Author Archives: Eldon Khorshidi

Kaleb Tarczewski (Arizona)

Kaleb Tarczewski | Arizona | Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 7-0, 255

Last season (22 MPG): 6.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 54% field goal percentage, 2.5 personal fouls, 15 PER

Pace-Adjusted Per 40 Minutes: 11.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 4.5 personal fouls

Breakdown:

A top-10 recruit coming out of high school, Kaleb Tarczewski had a revealing freshman season. He flashed glimpses of immense potential, and also showcased where he needs to improve.

Tarczewski is a supremely athletic and mobile center, running the floor smoothly and getting up to finish put-backs and infuse activity at the rim. His scoring contributions were mostly in the paint last season, where 99% of his shot attempts came from (58.4% around the basket; 40.3% Post-Ups). He shot a solid 58% around the basket, and made his mark felt on the offensive glass, where his 11.9% offensive rebounding percentage was second in the Pac-12 and 129th in the country.

On defense, Tarczewski held opponents to .57 PPP, an exceptional rate that ranked in the top 93% of the country. His mobility and length on the block, coupled with strong defensive instincts, have created for a very high defensive ceiling.

With a maturing frame and skill set, Tarczewski’s NBA prospects look very promising. He should play at least 30 minutes per game this season, and starting alongside uber-athletes Aaron Gordon and Brandon Ashley in the frontcourt should bring out the best in Tarczewski.

Let’s break down the “glimpses,” both good and bad, that we saw last season:

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS (PUT-BACKS)

Tarczewski positions himself well and has the length/timing to grab a ton of rebounds, but he struggles to finish the second chance opportunities. His .931 PPP on put-backs ranked in the bottom 30% nationally, and even on video, it’s evident why. Tarczewski needs to improve his hand-eye coordination, and often seems to be “thinking” rather than playing instinctively. It’s almost as if he’s thinking “OK, I got the rebound. Let me regroup, bring the ball low, and now go up for a lay-up or dunk .” As he continues to repeat this process, he should gradually start reacting instead of thinking.

Also, when Tarczewski catches a put-back above the rim, he should never bring the ball down with him. At some point, put-back dunks (like we see in the last clip) should become routine.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Similar to his offensive rebounding, Tarczewski will need to improve his hand-eye coordination on the pick-and-roll. He finished a decent 1.273 PPP (88th percentile) on pick-and-rolls, and because he is a threat in the vicinity of the rim, defenses must always keep an eye on him. If Tarczewski can roll harder off the screen, he should get a ton of easy buckets next season. This is a potential breakout area for Tarczewski.

CONTESTING SHOTS

Because of his length and quickness, Tarczewski can contest shots both in the paint and on the perimeter. His length also allows him to keep his distance from the pick-and-roll ball handler (thus obstructing the roll man) while being able to contest a jumpshot from a foot away.

OVERALL

Tarczewski plays hard and looks like he can be a very good defender. The main question going forward is whether or not he can develop into a low-post threat — Put backs and pick-and-rolls have their respective value, but you need to have some semblance of an offensive game to make it in the NBA. With so much still unknown, this year will play an integral role in gauging Tarczewski’s NBA potential.

Josh Scott (Colorado)

Josh Scott | Colorado | Sophomore, 2o years old
PF, 6-10, 215

Last season (28.2 MPG): 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 19 PER

Breakdown:

Shot distribution:

13.7% Jump Shots
42.3% Around the Basket (not Post-Ups)
43.6% Post-Ups

Josh Scott’s freshman season was more of a teaser than anything else. His NBA future is contingent on how he continues to develop. Sure, this can be said for any college player, but for Scott, his potential is really the only exciting/enjoyable/inspiring facet.

Scott is a rangy and mobile big-man with a feathery touch around the rim using his left hand (he’s a lefty). He uses long strides and quickness to get ahead of the defense in transition, and many times last season finished fast breaks as the trailer.

In the half court, Scott mainly scores in three ways: 1) he slides into open spaces to get a quick shot (i.e. no dribbles) from the elbow or low post, or 2) he scores on a put-back — 18.4% of his shots came off offensive rebounds, and he posted a very solid 1.131 PPP—better than 67% of all college players—on such plays. Furthermore, his offensive rebound percentage of 11.8% was third in Pac-12 and 132 nationally, per KenPom.com. He’s an alert—albeit awkward, which we will get to—big man with a nose for the ball, and doesn’t need to be featured in the offense to be productive (again, last season he scored mostly on hustle plays and second-chance opportunities).

Let’s take a look at where Scott was most effective as a freshman

TRANSITION

15-FOOTERS

PUT-BACKS

Scott does a nice job in all three facets, but to make it on the NBA level, he needs to improve in several areas.

Firstly, his 215-pound frame isn’t doing him any favors. Opposing big men can easily bully Scott in the paint on both sides of the ball. He needs to gain 15-20 pounds to be able to bang down low. If he can add weight and maintain his touch and agility, Scott could considerably elevate his game.

Secondly, on film Scott appears “slow,” both in getting to a spot and also releasing his shot. He compensates with great size, but his going-through-the-motions appearance concerns me. Scott needs to improve his hand-eye coordination, as has difficulty catching the ball in stride. He also makes elementary mistakes, like holding the ball down low on entry passes and rebounds, which contributed to a 10.7% turnover percentage, ranking 5th worst in the Pac-12. Let’s take a look at Scott on the pick-and-roll, and also in turnover situations.

