Elfrid Payton
PG, 6-4, 185
6-8 wingspan
Junior, 20 years old
Season (36 MPG): 19 PPG, 6 APG, 6 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 3.6 TO
51% FG, 26% three-point (1.5 attempts)
61% FT (8.6 attempts)
25.2 PER, 0.90 Points Per Possesion
32% assist rate (46th nationally)
3.6% steal percentage (70th)
7 fouls drawn per 40 (43rd)
[wptab name=’Video Breakdown’]
Video Breakdown: Elfrid Payton
* I did not evaluate Payton in person this season. The following breakdown is based on research and film study.
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Strengths
• Size and Length
• Pick-and-Roll
• Playmaking / Court Vision
• Defense
• Youth/Upside.
Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement
• Shooting
• Developing Ball Handling
• Lackadaisical Play (Turnovers)
• Is he for real?
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Strengths
• Size and Length. Payton is a 6-4 point guard with a 6-8 wingspan; his physical makeup is impressive even by NBA standards. While he must fill out his 185-pound frame, Payton is a long, athletic, and a towering presence. He has a Rajon Rondo-esque appearance and feel to his game. Excellent on-ball defender, gets to the rim at will, and is an all-around playmaker. Conversely, and similar to Rondo in this respect, he’s sometimes careless with the ball and is limited beyond 15-feet.
Regardless, though, Payton is only 20 years old, possessing rare physical attributes for the position.
65% of Payton’s shot attempts this season came in the lane, and it’s no surprise—he has excellent size, athleticism and length to penetrate the lane and get into the teeth of the defense. He averaged 8.6 free throws per game, and drew 7 fouls per 40 minutes, which ranked 43rd nationally. His penchant for attacking the paint is partly attributable to a poor jump shot, but he also physically overpowers the first line of defense. He gets to the rim seemingly at will.
Transition
Nearly a quarter (24.4%) of Payton’s possessions last season came in transition, and it’s no surprise why. He has all the tools for uptempo success: size/length to corral rebounds (6 RPG), quickness to grab a rebound and start the break himself, court vision to set up teammates, and the ability to fly to the rim. Payton finished a solid 63% of his transition attempts, and this should translate to the NBA.
He routinely grabbed a defensive rebound, then started (and finished) the fast break going the other way.
Spot Up Scoring (head of steam)
ISO Scoring
Payton isn’t the most creative ball handler, but he can blow by defenders using his size and length, and thus he’s hard to contain when attacking with a head of steam.
Slashing
Payton’s lanky frame allows him to slide off the ball and still be effective. He was an excellent slasher last season, finishing 71% of his cutting attempts and recording 1.44 points per attempt. He displayed a high basketball IQ, in terms of going backdoor when opponents overplayed him.
Offensive Rebounding
As mentioned, Payton averaged 6 rebounds per game last season, including 2.3 O-boards per game. He’s scrappy and relentless in his pursuit. Payton’s second and third effort on the glass is impressive, and is a microcosm of how he approaches the game overall.
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• Pick-and-Roll Ability
Equipped with towering size and a smooth handle, Payton weaves through the defense, and adroitly maneuvers his way around the pick-and-roll. His jumper is a major work in progress, but Payton displayed the ability to attack the rim and explode through the defense when coming off a screen. He can make split-second decisions, with the physical attributes to convert his instincts into reality.
He should be a solid pick-and-roll threat in the NBA.
Pick-and-Roll Driving/Scoring
Pick-and-Roll Shooting (very small sample)
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• Playmaking / Court Vision
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, I think Payton really has excellent court vision. In addition to the statistics—6 APG, 32% assist percentage which ranked 46th nationally—Payton has great pace and simply commands the basketball like a point guard should.
He knows where his teammates are located, and uses his height to scan/navigate the floor and ultimately distribute the basketball. His playmaking and court vision are very impressive.
Drive and Dish
Drive and Kick
Transition Assists
Entry Passes / Feeding the Post
Court Vision / Hitting Cutters
Precise accuracy and timing on his passes.
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• Defensive Ability and Effort. Perhaps his most appealing attribute as an NBA prospect, Payton can literally envelop opposing point guards with his 6-8 wingspan. He needs to gain weight and fill out his frame, but he has quick hands to accumulate steals (2.3 SPG, 3.6% steals percentage ranked 70th overall), and he competes hard on every possession. He has the length to play off his man yet still contest, and is a nuisance for all types of point guards.
