North Carolina 82, Kentucky 77
Saturday, December 14, 2013 | 5:15 p.m. EST | Dean Smith Center (Chapel Hill, NC)
North Carolina 7-2, Kentucky 8-3
Recap: In a game that featured 56 fouls and 88 free throws, North Carolina pulled away in the second half to defeat Kentucky, 82-77. James McAdoo posted 20 points/5 rebounds/4 assists, and Marcus Paige scored 21 second-half points to pace the Tar Heels. With Julius Randle a non-factor, Kentucky shot 41 percent as a team and committed 17 turnovers. This was a great win for North Carolina, as its now defeated Louisville, Michigan State and Kentucky this season.
*North Carolina guards PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald did not play due to suspension.
*This was my second time observing both North Carolina and Kentucky live this season.
Previous North Carolina Evaluation
Previous Kentucky Evaluation
Kentucky freshman Marcus Lee: 925-783-5351 (cell)
NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):
1) Julius Randle (FR, Kentucky): F, 6-9, 245, 19 years old
2) Aaron Harrison (FR, Kentucky): G, 6-5, 210, 19 years old
3) Andrew Harrison (FR, Kentucky): PG, 6-5, 210, 19 years old
4) James Young (FR, Kentucky): SG/SF, 6-6, 205, 18 years old
5) Willie Cauley-Stein (SO, Kentucky): C, 7-0, 245, 20 years old
6) James Michael McAdoo (JR, North Carolina): SF, 6-9, 230, 21 years old
7) Brice Johnson (SO, North Carolina): F, 6-9, 210, 19 years old
8) Marcus Paige (SO, North Carolina): PG, 6-1, 175, 20 years old
9) J.P. Tokoto (SO, North Carolina): SF, 6-6, 185, 20 years old
10) Alex Poythress (SO, Kentucky): F, 6-8, 240, 20 years old
Looking Ahead…
11) Dakari Johnson (FR, Kentucky): C, 6-11, 265, 18 years old
12) Joel James (SO, North Carolina): C, 6-10, 265, 2o years old
13) Kennedy Meeks (FR, North Carolina): PF/C, 6-9, 280, 19 years old
14) Nate Britt (FR, North Carolina): PG, 5-11, 165, 20 years old
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NBA Prospects
1. Julius Randle — Freshman, 19 years old (at time of Draft)
F, 6-9, 245
Season (30.5 mpg): 17.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.0 APG
52% FG, 8.5 FTA
Game (29 min): 11 points, 5 rebounds, 4 fouls, 4 turnovers
(3-9 FG, 5-6 FT)
Outlook: This was Randle’s “worst” performance of the season, if you will. 3-9 from the field, a season-low 5 rebounds, and got into early foul trouble. Randle briefly flashed his NBA strength and explosiveness, but overall, he had a marginal impact on Saturday.
North Carolina closed off Randle’s driving lanes, and he didn’t have much of an opportunity to assert himself and get touches.
Still, no reason to fret. It was only one game, and Randle can certainly use Saturday as a learning experience. While he shot 3-9, he was still able to get the shots that he wanted. He had some good looks that could’ve gone in.
As Randle continues to get acclimated to tough crowds (this was Kentucky’s first true road game of the season) and adjusts to the new rules in college basketball, I suspect he’ll learn from his mistakes in this game and come back stronger than ever.
Video: Randle Field Goals vs. UNC
Video: Misses, Turnovers vs. UNC
2. Aaron Harrison — Freshman, 19 years old
G, 6-5, 210
Season (30.3 mpg): 14.4 PPG, 3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 47% FG
Game (24 min): 20 points, 3 rebounds
8-12 FG
Outlook: Another impressive performance for Aaron Harrison, as he continues to score efficiently and with palpable confidence. In 24 minutes, he scored 20 points on 8-12 shooting, and showcased several “NBA moves” (in-and-out dribble, stutter step, pull up jumper, euro-step). He converted contested shots—essentially scoring at will—and displayed impressive scoring ability for a freshman.
His offense starts with his terrific jump shot, but he can also penetrate the lane. Quick first step, and excellent touch around the basket. Although he’s not the best athlete, Harrison has good extension on his layups, and he astutely angles his body through contact. I’m not sure how much of an impediment his athleticism is, but it hasn’t hindered him in college thus far.