Scott can knock down jumpshots as a roll man, but he has difficulty finishing through contact, or even driving by a stationary defender. In terms of turnovers, Scott gets flustered under pressure, picks up his dribble, and keeps it low – a recipe for disaster.

OVERALL

Scott posted solid numbers as a freshman (19 PER, 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG), and validated his potential. Although he’s not the most athletic player, Scott’s size, rebounding, and inside touch make him an intriguing prospect. If he can gain weight and become more consistent on offense, he should emerge on the NBA Draft radar.

Mike Moser (Oregon)

Mike Moser | Oregon (via UNLV via UCLA) | Senior, 22 years old
6-8, 210

Last season (21.3 MPG): 7.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 14 PER

Per 40 Minutes Pace Adjusted: 12.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG

Breakdown:

After previous stints at UCLA and UNLV, Mike Moser enters Oregon as a fifth-year senior with a lot to prove. Moser had a great 2011-’12 campaign at UNLV, and after deciding to return to school, he suffered a dislocated elbow early last season that at the moment seems to have derailed his NBA plans.

Moser’s best skill is rebounding, as he uses his length and explosiveness to collect boards from all over the court. He can also shoot the ball semi-consistently. But he’s very skinny, and doesn’t have much of an offensive repertoire. Is Moser still—and does he have enough to be—a legitimate NBA prospect? Let’s take a look at some film:

FINISHING AROUND THE RIM

Moser has exceptional athleticism and strong hands to finish around the rim, both in the half court and transition. He can track down the ball in transition, and can rise for a dunk when set up in the half court. Although he’s not particularly skilled, he shot a solid 54.5% around the basket last season, lending credence to his potential in that area.

REBOUNDING

Moser’s calling card has always been rebounding. He 23.4% defensive rebounding percentage last season ranked 65^th in the country, and he was 9^th in defensive rebounding percentage during his “breakout” season two years ago.

PICK-AND-POP, SHOOTING

46.3% of Moser’s shot attempts last season were of the jumpshot variety. As seen in the clip above (apologies for the excessive “slow motion”), Moser has range on his jumpshot when given space. He’s agile enough to set wide screens and quickly pop out for a jumpshot, or to roll hard to the basket. If Moser has an NBA future, his jumpshot will play an integral role. He’s not a 3-point shooter, but Moser can knock it down from 17-feet.

DEFENSE

Moser’s 0.582 PPP defending jumpshots ranked in the 93rd percentile, as he has the length and athleticism to alter shots in his vicinity. However, because he is so frail, opposing bigs can easily back him down and bully him. His 1 PPP allowed on Post-Ups ranked in the bottom quarter of all college players, and this problem has followed him throughout his college career.

OVERALL

Nobody questions Moser’s athleticism and rebounding ability. But many have questions about his skinny frame, his lack of traditional post moves, how he’ll fit at Oregon and, frankly, what upside he has left. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, Moser has one last chance to prove himself.

Eric Moreland (Oregon State)

Eric Moreland | Oregon State | Senior, 21 years old
PF, 6-10, 215

Last season (30.7 MPG): 9.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 21.6 PER, 57% FG

Breakdown:

Eric Moreland’s NBA profile starts with his physical attributes. Standing 6-10 with a reported 7-4 wingspan, Moreland is a lanky power forward whose game is predicated on athleticism and energy. Moreland runs the floor well, is mobile and fluid, and can accumulate rebounds, deflections and blocks in a hurry

He has all the physical attributes, but Moreland must continue to develop his floor skills to be taken seriously at the next level. He made progress last season, improving his scoring average by more than four points per game. Moreland extended his range out to the foul line/elbow area last season, which was a huge step considering that two years ago he was essentially a center playing in a (skinny) power forward frame, which, obviously, was alarming.

Last season, Moreland finished seventh in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounds, 4th in defensive rebounds, 2nd in blocks, and 2nd in rebounds per game. His 27.5% defensive rebound percentage ranked 5th in the country, and his 8.1 block percentage was 68th nationally. He also shot the ball very efficiently, as his 59% effective field goal percentage ranked 64th in the country.

CUTTING

———

Moreland can undoubtedly use his bounce and length to make plays in the paint. Overall though, Moreland sill has a lot to improve on in the half court. At 6-10, only 6.5% of his offense came from the post. Now this would be OK if he did damage from the perimeter, but he was even worse there — his .462 PPP on “off the dribble” jumpshots ranked in the bottom 14% of all college players. He was also rarely used in the pick-and-roll last year, as he had one possession as the P&R ball handler, and only 6 possessions as the P&R screener.

Moreland can score in the half court, but in order to do so he needs someone to facilitate for him. He does a lot of work catching the ball on the move, or when the defense is out of position. But in terms of pure isolation and/or spot-up situations, he possesses neither the necessary ball handling nor shooting skills to be effective.

SHOOTING

As the video shows, Moreland’s shooting form is all sorts of whacky. He does a fade-away leg-kick on his jumpshots. Hopefully he worked on his shooting form over the summer — jumping straight up and down, correct finger and hand placement, and releasing the ball at its highest point. That’s a broken jumpshot for sure.

———

DEFENSE

Moreland’s defense is also—quite literally—a step behind. His .9 PPP allowed ranked in the bottom 27% of the country, and his rebounding and shot blocking prowess notwithstanding, Moreland can be exposed in the half court. Let’s take a look at three clips from a game against Towson where Moreland struggles on defense.

