Appling has drastically improved his game from last season. He made a “statement” with his 22/8/8 performance vs. Kentucky at the Champions Classic, he continued his strong play this past weekend. Good pick and roll skills, surprised me with great athleticism and body control, and has an extra “burst” to get to the rim.
Perhaps most importantly, he shot the ball well: 5-9 (3-4 from 3) vs. Virginia Tech, and 8-12 (1-4 from 3) vs. Oklahoma.
Last season: 33.6 MPG — 41.5 FG%, 46.9 Effective FG%, 52.6 True Shooting%, 4.8 FTA, 1.43 AST/TO Ratio, 33.5 FG% Jump Shots
This season: 31.7 MPG — 56 FG%, 66.1 Effective FG%, 68.5 True Shooting%, 5.2 FTA, 3.40 AST/TO Ratio, 48 FG% Jump Shots
Appling has also improved his assist rate from 20.6 to 29.8, as well as his offensive efficiency rating, from 104 to 132. So yeah, quite an improvement, literally across the board. Appling is not a lottery-pick talent, but he’s young for a senior, and if he can continue to produce in the Big 10, his Draft stock will follow suit.
Pick-and-Roll Passing
Appling has always been a deft passer out of the pick and roll. This season, teammates are scoring a solid 1.12 points per possession on Appling’s P-n-R passes, ranking in the 66th percentile nationally. Great timing, passing the ball during the split-second window when the defense is frozen on the pick-and-roll. Adreian Payne’s shooting prowess certainly boosts Appling’s passing numbers, but when you think about it, he’ll play with even better shooters in the NBA. It will be interesting to see how teams try to stop Michigan State’s pick and roll, led by Appling.
Pick-and-Roll Scoring
Appling is a crafty finisher out of the pick and roll. He has a quick first step, can attack even the smallest gap in the defense, and has the body control to finish at the rim.
3-Point Shooting
As noted before, Appling’s shooting has improved across the board. Last year he shot 32% from 3-point range; this year he’s shooting 57%, on the same number of attempts. Last year he posted .94 points per possession on 3-point jump shots; this year he’s posting an excellent 1.5 PPP. We’re talking about a drastic improvement thus far.
All this being said, Appling’s slow release concerns me. NBA defenders may be able to easily close out on Appling. This will make it difficult for him to succeed at the next level. Appling needs to develop a quicker release.
Transition
In transition, Appling can lead the break or run the wings. Fast, good body control and explosiveness to finish in the paint. He can also change direction on a dime, and astutely dips his shoulder to absorb contact. Appling has made a few “wow” plays so far this season, and it’s no fluke—he’s dangerous in the open court.
Difficulty Guarding Pick-and-Roll
Appling seems to have difficulty getting around screens, allowing speedy guards to blow by him. His diminutive size makes it hard to contest jump shots, and he also needs to put on weight, as bigger defenders throw him off balance with a solid screen. His pick and roll defense is concerning.
OVERALL
Michigan State is the No. 1 ranked team in the country, and Appling is the team’s leader. Playing with increased efficiency this season, including a much-improved jump shot, we’re starting to see why Appling was so highly-touted coming out of high school. The key will be continuing his physical development while improving his passing to play point guard.
4) Fuquan Edwin — Senior, 22 years old
SG/SF, 6-6, 215
Season: 15.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.7 SPG
Outlook: Edwin struggles creating off the dribble, but he has NBA potential as a role-playing shooter who can defend. He’s a terrific catch and shoot threat who doesn’t need the ball to be effective.
Edwin will have to iron out some kinks—specifically, handling the ball against NBA pressure—but his size, catch and shoot ability, and length as a defender give him upside as a second round draft pick.
STRENGTHS
Deflections/Steals in Passing Lane
Edwin has excellent length and defensive instincts to accumulate deflections and steals. He has the potential to be a very good on-ball defender. His 5% steal percentage (percentage of possessions Edwin records a steal while he is on the floor) ranks 47th nationally. His size and length are apparent on film.
Shooting Range
53% of Edwin’s shots last season were jump shots. He shot 39% on all jump shots, 41% on 3-pointers, and his 1.1 points per jump shot attempt ranked in the 85th percentile nationally. His shooting has regressed this season (35%), but the range is still there.
Scoring Off Screens
Edwin is terrific running off screens to free himself for an open jump shot. Quick release—albeit an unconventional form—in which he brings the ball over his head without follow through. Edwin shot a terrific 42% coming off screens last season.
To elevate this aspect of his game, though, he’ll need to tighten his handle so he can attack the rim when receiving the ball coming off the screen.
OVERALL
You can’t teach 6-6 with a big frame and knock-down shooting. There’s usually room for “specialists” in the NBA, and if Edwin can perfect his shooting skill, he has a chance to stick in the League.
5) Branden Dawson – Junior, 21 years old
G/F, 6-6, 225
Season: 11 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG
Outlook: Branden Dawson is a physical forward with a strong motor. He has an NBA body at 6-6 (with a 6-9 wingspan), and is versatile to defend three positions on the college level. His constant activity results in many “hustle plays.” He averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds at the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.
Dawson has maintained supreme explosiveness despite tearing his ACL at the end of his freshman year. He needs to improve his ball handling and shooting touch, but you can’t teach the natural physicality and toughness Dawson possesses. If he can improve his perimeter game to a semi-adequate level (and that’s a big “if”), he has a chance to carve out a role as a complimentary player in the NBA.
Dawson is shooting 60% this season, but 85% of his shots are “around the basket.” That overly reliant post game won’t suffice in the NBA; he needs to develop some semblance of a jump shot. Also, what position can he guard in the NBA? Is he quick enough to stick with guys on the perimeter?