It seems like Aaron has been “locked in” recently. He’s been effective and efficient over the past 5 games:
11/27 vs. Eastern Michigan: 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5-12 FG
12/1 vs. Providence: 15 points, 4 assists, 7-9 FG
12/6 vs. Baylor: 15 points, 6 assists, 4-9 FG
12/10 vs. Boise State: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, 6-12 FG
12/14 vs. North Carolina: 20 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 8-12 FG
Video: Scoring vs. UNC
Aaron played point guard for long stretches on Saturday, which I believe is a great sign. Although he’s a terrific scorer, he can also initiate offense for his teammates. He recorded zero assists, but directed the offense well and initiated ball movement. He’s more attractive in the NBA if he can play point guard, because he may lack the athleticism/versatility to defend. Playing Aaron at the point lent credence to tremendous upside.
Defense
Aaron has been a solid defender in both games I’ve seen. However, he needs to get stronger. As the video below shows, guys like James McAdoo bullied him in the paint without any resistance.
That said, I think this will come in time. He’s holding opponents to a solid .63 points per play (ranking in the 86th percentile nationally), and his physical profile/competitive nature suggests he will only improve as a defender. Long arms to disrupt passing lanes (like the second play in the clip below), and can contest shots on the perimeter. It’s still early, but I think Aaron has a chance to be an adequate defender.
Video: Man-to-Man Defense
3. Andrew Harrison — Freshman, 19 years old
PG, 6-5, 210
Season (29.4 mpg): 10.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, 6.7 FTA
Game (37 min): 17 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds
3-11 FG, 10-17 FTA
Outlook: Andrew’s shot wasn’t falling (3-10), but he still had a major impact. 17 free throws, 6 rebounds and 7 assists. Andrew is the ultimate “play starter” on the college level. He uses his size and ball handling to aggressively attack the paint, where he can finish through contact. He can also change direction on a dime and play at different speeds, which makes him dangerous from anywhere on the floor.
Most point guards have to contort their body/alter their shooting motion to get a clean look in the paint; Andrew doesn’t. He slices through the lane, absorbs straight-line contact and draws fouls. He also has a quick first-step, which helps him gather momentum towards the rim.
Video: Drawing Fouls vs. UNC
However, similar to his brother Aaron, Andrew isn’t very explosive (you won’t see him dunking on an opposing big man anytime soon).
By far, though, the biggest impediment to his game is his jump shot. He’s scoring a below average .945 points per jump shot attempt (ranking in the 46th percentile nationally), and he’s shooting 36% from three-point range. By my count, five of his eight missed shots on Saturday were jump shots. Simply put, he needs to improve his jump shot, which should (hopefully) come with time.
Video: Shot Attempts vs. UNC
Video: Turnovers
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Assists
Andrew showcased a willingness to swing the ball and get his teammates involved, finishing with a season-high 7 assists. He is starting to see plays develop before they happen in real time, which is a special quality for a freshman.
Furthermore, his change-of-pace ability keeps the opposition on its toes. I’m not saying Andrew is an elite passing point guard, but at 6-5, he has tremendous upside as an all-around playmaker.
Video: Assists vs. UNC
4. James Young — Freshman, 18 years old
G/F, 6-6, 205
Season (31.8 mpg): 14.1 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 2.4 Three-Pointers
Game (29 min): 16 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist
Outlook: Due to his size, athleticism and shooting range, Young is already one of the best scorers in the country, and a future lottery pick. He asserted himself offensively, shooting the ball and attacking the lane with power. Young displayed polished catch and shoot ability (he’s shooting 55% on unguarded catch and shoot attempts this season). He also displayed speed and athleticism to finish at the rim. He’s a dynamic scorer from the triple-threat stance.
Going forward, Young needs to improve his passing. He hardly facilitates, occasionally is a “ball stopper”, and hasn’t displayed awareness kicking out to shooters. He needs to slow down and read the defense, rather than have “tunnel vision” trying to score the ball. I think this will come with time.
Overall, Young has the physical attributes to be a terrific two-way NBA player: Shooter/athletic slasher/driver on offense, and solid on-ball defender.
Video: Attacking vs. UNC
Video: Misses vs. UNC
5. Willie Cauley-Stein — Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 7-0, 245
Season (26.5 mpg): 8.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.4 BPG
Game (29 min): 5 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks
2-3 FG, 1-2 FT
Outlook: Cauley-Stein continues to showcase his strengths—and limitations—with consistency. Right now, he’s a gangly 7-footer who plays above the rim and blocks shots.