In this clip, Towson’s Jerrelle Benimon swiftly blows by Moreland for an easy reverse layup. Moreland’s initial stance is forcing Benimon to go baseline, so the Towson forward takes what is given for the easy bucket. This is due to a lack of focus early on in the possession and a lack of foot speed once he’s beat.

In this clip, Moreland’s skinny frame gets taken advantage of. Using three dribbles, Benimon takes Moreland from the 3-point line to the basket for an easy bucket. Moreland applied zero resistance.

This basket is directly attributable to a lack of focus early in the possession. Towson guard Mike Burwell catches the ball in rhythm and simply goes up for the shot. Moreland—even with his freakish length—is late to recover.

———

OVERALL

Moreland has physical attributes NBA teams covet, but his skill set is a few steps behind right now. The odds are against him, but if he can develop his handle, improve his focus and shooting form—all while continuing to rebound and be active on defense—he’ll have a chance at the NBA.

Jordan Bachynski (Arizona State)

Jordan Bachynski | Arizona State | Senior, 24 years old
C, 7-2, 250

Last season (25.4 MPG): 9.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.4 BPG, 21.5 PER

Breakdown:

Jordan Bachynski is a tough prospect for me to evaluate. He enrolled as a 21-year-old freshman at Arizona State, after spending two years on a Mormon mission.

So, is he a grown man playing against boys, or is he merely catching up to where he should be? Has Bachynski already reached his ceiling, or is he still trending upwards? I am honestly unsure of how to approach his evaluation.

Age notwithstanding, Bachynski emerged on the radar during his “junior” season. Offensively, he is a traditional back to the basket center, priding himself on setting screens, finishing in the paint and blocking shots on defense. The lefty showcased nice touch inside, utilizing hook shots over his right shoulder to score. He has strong hands and consistently leverages himself to catch the ball deep in the paint, minimizing the distance between himself and the basket, in turn creating easier scoring opportunities.

Bachynski is an above-average rebounder for his size. 15.4% of his shot attempts last season came on offensive rebounds, where he shot a very good 1.225 PPP (78th percentile). His most promising skill, though, may be his shot blocking ability—Bachynski’s 13.5 block percentage was 7^th best in the country. He possesses a rare skill set (the “traditional” center skill set), which has intrigued scouts.

Let’s take a look at some film:

POST-UPS

Bachynski shot 58% from the field last season, with over 90% of his shot attempts coming in the paint. As mentioned, Bachynski gets in position and finishes with a soft touch inside. That being said, he must continue to get stronger, as he will face more physical (and more skilled) defenders if he gets an NBA opportunity. Bachynski must also develop his right hand, as he shot with his left hand on 80% of his post-up attempts.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Standing at 7-2, operating out of the pick-and-roll will be essential to Bachynski’s NBA prospects. 13.6% of Bachynski’s offense came in pick-and-roll, where his 1.426 PPP ranked in the 95^th percentile nationally.

As the film shows, he has impressive timing and finishing ability off the pick-and-roll, and he should continue to develop this skill while playing with Jahii Carson. His pick-and-roll skills, combined with his defense, could be his potential calling card.

SHOT BLOCKING

He stands his ground in the paint, slides his feet well and has great timing on blocks. Great footwork, patience, and defensive instincts make Bachynski one of the best shot blockers in the nation.

OVERALL

Bachynski has something you can’t tech (size), and two NBA skills (finishing on the pick-and-roll and shot blocking) that teams often covet. With Arizona State looking like a legitimate NCAA Tournament team, Bachynski will have a chance to assert himself both in-conference and nationally this season. I’m not sure if he’s already past his prime, but if Bachynski can get physically stronger and improve his right hand, a team could take a flyer on him in the second round.

Jordan Loveridge (Utah)

Jordan Loveridge | Utah | Sophomore, 19 years old
SF/PF, 6-6, 220

Last season (31.7 MPG): 12.1 PPG, 7 RPG, 2 APG, 17.6 PER

Breakdown:

After a “breakout” freshman season in which he averaged 12.1 points and 7 rebounds per game, swingman Jordan Loveridge will now be the focal point of Utah’s offense, and inevitably, of all opponent scouting reports. A top-100 recruit coming out of high school, Loveridge has a silky-smooth jumpshot with a quick first step and developing mid-range game. He possesses a high basketball IQ, and if he can develop an off the dribble game, has a chance to be an NBA player.

After weighing 230 pounds last year, Loveridge has reportedly shed 15 pounds this offseason which should pay dividends on the court. He always had a deceptive first step, but he may now be able to gather a burst of explosion that was absent last season. All in all, with a strong jumpshot and impressive rebounding numbers, Loveridge has a chance to be one of the most productive players in the Pac-12 this season.

Shot distribution: 51.3% Jump Shots | 33.6% Around the Basket | 11.4% Post-Ups | 3.7% Runner

SHOOTING

Seventy-five percent of Loveridge’s jumpshots were of the mid-range and three-point variety, where he averaged a solid 1.0 PPP. Loveridge has beautiful form on his shot; he sets his feet, releases the ball at its highest point and follows through. He sometimes brings the ball behind his head, but overall he is a consistent catch-and-shoot player.

NOT GREAT IN ISOLATION, THOUGH

When defenders close out on him, though, Loveridge struggles to attack off the dribble. He produced a below-average .559 PPP (ranking in the bottom 23% of all players) in isolation situations, in addition to a 23.5% turnover rate.

Perhaps his isolation struggles were directly correlated to his heavy frame last year, and now that he’s trimmed down he’ll be able to make more of an impact. One way or another, if he wants to be an NBA player, Loveridge will need to expand his offensive arsenal to be more than just a catch-and-shoot threat.