STRENGTHS
Put-Backs/Offensive Rebounds
Nearly 22% of Dawson’s scoring attempts this season have come in the form of offensive rebounds/put-backs, where his 1.3 points per possession on such attempts ranks in the 72nd percentile nationally. He can crash the glass from the wing (averaging 3.6 offensive rebounds per game), and also establishes solid position to compete for rebounds down low. Dawson is one of the best high-energy rebounders in the country.
Scoring Around the Basket
Dawson’s motor elevates his impact in the paint, as many of his points and rebounds are a result of sheer hustle.
Defense
Dawson has the length and defensive instincts to contest shots from anywhere on the court. He has a high motor, and seems to focus early in possessions. I’m waiting to observe him again before appraising his defensive potential, but early impressions—stifling Julius Randle in the first half in Chicago, and extending to his play in Brooklyn—are very positive.
Transition Attempts
At this point, Dawson is an average transition player. But his upside is obvious. He can take off from virtually anywhere in the open floor. Alley-oops and easy dunks—yes, sure—but Dawson needs to develop his handle to maximize his physical tools in the open court.
MUST IMPROVE
Poor Shooting
Dawson connected on only 28% of his jump shots last season. He has a long release on his shot; if he can refine his jump shot, he will be able to play small forward in the NBA, which could open up the floodgates in terms of using his athletic gifts. Again, it’s easy for me to write that Dawson needs to fix his jump shot; improving it in real life is the real challenge.
OVERALL
Dawson has admirable resolve to come back from a serious ACL injury unscathed.
The scouting report is simple in my opinion: a 6-6, high-energy athlete who can rebound and defend anywhere on the court. Offensively, Dawson can score inside the paint or accumulate points via hustle plays. The next step is extending his jump shot to at least 18 feet.
Tier 2
6) Cameron Clark — Senior
SG, 6-6, 210
Season: 18.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1 APG
Outlook: Clark scored 32 points and grabbed 7 rebounds in the championship game vs. Michigan State. He scored 16 points in the first 10 minutes of the game, knocking down jump shots and finalizing plays in transition. Clark got into a rhythm early, and Michigan State could not stop him.
He showcased the scoring ability many expected when he was a top-50 recruit out of high school. Standing at 6-6, he’s a long and wiry swingman who can score from various spots on the floor, as evidenced by the film above. Clark doesn’t possess any “elite” skills, but he has a number of “good” skills.
That said, it was a small sample size, and there’s a surplus of available 6-6 swingmen who can score when feeling it. Plus, Clark really struggles to get to the free throw line. He averaged 1.5 free-throw attempts as a freshman, 2.2 as a sophomore, 1.8 as a junior and 4.8 thus far as a senior. He needs to get more aggressive (nearly 60% of his attempts were jump shots last season), and add muscle to his frame. If Clark can maintain averages of 18 points and 6 rebounds, he may secure an invite to the Draft combine in Chicago. I was impressed with Clark’s performance, but considering his ordinary frame and senior status, I was not blown away.
The Rest
7) Jarrell Eddie — Senior, 22 years old
F, 6-7, 220
Season: 17.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.3 APG
Outlook: A 6-7 forward, nearly 70 percent of Eddie’s field goals (both as a junior and thus far as a senior) are jump shots. He primarily waits for catch and shoot opportunities on the perimeter. His 1.1 points per possession on jump shots ranks in the 60th percentile, and his 1.28 points per catch and shoot attempt ranks in the 73rd percentile.
Eddie is posting solid numbers this season, but he has also used 30% of Virginia Tech’s shots, the 100th highest percentage of shots used in the country.
I need to see more. He’s slow at 6-7, can’t finish consistently inside the 3-point line, and has difficulty creating off the dribble. Maybe I’m unfairly dismissing Eddie because he’s a senior and I’d never heard of him prior to last week, but I don’t think so. Consistency will make me a believer.
8) Denzel Valentine — Sophomore, 20 years old
G, 6-5, 225
Season: 7.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.5 APG
Outlook: Valentine is an ancillary cog in Michigan State’s high-powered attack, serving as a quasi-starter/second-string point guard. He has good size for a guard, but his 225-pound frame is more bulk that muscle, which limits his speed and burst.
Right now, his biggest strength is shooting the ball. Valentine is shooting 46% on jump shots, which make up nearly half of his shot attempts.
Valentine possesses a high basketball IQ, and often makes the “correct” basketball play. Defensively, though, Valentine struggles to contain shooters. He’s not very long, and his lack of speed hinders his ability to closeout on his man. He’s giving up 1.14 points per possession on opponent jump sots, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile nationally.
Defending Jump Shots
9) Isaiah Cousins — Sophomore
G, 6-4, 180
Season: 11.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3 APG
Cousins is a scrawny guard with a smooth off the dribble game. He has a New York toughness, and is perhaps the best shot creator on Oklahoma. To elevate his game, though, he will need to add weight to his frame.
10) Sterling Gibbs — Sophomore (Seton Hall via Texas), 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 185
Season: 16.3 PPG, 4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 12.3 FTA
Outlook: Although small in stature, Gibbs is one of the best players in the country at accumulating free throws. In fact, according to KenPom.com, Gibbs has the highest fouls-drawn-per-40-minutes and free throw rate in the country.
His game is predicated on getting into the paint and drawing fouls. With the new rules in college basketball, his free-throw attempts should stay at an all-time high all season.
However, when Gibbs doesn’t get foul calls, he struggles to impact the game. This was apparent vs. Virginia Tech, when he went 0-8 from the field and scored only four points. He also lacks NBA athleticism, and didn’t show much in terms of setting the tempo or commanding the offense. Others may disagree, but to me, Gibbs’ statistics misrepresent his actual basketball ability.
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 Draft