Similar to his effort vs. Providence, Cauley-Stein protected the rim with great awareness, footwork and timing. He recorded 5 blocks, and his current 14.7% block percentage ranks 9th in the country. He also grabbed 12 rebounds (5 offensive, 7 defensive), and did so with relative ease against an undersized UNC frontline.
He runs the floor in transition as well as any big man in the country, although he must continue to hone his hand-eye coordination to finish on the move. In the half court, though, Cauley-Stein is a major “work in progress.” Only 19% of his shot attempts this season are post ups; he’s not much more than an alley-oop/put-back threat at this point. He attempted just three shots vs. North Carolina, two of which were at point-blank range.
In short, he doesn’t have much of an offensive “skill set.” While it’s true he’s been playing basketball for only a few years, if you’re going to invest a high draft pick in Cauley-Stein, you have to believe he has upside offensively. Before I make any definitive statements, I still want to see Cauley-Stein compete against elite college frontcourts.
If Cauley-Stein continues to dominate defensively and on the glass, while incrementally improving his back to the basket game, there will be tangible evidence of offensive upside.
Video: Cauley-Stein vs. UNC
6. James Michael McAdoo — Junior, 21 years old
SF, 6-9, 230
Season (31.1 mpg): 13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.6 SPG
42% FG, 59% FT
Game (37 min): 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals
4-6 FG, 12-19 FT
Outlook: McAdoo looked much better here than when I observed him vs. Louisville last month. Maybe he’s more comfortable playing at home, maybe it was because his team scored 24 points in transition (conducive to his strengths), or maybe it was because McAdoo is, well, actually getting better.
McAdoo ran the gamut offensively—made jump shots, scored with his back to the basket, nice floater in the lane, and finalized plays in transition. He displayed a high basketball IQ en route to drawing 19 free throws, and showcased elite “bounce” off the floor. He wasn’t perfect—wasted dribbles and unnecessarily picking up his handle—but all things considered McAdoo played well. McAdoo showcased an aggressiveness and motor that he’s lacked in the past.
This is to be expected from a junior, but it stood out nonetheless.
–
Last time I evaluated McAdoo, I listed “around the basket scoring” and “defending shooters” as strengths. Well, I neglected to mention his offensive rebounding/put-back skills.
McAdoo was very effective against a formidable Kentucky frontline. He only grabbed 5 rebounds, but had a clear nose for the ball and battled on every “hustle play.” When McAdoo secures a rebound, he quickly bounces off the floor.
His 1.17 points per offensive rebound last season ranked in the 71st percentile nationally, and gave credence to his bounce. McAdoo is a reliable rebounder from anywhere on the court.
Vision/Interior Passing
McAdoo displayed impressive passing instincts in the paint. He had a good feel for where his teammates were, and plays under control to “survey the scene” before taking action. I could be completely off here, but I think McAdoo has the potential to be a great passer at the next level. It’s another aspect of his often-overlooked versatility.
7. Brice Johnson — Sophomore, 19 years old (turns 20 on June 27, one day after NBA Draft)
PF, 6-9, 210
Season (20.6 mpg): 13 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG
3.4 Fouls Per Game, 60% FG
Game (24 min): 8 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks
4-10 FG
Outlook: Johnson was active and played with unmatched energy and intensity. He runs the floor well (track athlete background), and is gradually developing his back to the basket game. He has good touch to go along with his athleticism, and Johnson is the “x-factor” on this UNC team.
He’s also difficult to evaluate. On one hand, he has extraordinary physical tools, to go along with an 8.3% block percentage and a terrific 13.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. His athleticism allows him to play defense against stronger/bigger opponents, and he quickly covers ground on both ends of the floor. On the other hand, though, Johnson has a skinny frame (210 pounds), and offensively lacks the shooting touch to be a solid spot-up/stretch forward.
Johnson has extraordinary athleticism, is producing efficiently, and at this point has a ceiling that is hard to gauge. As I wrote in his previous evaluation,
“Johnson has a lot of work to do—adding significant amounts of muscle, expanding his range to 19-feet, and becoming a little smoother. But he also has some unteachable tools. Freak athlete, natural touch and a knack for scoring below the foul line. A unique player who will have to showcase more, but he’s on the right path.”
Not much has changed since then.