OVERALL

With a trimmed down frame, Loveridge is in a great position to build on his impressive freshman campaign. He should once again lead the Utes in scoring, and continue to expand his offensive arsenal. If he makes progress this season, he should draw legitimate attention from NBA scouts.

Xavier Johnson (Colorado)

Xavier Johnson | Colorado | Sophomore, 20 years old
SF, 6-7, 220

Last season (24 MPG): 8.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 15.3 PER, 52% FG

Xavier Johnson had a solid freshman season as a role player for the Buffaloes. Although not the most athletic player, Johnson is a smooth left-handed swingman with good size and—as it appears on film—the ability to stick to his strengths (shooting, penetrating the lane, and having the length to disrupt movement on the perimeter).

Shot distribution: 48.1% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 35.1% Jump Shots | 11.9% Post-Ups | 4.9% Runner

The majority of Johnson’s baskets may have come “around the basket”, but most of those shots were of the shooting variety. He posted an above average 1.191 PPP around the basket (70th percentile), and an excellent 1.123 PPP on jump shots (89th percentile). As a freshman, Johnson capitalized on the attention defenses placed on Andre Roberson and Spencer Dinwiddie, creating space for him to either have an open jump shot or a less-crowded path to the basket.

SHOOTING

While Johnson’s freshman campaign was highlighted by his shooting (44% from three-point range, 1.123 PPP on jump shots), taking a closer look at his game reveals a distinction in the type of shooting he’s actually good at right now. Johnson is an excellent catch-and-shoot player, but struggled last season in shooting off the dribble.

The numbers:

Catch-and-Shoot (24.9% of the time): 1.37 PPP (95th percentile)

Jump Shot off the dribble (9.2% of the time): .412 PPP (10th percentile)

The film:

CATCH AND SHOOT

OFF THE DRIBBLE

With Andre Roberson no longer part of the team, Johnson role will expand this season, and we will see if he’s worked on shooting off the dribble. This involves developing his ball handling, timing and overall feel. If has taken the necessary strides, he’ll expand his game even further, as the defense will play him tighter which will inevitably lead to more driving lanes.

DEFENSE

Johnson struggled across the board on the defensive end. Sure, he has an NBA body on first glance, but his lack of lateral quickness/explosion and his relatively skinny frame leave him vulnerable. Bigger guys can muscle him and use their athleticism to score in the paint. Johnson will have to add weight and also commit to battling on every possession to become a reliable—or at least an adequate—defender.

(LACK OF) POST DEFENSE

OVERALL

Johnson joins a talented crop of NBA hopefuls on Colorado’s roster (Spencer Dinwiddie, Josh Scott, etc), but improvement is the name of the game. I’ll be watching to see if—and how—his jumpshot and body have developed.

Devon Collier (Oregon State)

Devon Collier | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
F, 6-8, 215

Last season (25.5 MPG): 12.6 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 23.4 PER

Devon Collier is a smooth athlete with soft touch deep in the paint. Collier has an uncanny nose for the ball, ranking in the top-10 in every offensive rebound category in the Pac-12. He is also extremely efficient, both in the half court and transition.

His 23.4 Player Efficiency Rating ranked fourth in the Pac-12; his 51.5% field goal percentage, which was second-best in the Pac-12, was actually a step back from his 61.5% field goal percentage as a sophomore. For his career, Collier is shooting 58% from the field. He also gets to the free throw line often, shooting the fifth most FTs in the conference.

All that being said, there’s one fundamental problem in Collier’s make-up that overshadows—and even undermines—all of his effectiveness: Collier is a power forward living in a small forward’s body.

At 6-8 and 215 pounds, Collier hasn’t attempted a 3-pointer in all three years of his college career. Furthermore, 85% of his shot attempts last season were of the “Post-Up” or “around the basket” variety. On the other hand, jump shooting only made up 9.4% of his shot attempts, and he shot a very poor .348 PPP on such attempts (ranking in the bottom 3% nationally).

Let’s take a look at the film:

SHOOTING (17-feet and in):

In many of the clips above, Collier literally passes up wide open 18-footers for contested 15-footers. His form is totally crooked. He brings his feet together when he shoots, all while fading diagonally, sometimes backwards and other times forwards. His shooting elbow—which should ideally be at a 90-degree angle—is completely crooked as well. I’m not saying his form is beyond repair, but in his first three seasons, Collier hasn’t given us much of a reason to believe he’ll expand his game. He should be spending countless hours in the gym working on reinventing his shot.

——

TRANSITION

Collier’s 1.148 PPP in transition ranked in the 67th percentile of all players. He runs the floor well — he’s quick and bouncy, and can finish through contact.

——

OVERALL

Collier is efficient, and has a propensity to accumulate rebounds and get to the foul line. But as a 22 year-old senior, as a 6-8 power forward, he must develop even a semblance of a jumpshot to be considered at the NBA level.

Eric Mika

Eric Mika — PF, 6-10, 230
Freshman, 19 years old

Season (25.6 mpg): 11.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1 APG
53% FG, 5.5 FTA (62% FT), 3.2 fouls

Quincy Lewis (high school coach): 801-368-4622

Hometown: Alpine, UT

“Under The Radar” College Freshmen

Taking a look at 10 freshman who aren’t getting their due recognition as “impact freshmen” and/or NBA prospects. This list excludes McDonald’s All-Americans, and recruits from the “top classes” (Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina). I have only included prospects who I have seen live.

These are players who, in varying degrees, should be considered at the NBA level.

Players ranked in order of NBA potential.

1) Robert Hubbs, Jr | Tennessee
SG, 6-5, 190

Quick Thoughts: It wasn’t long ago when Hubbs was an unknown prospect, both on the East coast and nationally. This was because a) he’s from Newburn, TN (population 3,500) and he played at little-known Dyer County HS, b) he didn’t play high-major AAU until the summer before his senior year, and c) he has a laid-back personality, shying away from attention and adulation.

In my opinion, Hubbs is the most underrated freshman in the country. I’ve seen him compete on three occasions, each time against completely different players: He had his way against point guard Andrew Harrison, shooting guard Aaron Harrison, and small forwards Troy Williams (Indiana) and Kuran Iverson (Memphis).

A 6-5, 190-pound shooting guard, Hubbs is a smooth scorer with shooting range and next-level body control. He is “long and fluid” — picture a young Tracy McGrady, not in terms of talent but in the sense that when Hubbs leaves the ground he’s acrobatic and athletic enough to figure it out mid-air. Hubbs can score from all three levels (perimeter, mid-range, at the rim). He is also extremely coachable—a well-mannered, I’m here to learn and play hard attitude.

His level of success at Tennessee will, obviously, be more indicative of his NBA potential than the high school circuit was. But in terms of freshmen shooting guards, Hubbs—who is currently ranked the 169th prospect in the 2014 Draft by ESPN’s Chad Ford—is right there with Aaron Harrison (ranked 28), Keith Frazier (91) and Wayne Selden (12).

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Jarnell Stokes (Jr)
F — Jeronne Maymon (Sr)
G — Jordan McRae (Sr)
G — Josh Richardson (Jr)
G — Antonio Barton (Sr)

Tennessee features a veteran backcourt (particularly playing behind senior Jordan McRae), which means Hubbs will most likely come off the bench early in the season. However, someone close to the Tennessee program recently told me Cuonzo Martin recognizes Hubbs’ immense talent and potential, and regardless if he’s a starter or reserve, Hubbs will be featured in the offense this year.

Also, Tennessee has a dearth of players who can facilitate, so Hubbs may have to create for himself as a freshman, which is not an easy task.

Memphis transfer Antonio Barton is a score-first point guard; Jordan McRae is a ball-dominant shooting guard—he averaged 34 minutes per game and used 27.8% of his team’s shots when on the floor, the highest rate on the team; and Josh Richardson’s role will be as an on-ball defender. Freshman guard Darius Thompson could be the team’s best passer, but to an uncertain extent.

If Hubbs can usurp Richardson or Barton in the starting lineup, or even if he’s given a major bench role, he should emerge on the NBA radar at some point this season.

2) Jermaine Lawrence | Cincinnati
F, 6-9, 200

Quick Thoughts: Lawrence fell out of the national spotlight after he badly injured his wrist at the Pangos All-American camp in July 2012, which eventually required surgery. As a result, Lawrence spent most of his senior season rehabbing, and several college coaches/media outlets shied away following the injury.

Lawrence’s wrist is now fully healed, and the 6-9 forward is one of the most versatile freshmen in the country. He needs to get stronger, but his athleticism, slashing ability and versatility on both ends make him a valuable weapon.

— Offensively, he can score both inside and outside, has great vision for his size, is extremely agile and mobile. He can play both positions on the pick and roll, and uses his athleticism and speed to collect rebounds in traffic. The key to his development is improving his shooting and assertiveness. I’ve seen Lawrence excessively defer to teammates, even as far as passing up wide open looks.

— Defensively, Lawrence can block shots and legitimately guard three positions (SG, SF, PF). He’s one of those players whose potential is viscerally exciting, because it’s just so transparent.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Justin Jackson (Sr)
F — Titus Rubles (Sr)
F — Shaq Thomas (So)
G — Sean Kilpatrick (Sr)
G — Ge’Lawn Guyn (Jr)

Lawrence has an opportunity to make an impact early in his career, because his versatility on both ends makes him a difficult matchup. He will either start or be the first reserve off the bench, and could average close to a double-double as a freshman.

3) Kuran Iverson | Memphis
SF, 6-8, 205

Quick Thoughts: Iverson was heavily recruited as sophomore (ranked in the top-5 nationally), then while dealing with tendinitis in his left knee during his sophomore and junior summer, he missed many tournament events and fell out of the recruiting picture.

Now, he’s fully healthy and should make an immediate impact in college. Iverson is a versatile forward in the same mold as Jermaine Lawrence—he can play either forward position, with a developing handle that allows him to take bigger defenders out to the perimeter, which creates a mismatch. There is a lot of overlap in each player’s skills, but what differentiates Iverson is his strength and ball handling. Iverson has the ability to grab a rebound and lead the fast break.

The next step in Iverson’s development is for him to be more assertive and focused, as he’s prone to “coast”. When he’s locked in, though, Iverson’s size and skill-set make him a dangerous weapon.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Shaquille Goodwin (So)
F — Austin Nichols (Fr)
F — Chris Crawford (Sr)
G — Geron Johnson (Sr)
G — Joe Jackson (Sr)

Memphis showcased a balanced scoring attack last season, with four players scoring in double-figures, including returnees Joe Jackson, Chris Crawford and Geron Johnson. They weren’t the most efficient, as the four aforementioned players all ranked below the 80th percentile in points per possession, but nonetheless they were balanced.

The Tigers’ strength was–and will continue to be–their supreme athleticism, which allows them to play uptempo and score in transition. Memphis feeds off steals, deflections and rebounds to get out in transition, and Iverson fits in perfectly. Regardless if he starts or comes off the bench, Iverson can realistically spell any position other than point guard, and should have no problem playing 15-25 minutes per game as a freshman. Because Iverson can set up anywhere (top of the key, wing, high post, baseline, front of the defensive press), coach Josh Pastner can get creative in utilizing his versatility, which is exciting.

4) Troy Williams | Indiana
SF, 6-7, 195

Quick Thoughts: The nephew of AAU coach Boo Williams (who coached and mentored Allen Iverson and Alonzo Mourning, among others), I believe Troy Williams should’ve been a McDonald’s All-American last season.

Williams’ profile starts with his athleticism and energy. He’s explosive and fast in transition, and can use his length and athleticism to finish over bigger defenders at the rim. Although he doesn’t have a consistent shooting stroke, Williams has shown improvement pulling-up off the Athletic, fast, relentless effort, but he needs to develop his offensive skill set.

Defensively, Williams has the requisite length and quickness to be a terrific defender, but he gets overzealous and gambles a lot. This tendency to gamble was apparent at the Hoop Hall Classic last winter, when Williams was guarding Jabari Parker. He repeatedly lunged for steals rather than move his feet, stay with his man and trust his length to contest shots defensively.

Overall though, when he gets in a rhythm, Williams is a terrifying player on both ends of the floor, due to his athleticism, quickness and effort. He has NBA “flying” ability and blazing speed, and is gradually cultivating the skills to along with it. Certainly an interesting prospect to watch.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Luke Fischer (Fr)
F — Noah Vonleh (Fr)
F — Will Sheehey (Sr)
G — Evan Gordon (Sr)
G — Yogi Ferrell (So)

Williams has been sidelined with a hurt wrist for much of the preseason, but even still, he should get a chunk of minutes this season because Indiana is so young. In fact, because Evan Gordon and Yogi Ferrell are both under 6-foot-2, I think Tom Crean will be inclined to at least experiment with Williams in the starting lineup. Pairing Williams with Ferrell and Noah Vonleh will make for a transition-heavy approach that should allow Williams to showcase his talents.

5) Jordan Mickey | LSU
F, 6-8, 220

Quick Thoughts: Mickey will probably spend at least three years in Baton Rouge, and will need to improve in several areas. Some believe Mickey’s NBA prospects should be revisited down the line. From my perspective, though, Mickey is “on the cusp” of breaking through.

Right now, Mickey is a bouncy athlete with tenacious rebounding instincts and excellent on-ball defense. He (sort of) reminds me of Andre Roberson – a tenacious defender with high activity and an energy level that never wanes. He projects to continue improving, and if he can tighten his ball handling and extend his jumpshot, he has a chance to be an NBA player. I believe Mickey is a jump shot away from cementing himself as a first-round draft pick.

He needs a better jump shot, but Mickey has NBA athleticism, a strong motor, attacks the rim with a purpose, and has great defensive instincts to track down shots in the open floor.

He and Jarrell Martin will be fun to watch next year, and at some point Mickey should crawl his way into the NBA conversation.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Johnny O’Bryant (Jr)
F — Jarrell Martin (Fr)
F — Shavon Coleman (Sr)
G — Andre Stringer (Sr)
G — Anthony Hickey (Jr)

This is difficult to project. Coach Johnny Jones will certainly let his freshmen compete for playing time (Martin will start), but I’m not sure where Jones will play Mickey this year. Is Mickey ready to play on the wing? Will Coach Jones let the 6-8 Mickey play exclusively down low? Maybe he’ll use Mickey on the baseline, or on the bottom of a 2-3 zone, utilizing his activity and athleticism to make things happen and create transition opportunities.

My take is: Mickey’s simply too talented to sit on the bench. But Jones will take it slow, gradually increasing Mickey’s minutes, as there’s no rush on this veteran-laden team.

6) Devin Williams | West Virginia
PF, 6-8, 200

Quick Thoughts: Devin Williams is the quintessential Bob Huggins player – A rugged, ultra-tough throwback power forward, raised in the rough neighborhoods of Cincinnati.

Williams embraces contact and physicality, and attacks the glass tenaciously. He has a wide and chiseled frame—high school coach Kevin Boyle coined Williams as being “built like Superman”. He positions himself on the boards, sets strong screens to open up shooters, and consistently knocks down a 17-foot jumpshot.

Picture a less athletic Udonis Haslem, or more recently, a less athletic but more skilled Jackie Carmichael.

Williams is undersized at 6-8, and he plays below the rim, but his ultra-strong frame and tenacious mindset made him into one of the best rebounders in high school basketball. To elevate his game, he’ll need to improve his defensive footwork and show what type of on-ball post defender he is.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Kevin Noreen (Jr)
F — Devin Williams (Fr)
G — Terry Henderson (So)
G — Eron Harris (So)
G — Juwan Staten (Jr)

Playing on a young West Virginia team that lost seven players from last season, Williams will have an opportunity to test–and showcase–his skills right away. With fellow freshman Elijah Macon still awaiting NCAA clearance, Williams should start at power forward.

It won’t be easy to replace Aaric Murray, who led West Virginia with 5.8 rebounds per game last season and was an efficient scorer. But if someone can do it as a freshman, it’s Williams and his college-ready body.

7) Shannon Hale | Alabama
SF, 6-8, 210

Quick Thoughts: Hale committed to Alabama during his sophomore season and he remains under the radar. The 6-8 small forward is a decent athlete, with a high basketball IQ and natural feel for the game.

He’s a great shooter from the elbows, and is developing into a catch-and-shoot player from 3. His game reminds me of Jared Dudley, though Hale is skinnier and, obviously, less skilled.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Nick Jacobs (Jr)
G — Retin Obasohan (So)
G — Levi Randolph (Sr)
G — Rodney Cooper (Jr)
G — Trevor Releford (Sr)

Alabama returns only nine scholarship players, so Hale should get minutes early in the season. But it won’t be easy to make an impact considering Alabama’s returning players are mostly scoring-oriented. Releford used 24% of the available shots when he was on the floor; Cooper 22.2%; Jacobs 20.1%; Obasohan 18.9%; and Randolph 17%.

I predict that Hale won’t have a huge impact this season, but will emerge on the national radar as a sophomore and junior. I’m not sure if Hale has NBA upside, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on in the SEC.

8) Christian Wood | UNLV
PF, 6-10, 210

Quick Thoughts: Wood fell under the radar because he committed to UNLV at the beginning of his junior year. He possesses a unique skill set for his size, as he can shoot the 3-ball at 6-10.

His jumpshot is smoother and more consistent than, say, freshman-year Isaiah Austin. He’s only starting to scratch his basketball potential—he has virtually no inside game right now, and is too skinny to finish through contact—but his size and shooting skills are there. If he adds muscle to his frame and displays any semblance of interior skills, Wood should earn playing time at UNLV.

Wood is young for his grade, and his combination of shooting and athleticism make him a prospect worth keeping track of.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Khem Birch (Jr)
F — Roscoe Smith (Jr)
G — Bryce Dejean-Jones (Jr)
G — Jelan Kendrick (Jr)
G — Deville Smith (Jr)

I’m not sure how Wood has physically developed since last season, but if he’s gained weight, he should see minutes in UNLV’s frontcourt rotation. Dave Rice has been known to play freshman, and considering Wood’s upside, I expect him to garner playing time from the start.

9) Eric Mika | BYU
C, 6-10, 220

Quick Thoughts: Even as a freshman, Mika should be one of the best rebounders and most physical centers in West Coast Conference, if not the entire country. He was the focal point of Lone Peak High School, which at one point was ranked No. 1 in the nation.

Mika is a traditional low-post center on the high school level, as he controls the paint, knows how to seal his man and can finish through contact. Mika doesn’t need to be “featured” to be effective, as he does the “little things” – setting hard screens, actively roaming the paint and attacking the glass.

If he can develop a 15-foot jumper, Mika should be an All-League player at BYU. The “problem”, though, is that Mika will depart on his Mormon mission after his freshman year, which could stunt his development. It will be an interesting situation to monitor.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Eric Mika (Fr)
F — Nate Austin (Jr)
G — Kyle Collinsworth (So)
G — Tyler Haws (Jr)
G — Matt Carlino (Jr)

Replacing Brandon Davies is not going to be easy, but Mika has the talent to do just that. In addition to getting post touches, I expect Dave Rose to use Mika as the team’s primary screener and to have him run the baseline. If he can stay out of foul trouble, Mika will be featured in every game.

10) DeAndre Bembry | St. Joseph’s
SF, 6-6, 165

Quick Thoughts: Bembry is a lanky swingman whose foundation is energy and activity.

That doesn’t mean he’s not skilled, though — he’s a good finisher, and plays suffocating defense thanks to long arms, quick feet and a relentless motor. Bembry is always locked in and as a result has a nose for the ball.

If he can develop perimeter skills to be a threat on offense (he showed flashes in the Jordan Brand regional game, scoring 26 points including three 3-pointers), Bembry could make noise in the A-10, considering how good of an on-ball defender he is. He’s not Briante Weber, but he should make a defensive impact from the onset.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
F — Halil Kanacevic (Sr)
F — Ronald Roberts Jr (Sr)
F — DeAndre Bembry (Fr)
G — Langston Galloway (Sr)
G — Chris Wilson (Jr)

Bembry should start at small forward and play significant minutes as a freshman. He will have the opportunity to showcase defensive skill and offensive potential.

————–

In addition to those 10, here are five freshmen (in no particular order) who don’t look to be NBA caliber, but are nonetheless underrated and I think have a chance to develop beyond their perceived ceiling.

Cullen Neal | New Mexico
PG, 6-4, 170

Quick Thoughts: Neal is a classic example of why I take the well-known recruiting websites with a grain of salt – in April, when he de-committed from St. Mary’s to play for his father at New Mexico, ESPN automatically adjusted his profile from a 3-star, unranked recruit to a 4-star, Top 100 recruit. Simply because he switched schools.

Neal has great size at 6-4, has a terrific jumpshot and a ton of moxie. I’ve never seen him in a game situation, but I’ve observed individual workouts, and Cullen’s legitimate NBA-range and tight handle have always impressed me.

Although he won’t overwhelm with natural talent or physical gifts, Neal plays with a chip on his shoulder and is feisty competitor. He can deliver on-the-money passes using either hand. Under the tutelage of his father—former Georgia Tech standout and current New Mexico head coach, Craig Neal—Cullen is mentally years ahead of his age.

I think defense will determine Neal’s ceiling – if he proves to be a capable defender in the Mountain West, he may open some eyes. He reminds me of a passing-oriented Nate Wolters.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Alex Kirk (Jr)
F — Cameron Bairstow (Sr)
F — Deshawn Delaney (Jr)
G — Hugh Greenwood (Jr)
G — Kendall Williams (Sr)

With Tony Snell leaving, there is an opening in the UNM starting lineup, and the final spot will be decided based on what Coach Neal thinks the team can use. If he wants another ball-handler in the backcourt, he’ll start Cullen. If he wants an athletic swingman, he’ll start JUCO import Deshawn Delaney. Regardless, Cullen should get minutes as a freshman, either spelling Kendall Williams/Hugh Greenwood, or playing alongside them. And once Williams leaves for the NBA, Cullen will presumably take the point guard reigns for what should be a Top-40 team.

Kendall Yancy-Harris | Texas
PG, 6-4, 195

Quick Thoughts: The younger brother of former Miami Heat guard Terrel Harris, Kendal is an aggressive combo guard with impressive scoring ability. Harris finalizes plays in the open floor and loves to attack the paint. To elevate his game, he’ll need to develop his jump shot, particularly off-the-dribble. Also, although he is a good finisher, he often has tunnel vision and carelessly (and unsuccessfully) attempts to drive through multiple guys in the painted area.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Cameron Ridley (So)
F — Jonathan Holmes (Jr)
G — Demarcus Holland (So)
G — Martez Walker (Fr)
G — Kendal Yancy-Harris (Fr)

With Javan Felix out indefinitely (hip surgery), Harris may be inserted as the team’s starting point guard, pitting him against some of the Big 12’s elite backcourts (Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, etc).

Dayshon Smith | Dayton
PG, 6-3, 165

Quick Thoughts: Smith’s scrawny build repelled high-major schools, but in a few years some coaches could be wondering how they overlooked him. Nicknamed “Scoochie”, Smith was one of the best scorers on the East coast. He is a combo-guard with a quick release on a consistent jumpshot, and uses a strong two-way crossover to break down the defense and penetrate the lane.

Smith is not the most athletic player, but he plays with a New York-sized chip on his shoulder and competes his tail off. Because he’s so skinny, though, Smith has difficulty finishing through contact. He often maneuvers his way into the lane only to lose his balance or get blocked.

If he fills out his frame, Smith could develop into a dynamite player for the Flyers.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C- Matt Kavanaugh
F — Devin Oliver (Sr)
F — Dyshawn Pierre (So)
G — Vee Sanford (Sr)
G — Dayshon Smith (Jr)

The Flyers lost their starting point guard and best player, Kevin Dillard, to graduation. Now coach Archie Miller will have to decide how to fill that void —Vee Sanford and Devin Oliver are secured in the starting lineup, as is (presumably) 6-10 senior Matt Kavanaugh (suspended last season). The last guard spot will either go to Ohio State transfer Jordan Sibert or Smith.

Regardless if Smith starts, he will get minutes as a freshman and should eventually be Dayton’s starting PG, beginning in 2014-15.

Greg McClinton | Wake Forest
SF, 6-6, 185

It’s been a difficult nine months for McClinton, who tore his right ACL last January for the second time in his young career (he first tore it in the 8th grade). Wake Forest coach Jeff Bzdelik speculates McClinton will return by Christmas, but no one knows what kind of player he’ll be post-surgery.

McClinton is an athletic small forward who can score inside the 3-point line. He has a strong basketball IQ and can finish with a variety of offensive moves in the half court. If he maintains his explosive bounce when he returns, he’ll have a chance to develop in Wake Forest’s system and eventually become a go-to player.

Going forward, he’ll have to develop his perimeter skills, and add weight to his frame. He’s a hard worker and has improved throughout his high school career, so although he has a tough road ahead of him, I’m not going to bet against McClinton just yet.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Devin Thomas (So)
F — Travis McKie (Sr)
G — Arnaud William Adala Moto (So)
G — Coron Williams (Sr)
G — Codi Miller-McIntyre (So)

McClinton is Wake’s best recruit, so he should see minutes upon his return. All eyes will be on his knee, and how his game has progressed (or regressed) since the injury.

Demetrius Dyson | UMass
SG/SF, 6-5

Quick Thoughts: Let me put this out there: I’ve only seen Dyson play once, in a “best of Memphis” All-Star Game that rewarded highlights more than defense.

However, the game featured about 20 high-quality recruits from the Class of 2013, ’14 and ’15, and Dyson was among the six or seven most impressive players at the event.

Dyson committed to UMass unusually late, in May of his senior year. He is a cousin of former Memphis swingman Rodney Carney, who played at Memphis when UMass coach Derek Kellogg was an assistant there, so there is some connection. But in terms of what contribution he will make at UMass – I’m not sure.

What I do know: A lengthy 6-5 shooting guard, Dyson showcased lots of skill off the dribble, pulling-up on a dime and converting a number of jumpshots at the event. He digs in on defense, using length and lateral quickness to deflect passes and disrupt shots. He’s athletic enough to defend both guard positions, and there’s no question he has mid-major abilities. I’m not sure if he has any NBA potential whatsoever (I doubt it), but for someone who is completely off the radar, at some point I think Dyson will make noise in the A-10.

How He Fits:

Projected Starting Lineup
C — Cady Lalanne (Jr)
F — Raphiael Putney (Sr)
G — Derrick Gordon (So)
G — Trey Davis (So)
G — Chaz Williams (Sr)

With a young backcourt (excluding Chaz Williams), there are several UMass guards competing for limited minutes. Dyson will have to earn playing time in practice, and time will tell if he has what it takes.