Most of all, though, it seems Payton loves to defend. He seemingly takes pride and responsibility in stopping his man, forcing turnovers and helping his team get defensive stops. For Payton, his defensive performance feeds his offensive confidence. He’s versatile enough to defend a handful of shooting guards if called upon.
While it’s true he played in the Sun Belt conference, I think his length and defensive intensity would’ve stood out regardless of competition.
It’s possible that Payton’s offensive game will not translate to the NBA—he has a shaky handle and poor jump shot, two vital skills for a point guard, and he needs to play alongside good shooters for his skill set to translate—but I’m confident he can at least make an impact defensively. He’s an excellent irritant.
Steals (Quick Hands, Length)
On-Ball Pressure
Pick-and-Roll Defense
Poor Defense (small snippet)
Here are some defensive hiccups, for the sake of trying to show a more complete picture. Payton still has room to improve defensively.
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• Youth/Upside. Payton entered college as a 17 year-old, and is only 20 years of age right now. He’s one of the youngest rising seniors in the country, and is an unfinished product. He will certainly face a transition to the NBA game, but he’ll also continue to develop, both mentally and physically.
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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement
• Shooting. Payton is limited—as of right now, almost incapable—beyond 15 feet. Only 32% of his shot attempts this past season were of the jump shot variety, where he converted a putrid 26%, and his 0.62 points per jump shot attempt ranked in the bottom 85th percentile nationally. Not a good shooter, to say the least.
Will his jump shot ever develop? Will opponents sag off him and just pack the paint? Opponents dared him to shoot in college and Payton couldn’t make them pay. He has awkward shooting mechanics, pulling and over-extending on his release.
He displayed a very poor jumper in college. This must improve in the NBA.
Catch-and-Shoot Struggles (4-22 this season)
Mid-Range Struggles (6-26)
Pick-and-Roll Misses
Missed FTs
Payton averaged an excellent 8.6 free throw attempts per game last season, and his 7 fouls drawn per 40 minutes ranked 43rd nationally. But he converted only 61% from the charity stripe. Yes, he can get into the paint at will, but what if he can’t hit free throws?
Made FTs (capable, but hardly)
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• Developing Ball Handling
ISO Misses
Payton was decent in isolation situations this past season, converting 40% of his attempts. On film, though, his strategy is clear: He relies on size and length to get by his defender, essentially forcing his way to the basket?
In other words, he doesn’t have an advanced—or crafty—handle right now.
Payton got into the paint using savvy, long strides, and straight-line attacking. It worked in college, but he’ll need some more variety in due time.
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• Lackadaisical Play (Turnovers). Payton needs to do a better job taking care of the basketball. As a point guard, right now he doesn’t value every possession like he should. He committed 3.6 turnovers per game last season, and it’s even worse on film.
While he does have excellent court vision, he overdoes it, and tries to get “cute.” A lot of careless passes, making simple entry passes risky, and just forcing the issue. Again, he’s only 20 years old, but his decision making and ball handling need some fine-tuning.
Careless / Forcing Passes
Bad Entry Passes
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• Is he for real? Payton played at a small school, and rapidly emerged after playing with the USA Under-19 team last summer.
But are we prisoners of the moment? Do we gravitate towards the underdog? Is Payton, well—is he for real?
It’s difficult to determine. He obviously looks like he can play. He’s big/long/athletic for a point guard, and he’s a jump shot away offensively. Defensively, he could be a stalwart from day one.
I haven’t been around the NBA much, and I watched only a handful of NBA games this past season, so I don’t have a true understanding of the competition Payton would be facing at the next level. But relative to the other point guards in this Draft, I don’t see why Payton can’t stack up.
In the right system (uptempo, defensive-oriented, wide spacing to use his length), Payton could be an x-factor point guard, who contributes in every aspect of the game. Michael Carter-Williams just won ROY with a similar physical makeup, and to me, Payton enters the NBA with a bigger chip on his shoulder and more intensity than Carter-Williams. He’s a fierce competitor, who shows up every day and buys in defensively. Only 20 years of age, Payton is just scratching the surface of his potential—which from my perspective, appears to be special. This type of point guard doesn’t grow on trees. In the right system, I’m buying.
[/wptab]
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