Video: Field Goals/Fouls Drawn vs. Kentucky
Video: Missed Field Goals
Video: Defending Shots vs. Kentucky (small snippet)
8. J.P. Tokoto — Sophomore, 20 years old
SF, 6-6, 185
Season (27.2 mpg): 10 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.6 APG
Improved to 38% on jump shots
Game (26 min): 15 points, 2 assists, 1 rebound
7-10 FG, 1-1 three-pointers
Outlook: Although he wasn’t the most talented, or “best” prospect playing, JP Tokoto definitely surprised me more than anyone else.
As I’ve previously written, Tokoto is an athletic 6-6 swingman with solid rebounding and slashing potential. But the Tokoto we saw vs. Louisville—horribly unpolished, in terms of shooting and handling the ball—and the Tokoto we saw vs. Kentucky were two completely different players. Against Kentucky, Tokoto shot the bal well, going 7-10 from the field and knocking down a 3-pointer. Regardless of the outcome of his jump shots, the fact that he looked comfortable shooting the ball was an encouraging sign. At various points, I was almost baffled how different he looked from when I first saw him.
That being said, I’m not yet sold on JP Tokoto, or on his “improved jump shot.” He still has an inconsistent release, can’t handle the ball against pressure, and, all things considered, this was only one game. One game is a good start though. If he can remain consistent with his jump shot, Tokoto will be on the right path and could eventually emerge as a second-round Draft pick.
Video: Field Goals
Video: Put-Backs / Offensive Rebounds
Video: Improved Shooting (small snippet)
Video: Opponent Field Goals
9. Marcus Paige — Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 175
Season (35.2 mpg): 19.2 PPG, 4.2 APG 3.1 RPG
90% FT
Game (37 min): 23 points, 2 assists, 2 rebounds, 3 steals
21 second half points, 10-10 FT
Outlook: It’s cliche, but it’s true: Marcus Paige is the consummate college point guard — Floor general, leader, always poised, and can single-handedly will his team to victory. Paige has a calculated maturity beyond his years, and I expect him to lead North Carolina deep into the NCAA Tournament this season. He had another terrific game here, scoring 21 second-half points and converting several nail-in-the-coffin baskets down the stretch.
Paige can clearly score from all three levels in college. The statistics back it up, too:
45% FGs
38% 3-pointers
1.091 points per play on shots from 17 feet to the 3-point line, ranking in the 88th percentile nationally.
Video: Playmaking (scoring) vs. Kentucky
All that being said, my first inclination is that Paige’s game will struggle to translate to the NBA. He’s a terrific scorer (particularly from deep), but at 6-1, Paige lacks the size and athleticism of a typical NBA point guard. I also have reservations about his defensive potential — what position can he defend?
He’s slow on his feet defensively, struggles to contain pick and roll penetration, and doesn’t have the lift to contest jump shots. Paige is allowing .87 points per play on defense, ranking in the 48th percentile nationally. Furthermore, opponents are scoring 1.3 points per pick-and-roll attempt, ranking Paige in the bottom 85th percentile of all players.
Video: Man to Man Defense
Perhaps Paige can become a Beno Udrih/Goran Dragic type of player in the NBA — a hybrid lead guard who shoots and passes, and can play off the ball. If he was a few inches taller, I’d say Paige is certainly an NBA player. But he doesn’t, and I’m not sure right now.
It’s foolish to bet against Paige just yet—he’s only 20, and has a lot more time to develop before he enters the Draft. But I’m hesitant. If Paige can sustain his assist numbers and improve his defense throughout the season, he’ll give us a reason to re-evaluate in the future.
10. Alex Poythress — Sophomore, 20 years old
F, 6-8, 240
Season (17.7 mpg): 4.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG
Game (24 min): 6 points, 8 rebounds, 5 fouls
Outlook: Poythress had a decent outing. He continues to play with a high motor, impacting the game with offensive rebounding and defensive energy/versatility. Poythress secured 5 offensive rebounds in only 24 minutes, and his 18.2% offensive rebounding percentage (the percentage of available offensive rebounds he gets while on the floor) ranks 12th in the country.
However, I still do not fully understand Poythress as an NBA prospect. Because he plays only 18 minutes per game, I think the best setting to evaluate Poythress is at Kentucky practice, where he’s competing in an NBA-level environment but still has the freedom to make mistakes he wouldn’t necessarily be able to make in a game.
Video: Offensive Rebounds vs. UNC
Video: Fouls, (Poor) Defense vs. UNC
Looking Ahead…
11. Dakari Johnson — Freshman, 18 years old
C, 6-10, 265
Season (9.9 mpg): 3.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Game (7 min): 2 points, 3 rebounds
Outlook: Johnson has great size and strength (6-10, 265), and has impressive footwork for a player his age. Throughout high school, he displayed potential as a “true big man” who is able to score with his back to the basket in the low post. It hasn’t been a seamless transition for him at Kentucky, but Johnson is a hard worker who should garner more minutes as the season goes on.
Right now, Johnson’s biggest weakness is a lack of athleticism, particularly his “lift.” Just by closely observing Johnson in warm ups, it was clear he has virtually no lift right now. This is also clear on tape, as he often establishes great position to secure a rebound but quickly surrenders to the force of gravity.
Johnson should always be solid defensively, which bodes well for his NBA potential, but he needs to show more on the offensive end to really be taken seriously. Right now he’s behind offensively. A good place to start would be attacking the rim with more conviction, regardless of his “lift.” Johnson always lacked a “mean streak” throughout high school, and it seems to be carrying over at Kentucky. He’d be a different player if he looked to throw the first punch.
12. Joel James — Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 6-10, 265
Season (13.9 mpg): 4.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG
Game (13 min): 5 points, 5 rebounds
Outlook: James caught my eye vs. Kentucky, and I think he’s one of the more underrated centers in the country.
Great size, but more importantly, he has a soft touch around the basket for a 6-10 center. He’s active on both ends of the floor, and has learned to utilize instincts such as pump-fakes and shoulder-dips well. Frankly, I’m kind of surprised that he’s not playing more minutes. James didn’t dominate vs. Kentucky, but he made his mark as a physical defender who cleans up on the glass.
His offense needs a lot of work, but it seems like he has a natural lefty touch from close range. They key will be to extend his range out to 15-feet. If he can do so, then he becomes an NBA prospect in my opinion. I think James should average a double-double on the college level. However, the problem is, he’s a 6-10, 265-pound center playing in a transition-heavy North Carolina system.
It’s obviously premature to draw conclusions, but based on 13 minutes of live action and some game film, I’m very intrigued by James’ combination of size and skill. I’m not sure if James is worthy of “NBA consideration” right now, but I believe he’ll resurface as his career progresses.
Video: Offensive Presence
Video: Put-Backs (Offensive Rebounding)
Video: Post-Up Misses
Video: Baskets in the Paint
13. Kennedy Meeks — Freshman, 19 years old
PF/C, 6-9, 280
Season (14.9 mpg): 7.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.4 APG
Game (19 min): 1 point (0-4), 4 rebounds, 2 blocks
Outlook: Meeks is one of the most enjoyable players to watch in college basketball, because he kind of defies basketball convention. He incredibly nimble on his feet for a 6-9, 280-pound player. He’s not very athletic, but instead uses a beautiful touch on a wide arsenal of offensive moves to score. He’s still young, but Meeks is scoring 1 point per post up possession, ranking in the 76th percentile nationally. He also uses his wide frame to secure rebounds at a high rate.
However, at only 6-9, Meeks is not going to be a center at the NBA level. He needs to shed weight, while keeping the strength to finish through bigger defenders. He also doesn’t have much bounce or lift off the ground, which could be problematic when defending/competing against NBA bigs. It’s still very early in his career—and this is merely an introduction, not an evaluation—but perhaps Meeks could be a DeJuan Blair type of prospect down the line.
Video: Post Up Makes
Video: Wide Body… but No Lift
14. Nate Britt — Freshman, 20 years old
PG, 5-11, 165
Season (25.3 mpg): 5.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.3 APG
Game (28 min): 8 points, 2 steals, 1 assist, 5 fouls
Outlook: Britt is too small and skinny right now.
Yes, he has terrific speed and court vision to push the tempo and make plays in transition. But he has limited range on his jump shot, and lacks explosiveness in open space. Britt often creates separation from his defender, only to miss by a wide margin. Crooked shooting form, and struggles against taller defenders because of his diminutive size. He also lacks explosiveness to finish at the basket. If he can shore up his jump shot, Britt could potentially transform his makeup as a player.
Video: vs. Kentucky
Video: Missed Field Goals (small snippet)
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft